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House Price Collapse Continues In California

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http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...orniahomes.html

By Alex Veiga

Associated Press

12:16 a.m. February 17, 2006

California homeowners saw their home equity swell during the real estate boom as home prices soared, but those now looking to sell or trade up to bigger homes are finding it increasingly harder to find buyers.
The number of homes sold in the state fell to a four-year low in January, the fourth month in a row
that annual homes sales have declined. The statewide rate of home price increases peaked in June 2004 at 23.2 percent and has gradually declined ever since.
“Sellers are becoming nervous about how long it's taking to sell,” said Aaron Zapata, executive vice president of Century 21
In all, 38,300 new and resale houses and condominiums were sold statewide last month,
a decline of 27.5 percent
from 52,800 in December and down 9.5 percent from 42,300 in January 2005, the real estate research firm DataQuick Information Systems reported Thursday.
“Buyers are nervous that they're buying at the top of the market,” Zapata said. “Most offers now are coming in under full price,
somewhere up to 10 percent less than asking price.”
Norris has forecast a coming “crash” of the state's housing market and he warns that the current slowdown may not be the best time for real estate investors to buy a home, though buyers looking to stay in a property for 10 years or more may not find lower mortgage rates for some time.
“I would prefer to be a buyer when I knew the market was going to be on the upswing for a number of years,” Norris said. “This could be about a five-year downturn in price, starting very gradually and building up momentum.”

Buyers getting nervous that they are buying at the top of the market......buyers in the UK be warned!

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In all, 38,300 new and resale houses and condominiums were sold statewide last month, a decline of 27.5 percent from 52,800 in December and down 9.5 percent from 42,300 in January 2005, the real estate research firm DataQuick Information Systems reported Thursday.

I hate to rain on your parade,

but,

it is normal for house sales to decline by more than 27.5 percent between December and January.

The 9.5% decline between January 2005 and January 2006 is far more significant, and the increase in housing inventory and fall in prices more significant yet.

The US bubble is bursting alright; it's just that the highlighted statistic doesn't actually support the proposition. We bears should not fall into the trap of using data that seems to support our case, or we're no better than the VI's.

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If the California market does crash that will have sihnificant implications globally because the Californian ecoomy if the 5th largest in the world in its' own right, I think.

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I hate to rain on your parade,

but,

it is normal for house sales to decline by more than 27.5 percent between December and January.

The 9.5% decline between January 2005 and January 2006 is far more significant, and the increase in housing inventory and fall in prices more significant yet.

The US bubble is bursting alright; it's just that the highlighted statistic doesn't actually support the proposition. We bears should not fall into the trap of using data that seems to support our case, or we're no better than the VI's.

January is normally a better month for house sales in CA as the holiday season bogs sales down in December. Apart from that, here is another article which shows the all important median price dropping $104,000 for new home sales:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...-bn13homes.html

SAN DIEGO – San Diego County resale housing prices began the new year inching moderately upward, but a record drop in new housing prices pushed the overall median down from December levels, DataQuick Information Systems reported today.
The January median stood at $490,000, down 5 percent from December but still up 2.5 percent from year-ago levels – the lowest year-over-year rise in nearly seven years.
Sales dropped from 4,262 transactions in December to only 2,763 last month, reflecting the usual seasonal pause in buying and selling activity.
Resale single-family home prices rose to $554,500, compared to $550,000 in December and $530,000 in January 2005. Resale condo prices went up to $395,000 from $390,000 in December and $380,000 in January last year. The latest figures were not records for their categories.
But, in the new-housing category, which included newly built homes as well as apartments converted to condos for sale, there was a $104,000 drop from $539,500 in December to $435,000 last month.
That dollar decline represented an all-time record change, based on DataQuick reports back to 1988; while the 19.4 percent decline was the second biggest after a 24 percent decline recorded in July

Some record falls going on. San Diego is seen as the bellweather market for the American Housing bubble with the most unsustainable prices in relation to incomes. Median income in SD is around $50k per household with the median price of a home in the high 500's.

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The US bubble is bursting alright; it's just that the highlighted statistic doesn't actually support the proposition. We bears should not fall into the trap of using data that seems to support our case, or we're no better than the VI's.

I agree Ajh, but I can see the crash. It started last spring. Prices stayed high/ kept climing, but if you were watching you could see it starting. I live 40 miles from Calif. A year ago people were comimg from Calif and buying "investment" properity, running the prices way up. Now they are gone, properity is sitting. Centex (a new home builder) is having a 'sale' today. Two years ago, Centex had a waiting list for their waiting list. I'd love to check out their sale, but it's my son's brithday & he seems to think he is having a party.

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I agree Ajh, but I can see the crash. It started last spring. Prices stayed high/ kept climing, but if you were watching you could see it starting. I live 40 miles from Calif. A year ago people were comimg from Calif and buying "investment" properity, running the prices way up. Now they are gone, properity is sitting. Centex (a new home builder) is having a 'sale' today. Two years ago, Centex had a waiting list for their waiting list. I'd love to check out their sale, but it's my son's brithday & he seems to think he is having a party.

Some friends of mine bought in the Inland Empire and watched their home rise 30% in a year and bought a couple more on leveraged funds. Now they have 3 homes with interest only loans on all. I wonder how they are sleeping at night.

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it is normal for house sales to decline by more than 27.5 percent between December and January.

The 9.5% decline between January 2005 and January 2006 is far more significant, and the increase in housing inventory and fall in prices more significant yet.

The US bubble is bursting alright; it's just that the highlighted statistic doesn't actually support the proposition. We bears should not fall into the trap of using data that seems to support our case, or we're no better than the VI's.

Agreed. YOY is king when claiming that a house price crash is in progress.

Billy Shears

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Some friends of mine bought in the Inland Empire and watched their home rise 30% in a year and bought a couple more on leveraged funds. Now they have 3 homes with interest only loans on all. I wonder how they are sleeping at night.

No doubt they are sleeping like babies.

.

.

.

Waking up every couple of hours screaming because they've wet themselves :ph34r: .

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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