Halifax June 2022

[dances with sheeple]

57 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Most people are. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/may2022

Not the the really important ones like railway workers though?

[adarmo]

26 minutes ago, fellow said:

Yeah you've been lucky but what about all the people renewing their mortgage this year or next year and what if the looming recession significantly lowers your earnings. I was one of the unlucky ones in the last recession and was made redundant in 2009 just as I was hoping to buy, and It took me a few years to get my earnings back up to a decent level.

I'd say rates are basically the same as they were two years ago. 

I don't think I've been super lucky. Most people are getting excellent nominal pay rises this year (see link in post above). 

Obviously being made redundant is not great at all, certainly in 2009 with things really in the doldrums but we had virtually zero inflation back then too. 

Lots of what ifs and all risks but most people don't get made redundant in a recession. 

[adarmo]

6 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Not the the really important ones like railway workers though?

I'd automate the tube. Glad that DLR and LizzieLine (in part) have this function. 

They don't like it? Leave. If they're so badly paid why is it still a closed shop?

[dances with sheeple]

1 hour ago, adarmo said:

I'd automate the tube. Glad that DLR and LizzieLine (in part) have this function. 

They don't like it? Leave. If they're so badly paid why is it still a closed shop?

The more you automate the less people will be willing to bid up the price of your house, because they won`t have a job.

[adarmo]

Just now, dances with sheeple said:

The more you automate the less people will be willing to bid up the price of your house, because they won`t have a job.

Lol, that line has been trotted out since the industrial revolution. 

[dances with sheeple]

3 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Lol, that line has been trotted out since the industrial revolution. 

ECB are right now doing the robots job for them, ensuring dummies don`t get any more access to cheap debt for houses, LOL.

[fellow]

19 hours ago, adarmo said:

most people don't get made redundant in a recession. 

True but you only need a small percentage to turn a market into negative territory.

[adarmo]

21 minutes ago, fellow said:

True but you only need a small percentage to turn a market into negative territory.

It seems you're arguing from a micro and macro position simultaneously?

The risk of losing your job is micro. If you suspect you won't or have savings enough for a couple of years ;living you're fine. 

You are correct on the macro level. Markets are made at the margins. This though suggests you're trying to time the market? My experience of doing this myself in 2009 wasn't great. 

[fellow]

3 hours ago, adarmo said:

This though suggests you're trying to time the market?

Yeah that's kind of the whole purpose of this web site.

[dugsbody]

On 08/06/2022 at 18:36, Horseradish said:

It is for sure. But the risk now is that the decision on rigging is potentially being wrenched out of the riggers' hands. They want it to go up and stay up, but they may not get what they want.

No, maybe not.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

23 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

The more you automate the less people will be willing to bid up the price of your house, because they won`t have a job.

What are there just over 3,000 tube drivers in London? And they can get free tube travel from any station. Yeah must be them bidding up London house prices. 🤣🤣🤣🤣 

[Twenty Something]

5 hours ago, fellow said:

Yeah that's kind of the whole purpose of this web site.

Christ what an enormous fail that’s been then 😂

[dances with sheeple]

On 10/06/2022 at 14:10, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

What are there just over 3,000 tube drivers in London? And they can get free tube travel from any station. Yeah must be them bidding up London house prices. 🤣🤣🤣🤣 

Obviously "automation" covers more than just the tube (but you already knew that didn`t you?) What has been bidding up London house prices is too much cheap credit.

[winkie]

3 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Obviously "automation" covers more than just the tube (but you already knew that didn`t you?) What has been bidding up London house prices is too much cheap credit.

.......& a safe haven for foreign money, ask no questions?

[dances with sheeple]

10 minutes ago, winkie said:

.......& a safe haven for foreign money, ask no questions?

Yes but that is the higher end stuff.

[PrincessNutNut]

On 6/9/2022 at 11:21 AM, PrincessNutNut said:

Asked and answered in that thread.
5 years or lower can be 80%, while 5 years or higher can be 50%.

Why? 
Because 5 year mortgages can be included in both datasets.

Edit:

Just to get ahead of semantics: If you take out a 5 year mortgage, on day 2 of it you are "under 5 years". In fact the average remaining length on 5 year mortgages should be very close to 2.5 years.

Following on from above.

From the BoE statements today:

Quote

However, the Bank said about 80% of UK mortgages are on fixed rate deals, and despite 40% needing to be refinanced over the next 18 months, mortgage payers were in a good position to afford higher interest bills.

40% need to refinance within 18 months. With 20% on flex rates, that's arguably not "a good position" in a rising credit rate environment.

 

 

[TheResponsibleHouseBuyer]

14 minutes ago, PrincessNutNut said:

Following on from above.

From the BoE statements today:

40% need to refinance within 18 months. With 20% on flex rates, that's arguably not "a good position" in a rising credit rate environment.

