House prices see biggest monthly rise for 20 years

[Guillotine]

8 minutes ago, Dweller said:

Is this  on the absolutely crap properties that there weren't bidding wars on? 

Haha.  I would not like to guess how that figure was calculated. 

Personally I felt asking prices were typically knocked back to95% of asking.  

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

8 hours ago, rollover said:

The average price tag on a home has rocketed by nearly £8,000 in the space of a month.

The £7,785 jump this February is the biggest month-on-month increase in cash terms recorded by Rightmove in more than 20 years of its reporting.

Daily Mail

Anything that comes on to the market in our village is gone SSTC in 7 to 14 days. Suspect multiple bids as it’s invariably best and final offers. 

[Guillotine]

41 minutes ago, winkie said:

Don't believe that for a minute......watch this space.

👍🏻  You shouldn’t believe it either it’s an insane forecast and I should know better.

it’s started already but next you will see RM asking prices leaping ahead by more than 2.7% MOM in March and or April.  And if that price level is met, well, what is to stop sellers asking more and more as they come into the spring market? 

 I said elsewhere we could see 10% nominal  increases in certain indices in H1/2022 alone.

I just feel the competition within the demand is present certainly in London and the SE.  A round of significant wage increases will conclude shortly.

What happens in H2 will also be horrible, it always is for us lot.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Guillotine

[byron78]

1 hour ago, PeanutButter said:

Friends who've sold in Z3 can't buy in Berks, the place they offered 1.4 on was bought for cash by downsizers...

The London wealth ripple should take months and months to slow down. 

I think central London is now only really available for the international elite or anyone who inherited significant wealth in this country, if I'm honest.

I can't actually see it stopping unless it's regulated. Won't happen, will it?

 

 

[PeanutButter]

1 minute ago, byron78 said:

I think central London is now only really available for the international elite or anyone who inherited significant wealth in this country, if I'm honest.

I can't actually see it stopping unless it's regulated. Won't happen, will it?

Regulated, unlikely. Taxed, possibly? Foreign buyers should pay a premium to sit their freshly laundered money in our real estate. 

Absolutely no Tory voters would be lost if the govt upped the additional property rate on places over 3mil to 20%. 

1.5 in London is barely anything. 

Purchase price of property	Rate of Stamp Duty	Additional Property Rate*
£0 - £125,000	0%	3%
£125,001 - £250,000	2%	5%
£250,001 - £925,000	5%	8%
£925,001 - £1,500,000	10%	13%
Over £1.5 million	12%	15%

[PeanutButter]

Meanwhile in our competitor, NYC...https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-new-york-property-tax-benefits-rich/

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

3 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

You do wonder if this madness will ever end - maybe never.

What future for younger people in the UK - totally sc****d over during the pandemic and totally sc***d over during the ‘recovery’. And left with all the accumulated debt to repay via higher NI which of course their landlords don’t have to pay on their rent payments. If you can’t inherit or get a £100k deposit off mum and dad or granny what hope for you?

Still it seems to be a phenomenon across the western world - so not unique to the UK.

Certainly less hope for the young after you voted to remove their EU freedom of movement. Still I’m sure your feigned faux concern will cheer them. 🤡🌎

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

It ends when monetary tightening filters through to the real economy in a few years time.

The US and the UK will be in a stagflationary recession before the end of 2022. Way too much money chasing far too little domestic production.

The rest of the Covid cash flowed overseas to China powering their record export performance.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

1 hour ago, msi said:

No YoU DoNT UnDeRStaNd YoU wOkE LiBtArd ImMiGrAnT lOveR

 

 

</sarcasm>

 

 

 

 

PeSkY iMmIgRuNtS rAiSiNg OuR hOuSe PrIcEs. We NeEd AnOtHeR bReX_HiT tHIs TiMe It WiLl WoRk!1!1!1!!1

[Si1]

33 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The US and the UK will be in a stagflationary recession before the end of 2022. Way too much money chasing far too little domestic production.

The rest of the Covid cash flowed overseas to China powering their record export performance.

Quite. And if that happens then it will be compounded by the BoE's necessary response to inflation, as implied by your use of the word stagflation.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Si1

[wighty]

I have a house for sale. Similar going for £180k - £200k in 2019 before COVID. EA valued at £250k June 21. Waited as prices were still rocketing. Another valuation in November, £275k.

