Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Realistbear

Bird Flu Only Factor That Can Derail Irish Economy

Recommended Posts

http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/02/16/story244978.html

Bird flu outbreak would devastate economy, say experts
16/02/2006 - 13:17:05
Officials from the National Disease Surveillance Centre have warned that an outbreak of bird flu could have devastating consequences for the Irish economy.
The virus has already been detected in dead migratory birds in several EU states
.
Speaking to the Oireachtas Health Committee today, Dr Darina O'Flanagan said an outbreak in Ireland would see 25% of the workforce taking between five to eight working days off over a three-month period.
"This will have an impact not just on the health services, but also right throughout the system, including the gardaí, the Army, essential services, food production, distribution and transport," she said.

My guess is that if the Bird Flu mutates and affects humans we might see a little more damage than 25% of the workforce calling in poorly. :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/02/16/story244978.html

Bird flu outbreak would devastate economy, say experts
16/02/2006 - 13:17:05
Officials from the National Disease Surveillance Centre have warned that an outbreak of bird flu could have devastating consequences for the Irish economy.
The virus has already been detected in dead migratory birds in several EU states
.
Speaking to the Oireachtas Health Committee today, Dr Darina O'Flanagan said an outbreak in Ireland would see 25% of the workforce taking between five to eight working days off over a three-month period.
"This will have an impact not just on the health services, but also right throughout the system, including the gardaí, the Army, essential services, food production, distribution and transport," she said.

My guess is that if the Bird Flu mutates and affects humans we might see a little more damage than 25% of the workforce calling in poorly. :(

Although you mention the important factor - bird flu mutation - it is annoying that the article does not.

If bird flu reaches Ireland lots of birds will die and farmers may be affected but the workforce will not be going off sick unless the virus mutates.

All agencies have been asked to assess how they would respond to a level of infection which would see 25% of the workforce either off-sick, grieving, caring for relatives etc. This is an estimated level of service disruption based on an estimated level of virulence, which as you rightly point out could turn out to be an under-estimate were the virus ever to mutate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes it is a shame that this article doesn't make it clear that bird flu has not yet mutated (and may never will) to allow it to pass from human to human.

If it doesn't mutate then as long as you are not Bernard Mathews you will probably be OK (but expect a shortage of beef next Christmas).

If it does mutate then we are all fooked anyway. Every economy will suffer and the price of houses will be the least of your worries.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes it is a shame that this article doesn't make it clear that bird flu has not yet mutated (and may never will) to allow it to pass from human to human.

If it doesn't mutate then as long as you are not Bernard Mathews you will probably be OK (but expect a shortage of beef next Christmas).

If it does mutate then we are all fooked anyway. Every economy will suffer and the price of houses will be the least of your worries.

A possible mutation has already occured in Europe:

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=161&id=229322006

Let us hope that they can contain the spread if the tests prove positive . :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You only need a small shock and our so called highly developed financial systems will crash like a pack of cards.

On the micro scale how may be can live more then a few weeks without wages to meet all that debt and on a bigger scale our world leaders will struggle to meet payments on debt.

Bird flu is now endemic within the earths wild population of birds and it, or we will wipe a lot of them out and the economic disaster created will wipe a lot of us out.

Strange GW-Bush has shares in the company producing Tamiflu don’t you think

exclusion zone

The emergency plan was announced following confirmation that bird flu has been found in wild swans in Germany, Austria and Denmark.

The exclusion zones, similar to those which operated during the foot-and-mouth crisis five years ago, are designed to protect humans and stop poultry from becoming infected by wild birds.

Yes I remember 5 years ago with all that mad cow disease around and having to duck all them flying cows passing overhead.

As always government is only concerned with keeping the taxes coming in and they take silly steps to convince us all that they are on the case.

I have my 6 months of tined food put by just in case, have you !

Edited by Justice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bart of Darkness
Bird Flu Only Factor That Can Derail Irish Economy

Running out of "free money" might do it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Speaking to the Oireachtas Health Committee today, Dr Darina O'Flanagan said an outbreak in Ireland would see 25% of the workforce taking between five to eight working days off over a three-month period.

Assuming the virus does mutate, how the hell does she come up with these figures?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A possible mutation has already occured in Europe:

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=161&id=229322006

Let us hope that they can contain the spread if the tests prove positive .

This is just the current strain of bird flu that has been transmitted from bird to human. This isn't a major risk to us apart from the poultry industry. Its if the virus mutates and can be spread from human to human (and hence like wildfire) while keeping its current level of virulence that is the real risk. When you hear it has mutated in this way, that will be the time to get worried.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A possible mutation has already occured in Europe:

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=161&id=229322006

Let us hope that they can contain the spread if the tests prove positive . :o

The article you posted is not a "possible mutation". It is simply another possible case of a human contracting the avian version of the virus FROM A BIRD, as has happened in a few dozen cases around the world out of the hundreds of millions of people who have daily contact with birds.

Jesus, the panic the media has created around this story seems ridiculous.

frugalista

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

BRUSSELS (AFX) -
Europe has gone onto "high alert" against the threat of bird flu
as the virus spreads further into the continent, officials said, as they mulled setting up "buffer zones" to contain the disease.
As poultry sales plummeted around the European Union -- the world's third biggest exporter after the US and Brazil -- the EU veterinary experts were ready to approve the broad "risk areas" to calm consumers.

So far in Europe, the presence of H5N1 virus -- which in its highly pathogenic form can be fatal to humans -- has been confirmed in Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Austria, Italy, Germany and the European part of Russia.

