apom Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 (edited) I was told yesterday by someone who has an IO mortgage that I would never afford a home.. He seemed full of glea as he had heard something on the BBC radio.. He actually said that no one who has not bought already would ever be able to according to some expert.. I think he was missing a few points on how markets work.. But hell.. I pointed out that a lot of indices were showing drops, a few rises.. and to be honest it is hard to see what is going on through figures.. Then I tried to counter with and Merving King Said... and none of them knew who Mervin King was.. This explains the market. People are dumb, thank god with the stagnation we are seeing the dumb ones run out.. Merv's broken market is evident as no one is really moving up it.. I do wonder if he is right and if prices actually dropped in 1997.. What concerns me is the number buying at peak and just of peak this time.. many more will be hurt... and even if they survive the crash.. they can't pay of capital at all.. still can't Bless them, the herd instinct, the last man standing... etc.. How do these people explain to themselves sustainable 300% inflation in 7 years..?? how is it in their heads...?? Edited February 17, 2006 by apom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyShears Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 How do these people explain to themselves sustainable 300% inflation in 7 years..?? how is it in their heads...?? One of the problems is the large numbr of people who have predicted house price crashes year after year, and these crashes never seem to eventuate. Having people on a website claiming that the crash is definitely underway and there's no way back, and then there are claims that property has increased in price over the last few months, simply discredits the doom-mongers. I still believe that there must be a crash at some time as prices are unsustainable. But it's not surprising that a large section of the population believes that house prices can only go up and that the doom-mongers are wrong because for years now the so-called "VIs" have on the whole been right and the doom-mongers wrong. Billy Shears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The_Oldie Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 One of the problems is the large numbr of people who have predicted house price crashes year after year, and these crashes never seem to eventuate. Having people on a website claiming that the crash is definitely underway and there's no way back, and then there are claims that property has increased in price over the last few months, simply discredits the doom-mongers. I still believe that there must be a crash at some time as prices are unsustainable. But it's not surprising that a large section of the population believes that house prices can only go up and that the doom-mongers are wrong because for years now the so-called "VIs" have on the whole been right and the doom-mongers wrong. Billy Shears Use of "doom-mongers" three times in one post . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 I've been told "I will never buy" by some people. The reality is I could now afford a flat where they are living. But no, I would like a house not a flat in a crack den. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 Mervin king has sworn that inflation will not pay of our mortgages Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaedrus Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 (edited) He seemed full of glea as he had heard something on the BBC radio.. What a strange chap! Taking pleasure in the 'fact' that no-one else will be ever able to buy a home. Also this shows him up as being pretty thick, as even a superficial analysis of the statement shows up a number of flaws in the argument. Edited February 17, 2006 by Phaedrus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 He actually said that no one who has not bought already would ever be able to according to some expert. Can the housing market survive with no FBs at all? I hope this is a casual aquaintance as no real mate would be gleeful about the problems of another in this way. Sound like a bit of a **** to me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henrik Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Sound like a bit of a **** to me! Maybe he's a city banker? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 (edited) How do these people explain to themselves sustainable 300% inflation in 7 years..?? how is it in their heads...?? Well, maybe that inflation should have been spread over a longer period. When I FTBd in the mid 90s houses were at very low prices. What was amazing was that no one seemed to realise this until about 1998! From 1994 to 1997 the market around here was dead. Prices hardly rose at all across this time. No one seemed interested in property after the recession. There were doom monger muppets like Roger Bootle saying daft things like property was finished for a generation etc. The market did a lot of catching up over 1998- 2003. Houses are now maxed out wrt monthly affordability and overmaxed if you look at the real size of the debt. But I don't see rates shooting up in the near future. With the 10 year fixed deals at 4.69% flying around the market will cling on for some time yet. Also I don't care what Mervyn King promises about inflation. People who break promises can be replaced. People that can't be replaced can make and break as many promises as they like. (I see inflation rearing its ugly head in the future) Of course more people will be able to buy again in the future. The trouble for the bears on here is choosing the right time and the theoretical 'best time to buy' might be an extremely long way off. Use of "doom-mongers" three times in one post . I spotted 'crash' 4 times... Edited February 17, 2006 by Without_a_Paddle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
