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House Price Crash Forum

Is it starting?


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10 minutes ago, byron78 said:

It won't crash.

But yes. Ordinary people being priced out of the UK started a long time ago.

Country is a tax haven above all else now.

 

 

For me, staying level or a slight decline with less buyers in the market will be good enough.  I'm not expecting a massive crash either but a dip back to 2018 levels would do for me.  I know that's different from many people's sentiment but it works for me.

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Just now, Gurgle said:

For me, staying level or a slight decline with less buyers in the market will be good enough.  I'm not expecting a massive crash either but a dip back to 2018 levels would do for me.  I know that's different from many people's sentiment but it works for me.

It still won't happen.

I am of course being deeply cynical.

Tbh, after our own chancellor was exposed as a tax cheat elite, if ordinary people can't get it together enough to spot what is actually driving them out of the country's housing stock, they probably never will.

UK needs to close Trust Fund and global elite loopholes ASAP. I honestly don't think it will though.

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11 minutes ago, byron78 said:

It still won't happen.

I am of course being deeply cynical.

Tbh, after our own chancellor was exposed as a tax cheat elite, if ordinary people can't get it together enough to spot what is actually driving them out of the country's housing stock, they probably never will.

UK needs to close Trust Fund and global elite loopholes ASAP. I honestly don't think it will though.

I understand your cynicism.  There are not many principled politicians left in the world who will do the right thing for ordinary people rather than their rich mates.  I don't know if it still is the case, but properties bought by trusts were even exempt for stamp duty at some point too which is shocking.  I think Canada has the right idea with heavily restricting purchases of properties to non-nationals.  UK has always had an open door for foreigners on this.  40 years ago it maybe didn't matter so much, however with the rise of cheap credit and mega rich people from the east trying to hide their illegally earned millions from dictators, the system needs a massive rethink.  I very much doubt labour or any other party would manage to fix this either, mostly because I'm not convinced the collective intelligence of the labour machine is great enough to even see the problem as they're so blinded by their 1970s mentality.

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22 minutes ago, Gurgle said:

For me, staying level or a slight decline with less buyers in the market will be good enough.  I'm not expecting a massive crash either but a dip back to 2018 levels would do for me.  I know that's different from many people's sentiment but it works for me.

They will fall in real terms, adjusted by inflation. For a typical mortgage buyer that will not make much difference since mortgage rates will be higher. They will still have to spend around 30% of their income on mortgage payments. 

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42 minutes ago, Gurgle said:

I understand your cynicism.  There are not many principled politicians left in the world who will do the right thing for ordinary people rather than their rich mates.  I don't know if it still is the case, but properties bought by trusts were even exempt for stamp duty at some point too which is shocking.  I think Canada has the right idea with heavily restricting purchases of properties to non-nationals.  UK has always had an open door for foreigners on this.  40 years ago it maybe didn't matter so much, however with the rise of cheap credit and mega rich people from the east trying to hide their illegally earned millions from dictators, the system needs a massive rethink.  I very much doubt labour or any other party would manage to fix this either, mostly because I'm not convinced the collective intelligence of the labour machine is great enough to even see the problem as they're so blinded by their 1970s mentality.

What's a 1970s mentality? Anti-woke?

The Tories definitely have collective intelligence right now, but I'm not sure protecting billionaires and tax havens at all costs is going to be a vote winner.

Brexit looks to be a disaster as well. Entirely predictable in hindsight.

Edited by byron78
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1 minute ago, byron78 said:

What's a 1970s mentality? Anti-woke?

The Tories definitely have collective intelligence right now, but I'm not sure protecting billionaires and tax havens at all costs is going to be a vote winner.

Brexit looks to be a disaster as well. Entirely predictable in hindsight.

You say that like making negative comments about Labour implies I'm a Conservative supporter.  Frankly, our entire political class is a disaster.  A core part of the reason in my view is that politics has changed from something you go into AFTER a successful career to being a career in itself.  Most of these people have no real-world experience.  

