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eagerbeaver

Please Explain Relationship With Other Countries

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Hi. Visit the site regularly (daily - am now addicted!!) and wait patiently (desperately) for the HPC to occur. :unsure: I am not an economist and although I endeavour to make sense of all the posts that quote CPI, IRs, gold, unemployment and try to relate them to HPC, I do not understand the connection to other countries. Please explain how US etc housing crashes (as they now seem to be) will impact on us? In laymans terms please. Thanks :)

BTW - laymans explanation of how all economic indicators (which seem to come in almost hourly) will impact HPC would also be good - like graphs very much makes things much easier to understand.

Also are there historical graphs which show relationship between different countries house prices anywhere?

Sorry if these questions asked previously but I so want to believe I am still doing the right thing (STR) and that I don't have too much longer to wait :unsure:;):huh::)

Thanks

(and please no more eagerbeaver sexist comments!! <_<:)

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Hi. Visit the site regularly (daily - am now addicted!!) and wait patiently (desperately) for the HPC to occur. :unsure: I am not an economist and although I endeavour to make sense of all the posts that quote CPI, IRs, gold, unemployment and try to relate them to HPC, I do not understand the connection to other countries. Please explain how US etc housing crashes (as they now seem to be) will impact on us? In laymans terms please. Thanks :)

You want it in Laymans terms so here it is:

The housing booms occurred arond the world at the same time (US, Eurozone, UK, New Zealand, Australia etc. separated by a few years). Therefore, they will fall together (again, separated by a few years).

Economics related to the global economy, I would say, can be used to back up the statements above, but that wouldn't be for the Layman.

Edited by karhu

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You want it in Laymans terms so here it is:

The housing booms occurred arond the world at the same time (US, Eurozone, UK, New Zealand, Australia etc. separated by a few years). Therefore, they will fall together (again, separated by a few years).

Economics related to the global economy, I would say, can be used to back up the statements above, but that wouldn't be for the Layman.

Thanks for the reply Karhu. You say separated by a few years, how many years are we separated from the crashes in Australia / US would you say then?

thanks

EB

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Thanks for the reply Karhu. You say separated by a few years, how many years are we separated from the crashes in Australia / US would you say then?

thanks

EB

US happening as we speak.

AUS/UK within 2 years.

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US happening as we speak.

You are just making it up.

AUS/UK within 2 years.

Now how long have I been hearing this? 2 years and there will be a crash. This time next year there will be a crash. In 2009 there will be a crash. I have been hearing this for years. Has it crashed yet ? No. Will it crash, probably not. Take no notice of this person's advice it will seriously damage your health/wealth/sanity.

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If there were clear crashes in the USA or in Australia while they have lower interest rates than in the UK, this would undermine one of the main claims for no property crash. This could affect consumer confidence in the UK property market. Not the major factor in the relationship, but one that could make a difference.

Billy Shears

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You are just making it up.

Why don't you do some reading, idiot:

http://www.modbee.com/business/story/11817...-12533325c.html

http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctime...ss/13895497.htm

http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kpbs/new...TICLE_ID=879993

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/local...iness-headlines

Will it crash, probably not.

Probably not!!!!!!

Not so confident are we?

If there were clear crashes in the USA or in Australia

I think that "crash" is the wrong word. It's going to be a long drawn out process of big and small falls and some dead-cat bounces. Only after a year or so, when you can see that prices have changed considerably with respect to salaries, will it become obvious that a correction has occurred.

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You are just making it up.

Now how long have I been hearing this? 2 years and there will be a crash. This time next year there will be a crash. In 2009 there will be a crash. I have been hearing this for years. Has it crashed yet ? No. Will it crash, probably not. Take no notice of this person's advice it will seriously damage your health/wealth/sanity.

Stop visiting this site an you may hear it less.

"I was on HPC and just couldn't understand why they kept mentioning a House Price Crash!"