since the beginning Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Sounds like someone that has really struggled and stretched himself to get on the housing escalator. He is probably trying to convince himself that things will get better in a few years. Probably in a very similar position to a cancer patient believing a fake healer will cure him, every little tit-bit he can find about the fact house prices will never fall will make him feel better about his situation. He will be quoting ImUpNorth next calling him an expert in the field of property. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disillusioned ftb Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 How do these people explain to themselves sustainable 300% inflation in 7 years..?? how is it in their heads...?? I would have thought that not many people in the UK who have bought a house actualy understand what inflation is, let alone how it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sign_of_the_times Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Use of "doom-mongers" three times in one post . Makes a change from "The STR's" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sich Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 I was told yesterday by someone who has an IO mortgage that I would never afford a home.. He seemed full of glea as he had heard something on the BBC radio.. He actually said that no one who has not bought already would ever be able to according to some expert.. I think he was missing a few points on how markets work.. But hell.. I pointed out that a lot of indices were showing drops, a few rises.. and to be honest it is hard to see what is going on through figures.. Then I tried to counter with and Merving King Said... and none of them knew who Mervin King was.. This explains the market. People are dumb, thank god with the stagnation we are seeing the dumb ones run out.. Merv's broken market is evident as no one is really moving up it.. I do wonder if he is right and if prices actually dropped in 1997.. What concerns me is the number buying at peak and just of peak this time.. many more will be hurt... and even if they survive the crash.. they can't pay of capital at all.. still can't Bless them, the herd instinct, the last man standing... etc.. How do these people explain to themselves sustainable 300% inflation in 7 years..?? how is it in their heads...?? I think its very simple - the majority of FTBs (especially now) simply dont understand what drives a market, how much interest rates can affect their payments and of course they have no idea who Merin King is ! The things they do understand are : 1) Housing market always go up because thats what the BBC and their parents tell them 2) The bank is letting me borrow all this money so it must be ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mags Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 The things they do understand are : 1) Housing market always go up because thats what the BBC and their parents tell them 2) The bank is letting me borrow all this money so it must be ok Anyone got a quick response for those who say that this generation (20s and 30s) has it easier than ever before when it comes to property? I've tried all the usual stuff but it just doesn't sink in with this particular person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
since the beginning Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 (edited) Anyone got a quick response for those who say that this generation (20s and 30s) has it easier than ever before when it comes to property? I've tried all the usual stuff but it just doesn't sink in with this particular person. Graph Print out show it to them then shove down throat. Punch them, grab them by the throat and explain about student loans, falling salaries, no inflation and rising taxes. Edited February 17, 2006 by since the beginning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 (edited) Anyone got a quick response for those who say that this generation (20s and 30s) has it easier than ever before when it comes to property? I've tried all the usual stuff but it just doesn't sink in with this particular person. Reasons; - they've never seen a economic cycle - too young - they believe their parents views on property - but we live in different economic environment now - they believe media VI's - they are not financially literate and this is the easiest way to absorb information Edited February 17, 2006 by dnd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mags Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Graph Print out show it to them then shove down throat. Punch them, grab them by the throat and explain about student loans, falling salaries, no inflation and rising taxes. That should do it! Is it possible to get it to fit to one page? Thanks STB Reasons; - they've never seen a economic cycle - too young - they believe their parents views on property - but we live in different economic environment now - they believe media VI's - they are not financially literate and this is the easiest way to absorb information They're in their 60s and think that you just have to go out there and 'make things happen'... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karhu Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 This is such a no brainer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LazyDay Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Anyone got a quick response for those who say that this generation (20s and 30s) has it easier than ever before when it comes to property? I've tried all the usual stuff but it just doesn't sink in with this particular person. Take a look at the graph: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=22135&hl= It takes average monthly morgage repayments vs. the costs of other goods in the economy. By foregoing your mortgage and by spending the money that would be your monthly repayments elsewhere you can buy 1.55 times more goods now than your fathers could in 1987. Thats easy and straightforward answer. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 One of the problems is the large numbr of people who have predicted house price crashes year after year, and these crashes never seem to eventuate. Having people on a website claiming that the crash is definitely underway and there's no way back, and then there are claims that property has increased in price over the last few months, simply discredits the doom-mongers. I still believe that there must be a crash at some time as prices are unsustainable. But it's not surprising that a large section of the population believes that house prices can only go up and that the doom-mongers are wrong because for years now the so-called "VIs" have on the whole been right and the doom-mongers wrong. Billy Shears My, that is the most idiotic post I've read for a while. O hang on, it's a troll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 I think its very simple - the majority of FTBs (especially now) simply dont understand what drives a market, how much interest rates can affect their payments and of course they have no idea who Merin King is ! The things they do understand are : 1) Housing market always go up because thats what the BBC and their parents tell them 2) The bank is letting me borrow all this money so it must be ok 3) property is a great investment and renting is just money down the toilet - because a silly cow who says hice instead of house and some bald headed chump who can't roll his R's say so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 I was told yesterday by someone who has an IO mortgage that I would never afford a home.. He seemed full of glea as he had heard something on the BBC radio.. He actually said that no one who has not bought already would ever be able to according to some expert.. Sounds like a real loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 Take a look at the graph: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=22135&hl= It takes average monthly morgage repayments vs. the costs of other goods in the economy. By foregoing your mortgage and by spending the money that would be your monthly repayments elsewhere you can buy 1.55 times more goods now than your fathers could in 1987. Thats easy and straightforward answer. Cheers Spot on, and proving that a crash will happen.. The average mortgage repayments? How many buy at peak, only they care. My, that is the most idiotic post I've read for a while. O hang on, it's a troll. A troll, perhaps just with a different outlook.. the media is to blame for claiming that a crash is overnight.. its not.. it takes years.. Hell the first two didn't even dip the prices, granted they drove rapid and massive wage psuh inflation that crippled the economy and created a recession.. but the house prices didn't dip and people could afford again.. What is a house worth? What the buyer pays. What can the buyer pay? What he can afford So does an asset always have to be affordable to have a value? of course. Has the housing market always become affordable everytime before? yes Patience.. But do not rely on inflation.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity's Rainbow Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 One of the problems is the large numbr of people who have predicted house price crashes year after year, and these crashes never seem to eventuate. Having people on a website claiming that the crash is definitely underway and there's no way back, and then there are claims that property has increased in price over the last few months, simply discredits the doom-mongers. Quite right. As one poster once wrote about the Irish Property Market, "the top has been called so often now that nobody believes it will ever crash". Compare that comment with this quote from a great Larry Elliot piece on this year's World Economic Forum in Davos: http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1697724,00.html Larry Summers, a former US treasury secretary, injected a note of caution on Saturday. If you've been waiting for a bus for a long time, he said, and one hadn't arrived, there were two possible explanations. One was that the buses were not running; the other was that the buses would all arrive together. The period of maximum risk, said Summers, was not the moment of maximum alarm, but the time when the maximum alarm had passed. "That's when complacency sets in," he commented. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieDarker Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 I would have thought that not many people in the UK who have bought a house actualy understand what inflation is, let alone how it works. Its actually far scarier than that. A colleague at work is thinking about buying...he and his partner probably earn about £20k each, they have no savings, no investments, nothing. It seems a great deal of the UK population seems to somehow think buying a house in an 'investment' or like a savings account from a bank rather than a huge debt that should be offset with other monies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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