However, the mentality of the core of the Labour MPs is still stuck in a trade union, anti-tory mindset, and that's what I mean by 1970s mentality.  They're fighting the wrong enemy at this point (the Tory party), but the world has changed and they need to be thinking about more global issues because it's the global trends which are affecting the standard of living of their core vote.  Brexit was always going to be a disaster for which you can, in part, thank Labour for doing a terrible job of supporting Remain.  Regarding the personnel in the Labour Party though, with a few exceptions, every time I hear a Labour politician speak I despair because most of them spout unintelligent rubbish.

  

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6 hours ago, bartelbe said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10702589/Biggest-home-loans-squeeze-decade.html?login#readerCommentsCommand-message-field

Banks are toughening lending criteria because of the cost of living crisis. No mortgages at large ratios to earnings mean no money to prop up the housing bubble.

Crash starting?

The crash is not starting for those that have more money than what they know what to do with.......we are the little people, we keep those that have more than enough in the manner that they have come accustomed to.......keep trickling your taxes and wages up to them.... Having said that, they are not happy people, they have the problem of protecting their wealth.....others don't have that problem, they just paye......and hope those in control use it responsibly......... thankfully transparency can see clearly what they do and choose not to do.;)

 

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7 hours ago, Gurgle said:

You say that like making negative comments about Labour implies I'm a Conservative supporter.  Frankly, our entire political class is a disaster.  A core part of the reason in my view is that politics has changed from something you go into AFTER a successful career to being a career in itself.  Most of these people have no real-world experience.  

However, the mentality of the core of the Labour MPs is still stuck in a trade union, anti-tory mindset, and that's what I mean by 1970s mentality.  They're fighting the wrong enemy at this point (the Tory party), but the world has changed and they need to be thinking about more global issues because it's the global trends which are affecting the standard of living of their core vote.  Brexit was always going to be a disaster for which you can, in part, thank Labour for doing a terrible job of supporting Remain.  Regarding the personnel in the Labour Party though, with a few exceptions, every time I hear a Labour politician speak I despair because most of them spout unintelligent rubbish.

  

It was all there in black and white in 2019, a blueprint to arrest and repair the UK's long social and economic decline.

Too bad you missed it. You wont be given another chance to vote for meaningful change.

3b5d0b2fb3ff36d36c6a0b65e974cad1.jpeg?wi

 

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There are plenty of people out there with money who will hoover up anything and everything.

Go look at eBay. There seems to be all sorts of rubbish being sold for ridiculous sums of money. The type of stuff that 20 years ago would be binned for the junk it really is.

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1 hour ago, Dreamcasting said:

There are plenty of people out there with money who will hoover up anything and everything.

Go look at eBay. There seems to be all sorts of rubbish being sold for ridiculous sums of money. The type of stuff that 20 years ago would be binned for the junk it really is.

Don’t give away my secret - I sold about £2000 of stuff from around the house in the 90 days around Christmas…

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11 hours ago, byron78 said:

It still won't happen.

I am of course being deeply cynical.

Tbh, after our own chancellor was exposed as a tax cheat elite, if ordinary people can't get it together enough to spot what is actually driving them out of the country's housing stock, they probably never will.

UK needs to close Trust Fund and global elite loopholes ASAP. I honestly don't think it will though.

In that case, as I asked you a few times, why the drama about keeping rates low and HTB schemes, and do you think "overseas money" is affected by changes to global credit/lending conditions?

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Around my area there is not much link between earnings and prices as its Northern Wages and Southern house prices.

The work from home has a logic .... but then it seems to get older and older around here so I am not seeing it.

For prices to fall around here they do not need to crash per say you get big price falls quite quickly as its an all or nothing market dependant on equity from another place.

Prices rise in the south...... 6 months and its here and the prices jump.