 EA told me to wait at least 3 months as he thought prices would continue to rise because Londoner's downsizing, WFH, second property.

South East Kent. Needs total refurb. Gardens and parking. Good London rail links.

[GenZ]

This situation is mental - I bought recently and the flat next door sold for twice the price.  thinking of selling this month and putting the cash in the bank. 

I could live in Thailand for the next 5 years and not work or be cold and still have a deposit for when the prices come down.

 

[henry the king]

33 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Quite. And if that happens then it will be compounded by the BoE's necessary response to inflation, as implied by your use of the word stagflation.

No indications of stagnation though, which is why the reluctance of the BOE to raise rates makes no sense. Just today the metrics came back showing very strong growth for the UK looking into the first half of 2022. 

The UK is a country which is primed to grow much more than its european competitors due to its strength in digital areas. Germany has a horribly out-dated economy now, kind of similar to how the UK was in the 60s and 70s. 

I think house prices and all asset prices are detached from the economy at this point. I see tightening monetary policy simply reducing the asset bubble but not doing much to economic growth. 

[Si1]

20 minutes ago, henry the king said:

No indications of stagnation though,

I think many feel we may be experiencing an energy price shock but I honestly don't know for sure what the rest of the year will bring.

[frederico]

In the case of house prices past performance does seem to be an indication of future performance. 

Lives are going to be over before any change occurs. Many have already been wasted.

[Si1]

1 minute ago, frederico said:

In the case of house prices past performance does seem to be an indication of future performance. 

Lives are going to be over before any change occurs. Many have already been wasted.

Well it's a 2nd order system so it tends to eat its own tail 

But yeah the timescales are maddening.

[bomberbrown]

Two words.  Bull trap. 

[henry the king]

42 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I think many feel we may be experiencing an energy price shock but I honestly don't know for sure what the rest of the year will bring.

I don't think consumer spending is enough to cause a recession. There will be a squeeze but people still have a lot of savings from furlough. Honestly don't see the economy doing anything other than growing well.

Which is why interest rates being still so low is mind-boggling to me. 

IMO the biggest impact on house and asset prices are QE and interest rates. So I expect HPI to slow and then stop by the end of the year. 

So to me it depends how quickly rates rise. Every other factor in house prices or asset prices is kind of meaningless by comparison.

[Si1]

3 minutes ago, henry the king said:

I don't think consumer spending is enough to cause a recession. 

The term 'demand side recession'

[Badhairday]

2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Regulated, unlikely. Taxed, possibly? Foreign buyers should pay a premium to sit their freshly laundered money in our real estate. 

Absolutely no Tory voters would be lost if the govt upped the additional property rate on places over 3mil to 20%. 

1.5 in London is barely anything. 

Purchase price of property	Rate of Stamp Duty	Additional Property Rate*
£0 - £125,000	0%	3%
£125,001 - £250,000	2%	5%
£250,001 - £925,000	5%	8%
£925,001 - £1,500,000	10%	13%
Over £1.5 million	12%	15%

From 1st April 2021, a 2% stamp duty surcharge was introduced for overseas buyers on the purchase of residential property in England and Northern Ireland.

[PeanutButter]

12 minutes ago, Badhairday said:

From 1st April 2021, a 2% stamp duty surcharge was introduced for overseas buyers on the purchase of residential property in England and Northern Ireland.

Alas, peanuts 😪

[dances with sheeple]

25 minutes ago, bomberbrown said:

Two words.  Bull trap. 

Where is that graph when you need it!

[henry the king]

21 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The term 'demand side recession'

I don't think consumer spending is going to be hit much I am saying. I see continued growth this year and this will further increase interest rates rises which will hit asset prices.

I think it is clear that asset prices and the real economy are detached at this point due to the monetary and fiscal stimulus.

[bomberbrown]

5 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Where is that graph when you need it!

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Quite. And if that happens then it will be compounded by the BoE's necessary response to inflation, as implied by your use of the word stagflation.

 

Yes. The twits at the Bank will keep trying to steer the economy towards growth using their only control instrument, the interest rate mechanism. But the observed dynamics are higher order, as you know, requiring at least two control parameters (also known as the First Law of Cybernetics). Expectations for continued growth in such circumstances should be low.