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Why don't you do some reading, idiot:

http://www.modbee.com/business/story/11817...-12533325c.html

Thanks for the listings. I read the first one and when I got to this....

'Broward's median sales price rose 26 percent to $377,300, while Palm Beach's median increased 23 percent to $415,800. Miami-Dade's median rose 29 percent to $375,900'

I thought rose 26 percent ? rose 23 percent ? rose 29 percent ? And then I thought is that what a crash is then ? You know, when prices rise ? And then I thought, it's just all wishful thinking on your part, crash my ass.

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Stop visiting this site an you may hear it less.

"I was on HPC and just couldn't understand why they kept mentioning a House Price Crash!"

If the person you refer to wasn,t concerned then the person you refer to would not be on this site.....clearly there are those who do not want to believe what is increasingly obvious will happen due to the stark fundamentals staring them in the face.

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Thanks for the listings. I read the first one and when I got to this....

'Broward's median sales price rose 26 percent to $377,300, while Palm Beach's median increased 23 percent to $415,800. Miami-Dade's median rose 29 percent to $375,900'

I thought rose 26 percent ? rose 23 percent ? rose 29 percent ? And then I thought is that what a crash is then ? You know, when prices rise ? And then I thought, it's just all wishful thinking on your part, crash my ass.

What you're looking at are rises for 2004 and 2005. mmmmm. That's in the past, isn't it?

Although prices rose significantly compared with the fourth quarter of 2004, they have remained flat for the past six months, and experts say that will continue in 2006.
Thornberg: "Whatever you do, don't buy outside your current financial means and expect appreciation to bail you out. That's the fundamental rule for real estate right now. Be very, very cautious.
Linda Rudner of Boca Raton bought a two-bedroom condominium near the beach as an investment last year. She fixed it up, then listed it at $450,000 but later dropped her asking price to $399,000.

You do the math on that one :lol:

"I won't do it anymore," Rudner, 51, said Wednesday. "I'm too afraid. There's too much on the market."

The rising inventory of existing single-family homes is slowing sales across South Florida. Closings dropped during the fourth quarter, compared with the same period a year ago, the Florida Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

Sales fell by 35 percent in Broward County and 23 percent in Palm Beach County, the Orlando-based Realtors group said. Miami-Dade sales declined by 38 percent.

:lol::lol::lol:

Edited by karhu

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Ummmmmm - it is called a global housing boom. :P

Tried selling a house in Australia lately??? I have. Fanny Magnet is such a troll. Take my word for it, in reality (laymans land that is) prices have slipped back to barely what they were in 2003. Whether there is a crash in the UK now or not, coming or not, you cannot deny that there is one underway in Aus.

If it can happen in the US and Aus, what is so special about the UK? Besides the fact that it is full of people who can't see the forest for the trees. Don't discount it just yet.

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Ummmmmm - it is called a global housing boom. :P

Tried selling a house in Australia lately??? I have. Fanny Magnet is such a troll. Take my word for it, in reality (laymans land that is) prices have slipped back to barely what they were in 2003. Whether there is a crash in the UK now or not, coming or not, you cannot deny that there is one underway in Aus.

If it can happen in the US and Aus, what is so special about the UK? Besides the fact that it is full of people who can't see the forest for the trees. Don't discount it just yet.

Wow. You're even more bearish about AUS than me, but that's because you have first hand information.

There are huge amounts of property piling up in UK/AUS and US that are just not selling. Only the good properties are selling right now, which is skewing the figures and keeping the mean/median, whatever you want to call it, from falling. Eventually, these properties have to be sold. When they do, the median will fall and keep falling for a long time.

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Tried selling a house in Australia lately??? I have. Fanny Magnet is such a troll.

No but I have in London very recently. It was dead easy, took just a couple of days. Queuing up my estate agent said. Sweetner was I pay their stamp duty - big deal. There's plenty of life in this boom yet. Too much cheap money sloshing around. Face the facts, it's the amateur pie-chart analysts who are in denial.