 

 

Wonder if that includes the Help to Buy people. I think the first cohorts are now having to repay? If the value of the house has gone up doesn't that mean they owe more/have to pay more?

[Si1]

39 minutes ago, TheResponsibleHouseBuyer said:

Wonder if that includes the Help to Buy people. I think the first cohorts are now having to repay? If the value of the house has gone up doesn't that mean they owe more/have to pay more?

I think the monthly I interest they pay is unchanged but it would cost them more to pay off the equity loan.

[TheResponsibleHouseBuyer]

6 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I think the monthly I interest they pay is unchanged but it would cost them more to pay off the equity loan.

I see, but assuming that the HTB equity loan interest is already high, then add the remortgaged part to that and put the two chunks of debt i would assume this would add up substantially?

So e.g. someone bought a flat for £100,000 paid 5% deposit £5,000. Got the HTB at £20,000 that means the £75,000 gets remortgaged at a higher rate, plus the high rate of the existing HTB loan.

That's going to be a rough ride?

Obviously the above are basic numbers, but if you multiply this by someone buying on the HTB cap then they would owe lots.

[Si1]

10 minutes ago, TheResponsibleHouseBuyer said:

I see, but assuming that the HTB equity loan interest is already high, then add the remortgaged part to that and put the two chunks of debt i would assume this would add up substantially?

So e.g. someone bought a flat for £100,000 paid 5% deposit £5,000. Got the HTB at £20,000 that means the £75,000 gets remortgaged at a higher rate, plus the high rate of the existing HTB loan.

That's going to be a rough ride?

Obviously the above are basic numbers, but if you multiply this by someone buying on the HTB cap then they would owe lots.

Yes.

[TheResponsibleHouseBuyer]

1 minute ago, Si1 said:

Yes.

Ok makes sense. I wonder then what happens if they don't repay? Do the government ask for the banks to buy their share, then repossess and sell? Does the taxpayer pay the interest to keep the house?

As bad as it is, i wouldn't mind buying a HTB repo, most of them will still have new build guarantee and they would have to sell it below the HTB inflated price...... A win win!

I wonder what it would take to get there, and whether we are arriving at this point?

[HovelinHove]

19 minutes ago, TheResponsibleHouseBuyer said:

Ok makes sense. I wonder then what happens if they don't repay? Do the government ask for the banks to buy their share, then repossess and sell? Does the taxpayer pay the interest to keep the house?

As bad as it is, i wouldn't mind buying a HTB repo, most of them will still have new build guarantee and they would have to sell it below the HTB inflated price...... A win win!

I wonder what it would take to get there, and whether we are arriving at this point?

I don’ believe we will see repossessions with people being thrown out of their homes, I believe we will see technical repossessions, whereby the bank takes ownership of a property when a home owner defaults, but lets them live there at a negotiated rent…which the government will probably pay if they are unemployed, then when they are able to get back in the mortgage prison, the bank will sell it back to them…or they will just carry on renting, or go on some rent to buy scheme (paid for by the government). this will all fall under some government scheme.

I do not believe any government will let a 90s style crash occur again, so I doubt there will be many cheap houses that have been repossessed available to buy.

Edited to add: any scheme would be underwritten by the government so in the event the banks make a paper loss, it would be fall on the tax payer to cough up. Think of Lloyds and RBS after 2008. Think of furlough and bounce back loans.

Edited July 5, 2022 by HovelinHove

[TheResponsibleHouseBuyer]

11 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I don’ believe we will see repossessions with people being thrown out of their homes, I believe we will see technical repossessions, whereby the bank takes ownership of a property when a home owner defaults, but lets them live there at a negotiated rent…which the government will probably pay if they are unemployed, then when they are able to get back in the mortgage prison, the bank will sell it back to them…or they will just carry on renting, or go on some rent to buy scheme (paid for by the government). this will all fall under some government scheme.

I do not believe any government will let a 90s style crash occur again, so I doubt there will be many cheap houses that have been repossessed available to buy.

Edited to add: any scheme would be underwritten by the government so in the event the banks make a paper loss, it would be fall on the tax payer to cough up. Think of Lloyds and RBS after 2008. Think of furlough and bounce back loans.

Great, does make logical sense. So i should just take a HTB loan as big as i can get and sod the rest.

Thanks British taxpayer people, i will head off now and do that

It explains once again that the government will do whatever it takes to stop a HPC.

[HovelinHove]

Pretty much sums it up. I think it’s more than just stopping an HPC though, I believe it ties in with the great reset agenda of “you will own nothing and be ****ing miserable slaves forever”. Keeping the cost of buying property forever high and out of the reach of ordinary people (even BTL landlords now), means an eventual transfer of all land and property to corporations or government entities, removing any residual financial independence from people.