Prices fall .... and 6 months and it is dead and there will be little interest. 

Do mortgage offers still last 3 to six months? if so we still have people shopping/buying with yesterdays rates and the fun won't start for another few months.

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11 hours ago, zugzwang said:

It was all there in black and white in 2019, a blueprint to arrest and repair the UK's long social and economic decline.

Too bad you missed it. You wont be given another chance to vote for meaningful change.

3b5d0b2fb3ff36d36c6a0b65e974cad1.jpeg?wi

 

Never in my life would I vote for him or any party he leads.  His background is very concerning for national security and he has zero credibility with me.  

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10 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

In that case, as I asked you a few times, why the drama about keeping rates low and HTB schemes, and do you think "overseas money" is affected by changes to global credit/lending conditions?

The last one is hilarious. In a word "no". Rich people lend, we don't borrow (not unless we can then lend it out again at interest).

Rates have been kept low because the past decade and a bit has delivered the worst historic period for UK economic growth since records began. 

I appreciate this might have been presented as a "we're helping borrowers!" by some sections of the media.

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15 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Such an easy question to answer too.

"An adult human female"

And it's just that, no "additionally" needed ;)

Jo Swinson's mumbling and stuttering at this question was hilarious. Even Sir Kneel, who was prepared for it, wasn't entirely convincing or logical with his additional part to the definition also saying "it's the law". So that's okay then.

He also believes in "safe spaces for women", but as he defined "women" as including trans in a previous sentence, that statement must also include trans women. Oh dear Sir Kneel, not again.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/keir-starmer-debate-transgender-issues-trans-women-are-women-b987688.html

Edit. In my excitement, I forgot to answer to OP's question. Yes, it is starting. I have not felt this positive for a massive improvement in prices since 2008. So glad I have remained steady and not bought now, I really do enjoy my full nights' sleeps :D

Edited by Huggy
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3 hours ago, Gurgle said:

Never in my life would I vote for him or any party he leads.  His background is very concerning for national security and he has zero credibility with me.  

JC was the last great hope this country had of avoiding national bankruptcy.

Enjoy being poor.

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19 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

JC was the last great hope this country had of avoiding national bankruptcy.

Enjoy being poor.

They won't care. They'd happily eat rat and chips so long as they can point to ScRoUnGeRs and ImMiGraNts

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After my experience of the past 30 years, I don't think any government would allow an outright crash in nominal terms like we saw in the early 90s, but in real terms yes. They are basically doing that to us anyway by not raising interest rates. Organizations like Blackrock will be hoovering up well priced rentable properties on very favorable loan terms, as they have done in the states. New build neighborhoods in particular. With inflation running close to 10%, those who have cash/access to cheap money, will be looking for long term safety and land/property in good neighborhoods will always hold significant safety value as an asset on an island like ours which is hell bent on allowing hordes of people in each year. 

In the absence of a 1990s style repossession event, decent properties owned by middle class people won't go on the market if prices start dropping, they will just stay put. However, prices won't rise any more in the short term, which in effect means a YoY drop of 10% while inflation stays high. This will change once wages start to rise, when prices will start to go up again...I don't see that for a few years now though.

As an aside, my car has gone up value in the last 18 months by 25%. 1 year old E-class I bought with low mileage for 30k in 2018, was worth about 18k August 2020, now worth over 22k! I don't see property dropping much in this environment even if demand does fall. I do see governments and CBs in the West have crossed the freshold of inflation vs deflation, and will alow inflation to devalue debts and currencies for another year or two. People with any cash left will buy safe assets, and property is one of the safest on a medium to long timescale.

Edited by HovelinHove
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13 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

In that case, as I asked you a few times, why the drama about keeping rates low and HTB schemes, and do you think "overseas money" is affected by changes to global credit/lending conditions?

I rather suspect the sort of Chinese and Russians who want to park/hide their wealth in unoccupied London flats aren’t taking out a mortgage….

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