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Yes I am, bitter experience and you could say, as I still own the house and rent it out at a miniscule yeild, a crash might not be what I would have wanted (at one point). It has taken me a while to accept it and get over it. What can I do? That's the way the cookie has crumbled. I once was (an ignorant) bull, really did believe all the spin (so can understand that). Have learnt my lesson and hope that I can help to warn people just to be very, very, very careful in the current climate. I wish someone had been able to convince me. We put our house on the market in 2004 ($540k), dropped to $450K 12 mths later - that is $100k!! Still nothing. Was getting too close to the bone to what we paid for it, so decided to hang on to it. Now we have no house to live in the UK and no money to buy a house with. Renting.

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Thanks for the listings. I read the first one and when I got to this....

'Broward's median sales price rose 26 percent to $377,300, while Palm Beach's median increased 23 percent to $415,800. Miami-Dade's median rose 29 percent to $375,900'

I thought rose 26 percent ? rose 23 percent ? rose 29 percent ? And then I thought is that what a crash is then ? You know, when prices rise ? And then I thought, it's just all wishful thinking on your part, crash my ass.

Now calm down on the thinking. Dont hurt yourself :P

And STB has a point. If you dont want porn dont visit porn sites. SIMPLE :blink:

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Yes I am, bitter experience and you could say, as I still own the house and rent it out at a miniscule yeild, a crash might not be what I would have wanted (at one point). It has taken me a while to accept it and get over it. What can I do? That's the way the cookie has crumbled. I once was (an ignorant) bull, really did believe all the spin (so can understand that). Have learnt my lesson and hope that I can help to warn people just to be very, very, very careful in the current climate. I wish someone had been able to convince me. We put our house on the market in 2004 ($540k), dropped to $450K 12 mths later - that is $100k!! Still nothing. Was getting too close to the bone to what we paid for it, so decided to hang on to it. Now we have no house to live in the UK and no money to buy a house with. Renting.

Sorry to hear about your predicament. I'm also a bear through experience.

I found that letting a house was not as easy as some people have made it out to be. You are at the mercy of supply and demand, which can affect your rent income (often negatively) and on top of that you can expect void periods, tax and maintenance :( The figures didn't stack up for me, to be honest.

Captial gain was the only game in town and now that's going negative.

I'm glad I got out of this crazy property game while I could.

Edited by karhu

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No but I have in London very recently. It was dead easy, took just a couple of days. Queuing up my estate agent said. Sweetner was I pay their stamp duty - big deal. There's plenty of life in this boom yet. Too much cheap money sloshing around. Face the facts, it's the amateur pie-chart analysts who are in denial.

Why did you need a sweetener at all if the market is booming?? I sold my flat for asking price in London in 2002 (in less than 48 hours) - no sweetener required. Yeah, big deal indeed. Did I say there was not life still in it?? I don't claim to be able to see the future, or to be a **** magnet for that matter, all I can talk about is my own experience. London, booming? Where, in Westminster? Anyway, AWOOGA. :o

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Hi. Visit the site regularly (daily - am now addicted!!) and wait patiently (desperately) for the HPC to occur. :unsure: I am not an economist and although I endeavour to make sense of all the posts that quote CPI, IRs, gold, unemployment and try to relate them to HPC, I do not understand the connection to other countries. Please explain how US etc housing crashes (as they now seem to be) will impact on us? In laymans terms please. Thanks :)

The Chinese are the fastest growing ethic minority group in the uk. They are able to come and live here because they are millionaire investors in the UK economy. They buy houses in which to live and for investment purposes. We already know about the close relationship between the Indians and the UK -they are doing exactly the same with their surplus capital. Both these economies have rapid economic growth. It is the reason why UK house prices have kept growing albeit by a small percentage and will continue to do so in 2007 at 5%. This is against the prediction of very well respected economist who assumed that the absence of FTB's will lead a fall in prices. Not so, the UK market is now completely unpredictable. The options are for FTB's - get on the ladder or move to countries where house prices are more sensible.

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If there were clear crashes in the USA or in Australia while they have lower interest rates than in the UK, this would undermine one of the main claims for no property crash. This could affect consumer confidence in the UK property market. Not the major factor in the relationship, but one that could make a difference.

Billy Shears

Crash officially underway on the West Coast of US:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...-bn13homes.html

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...orniahomes.html

Median down $104k etc etc.

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I sold my flat for asking price in London in 2002 (in less than 48 hours)

Let's see, what's the difference between selling prices in 2002 and 2006 ? How much would you say in £sd ? I'll tell you it's a lot. A hell of a lot. It's all about timing I suppose.

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Let's see, what's the difference between selling prices in 2002 and 2006 ? How much would you say in £sd ? I'll tell you it's a lot. A hell of a lot. It's all about timing I suppose.

:P:P:P:P:P

I sold it for 190k, bought it for 65k in 1997. Did not spend one sent on it. It sold last July (after quite a while on the market) for 230k - however, turned single bedroom into kitchen (new kitchen), therefore making the kitchen a second double bedroom, plus new bathroom - so, I figure they had to spend a bit of money, added value by making another double bedroom and had 3 years of boom. Hmmmmm, I think I did better out of it. Put that in ya pipe and smoke it, smart a$$. What a tw*t. Do you know it all then? What do you think I did with the equity, dopey?

:P:P:P:P:P

I sold it for 190k, bought it for 65k in 1997. Did not spend one sent on it. It sold last July (after quite a while on the market) for 230k - however, turned single bedroom into kitchen (new kitchen), therefore making the kitchen a second double bedroom, plus new bathroom - so, I figure they had to spend a bit of money, added value by making another double bedroom and had 3 years of boom. Hmmmmm, I think I did better out of it. Put that in ya pipe and smoke it, smart a$$. What a tw*t. Do you know it all then? What do you think I did with the equity, dopey?

And, I bet it has not gone up in value since it was sold in 2005

And, sent was supposed to be cent (or penny)!

I'm so happy, oh so happy.

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The Chinese are the fastest growing ethic minority group in the uk. They are able to come and live here because they are millionaire investors in the UK economy. They buy houses in which to live and for investment purposes. We already know about the close relationship between the Indians and the UK -they are doing exactly the same with their surplus capital. Both these economies have rapid economic growth. It is the reason why UK house prices have kept growing albeit by a small percentage and will continue to do so in 2007 at 5%. This is against the prediction of very well respected economist who assumed that the absence of FTB's will lead a fall in prices. Not so, the UK market is now completely unpredictable. The options are for FTB's - get on the ladder or move to countries where house prices are more sensible.

What you fail to realise is that these "investors" will pull the plug as soon as HPI moves negative and invest somewhere else. That will make the correction worse.

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What you fail to realise is that these "investors" will pull the plug as soon as HPI moves negative and invest somewhere else. That will make the correction worse.

And if foreign investment is keeping up house prices, then it undermines the argument that demand for housing must remain high as everyone has to live somewhere.

BubbaF1

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Thanks for the listings. I read the first one and when I got to this....

'Broward's median sales price rose 26 percent to $377,300, while Palm Beach's median increased 23 percent to $415,800. Miami-Dade's median rose 29 percent to $375,900'

I thought rose 26 percent ? rose 23 percent ? rose 29 percent ? And then I thought is that what a crash is then ? You know, when prices rise ? And then I thought, it's just all wishful thinking on your part, crash my ass.

Read this.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1628397&page=1

Centex — one of the nation's largest home builders — has been running full-page ads in papers from Virginia to the California coast touting limited-time offers of $150,000 off a new house.

The company is hoping the steep discounts will lure hesitant buyers into their model homes and sales centers at a time when mortgage rates are rising and the growth in home values is petering out.

$150K off. Sounds like a new "value" for the area to me. I would be pooping in my pants if a bought 3 months ago.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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