Don't panic Mr. Mainwaring, don't panic........ :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bird Flu? :blink:

What about an absurd reliance on transfer pricing and foreign direct investment. I cant get my hands on the figures but the percentage of Irish exports made up by transfer pricing American multinationals is staggering. FDI in Ireland has dried up as the US Senate starts to seek methods of repatriating some of the lost tax dollars to plug the current account deficit and MNC’s seek the greener pastures of low cost economies.

Indigenous industry in Ireland is a makeweight bubble prone fabrication of building materials and Chinese goods retail outlets, manufacturing employment has plummeted, and venture capital expenditure is beyond pitiable.

Add unsustainable debt growth running at three time the level in the UK, falling competitiveness an inefficient public sector and infrastructure that lags behind even Eastern Europe and these fools can only think that bird flu can impact the Irish economy.

That folks is a prime example of a human (and very Irish) trait; complacency :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

BRUSSELS (AFX) -
Europe has gone onto "high alert" against the threat of bird flu
as the virus spreads further into the continent, officials said, as they mulled setting up "buffer zones" to contain the disease.
As poultry sales plummeted around the European Union -- the world's third biggest exporter after the US and Brazil -- the EU veterinary experts were ready to approve the broad "risk areas" to calm consumers.

So far in Europe, the presence of H5N1 virus -- which in its highly pathogenic form can be fatal to humans -- has been confirmed in Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Austria, Italy, Germany and the European part of Russia.

Don't panic Mr. Mainwaring, don't panic........ :o

What is the point of tracking the geographical spread of the disease before it has mutated? The threat of bird flu is not that the unmutated version might end up in the UK, but that it will mutate somewhere else in the world then come to us via a human vector.

If European governments want to counter the threat, the most important thing they can do is help those countries where there is a lot of human-bird contact, (e.g. east Asia, Africa etc.) do a massive, possibly permanent cull of their domestic poultry. This would actually lower the threat of mutation. It would be a lot more useful than spending resources trying to prevent the unmutated version getting to countries where there is little human-bird contact anyway.

frugalista

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is the point of tracking the geographical spread of the disease before it has mutated?

frugalista

I imagine poultry farmers will be fairly interested in the spread of this disease.

The whole point of originally tracking the geographical spread of the disease was to locate it and contain it before it had a chance to mutate - I had a feeling that this strategy wouldn't work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jesus, the panic the media has created around this story seems ridiculous.

frugalista

I know, frugalista - it has been a bit "The Day Today" in terms of bird flu. That is in its current form however. If HN51 mutates and will transmit from human to human, and most importantly keeps its level of transmissible infection and its level of virulence then the media haven't been creating panic, in fact they have probably underplayed it. Depending on the time from infection to displaying symptoms, with modern air and transport links, HN51 has the potential to be the biggest disaster in history.

Most scientists agree that mutation is almost certain eventually, it just depends on how it mutates and if it has the same level of virulence when it does. This is generally the opinion of the World Health Organisation, and to be fair, these guys know what they are talking about and don't tend to scaremonger.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I imagine poultry farmers will be fairly interested in the spread of this disease.

The whole point of originally tracking the geographical spread of the disease was to locate it and contain it before it had a chance to mutate - I had a feeling that this strategy wouldn't work.

As I understand it, each time a human comes into close contact with an infected bird, they have a chance of contracting the unmutated version. The unmutated version is then in their system. It cannot spread to another human, but it might kill the person whom it has infected.

There is also a (very small) chance, that while in the system of the human, the avian flu virus could mutate (or even combine with an existing human flu virus) produce a new virus which was both (1) virulent and (2) transmissible between humans.

The vast majority of close contact between humans and birds is amongst rural 3rd world peasants who keep chickens, ducks and turkeys running around their houses.

The best way to prevent the threat of a human pandemic is to

(1) prevent the avian version from infecting poultry.

(2) prevent infected poultry infecting humans.

It's true that wild bird migration is increasing the chances of poultry becoming infected. But I don't think there is much you can do about wild bird migration. How can this possibly be stopped? Eventually the unmutated version will be in wild bird populations all around the world, probably within the next 5 years.

The most important thing to do at this stage is to kill off all the current poultry in the third world, just like the cull of cows during the foot and mouth crisis. If this is not possible immediately, then in the meantime peasants need to be educated to (1) minimize contact between poultry and wild birds and (2) minimize human to bird contact.

This will require a massive amount of organization, education and food aid. If western governments don't help out third world countries with this then they are very stupid.

frugalista

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Germany is now issuing warnings:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/16022006/325/germ...-flu-cases.html

We are dealing with a dangerous animal disease which also has potential danger to humans," he said. The
risk of the disease being spread by migrating birds must be regarded as considerably higher than previously
, he said. Outbreaks of bird flu have now been recorded along the main migration routes.
German television on Wednesday showed pictures of large numbers of dead swans lying all day on beaches near to the first cases with no signs of action by authorities to collect and examine them.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state Environment and Farm Minister Till Backhaus admitted problems but said under Germany's federal system local district councils had responsibility to collect and test dead birds and state authorities had no power to act.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/16022006/140/germ...dly-strain.html

Germany has become the latest country to confirm cases of the potentially deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu
. Tests showed two swans found dead in the north of the country earlier this week had the virus. The news has further highlighted the continuing spread of bird flu across western Europe.

And we all thought HPI was a serious problem? :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In a few months you will have dead swans in Britain too. So what? Unless you like playing with bird carcasses or you spend your weekends cavorting with free range chickens you are safe.

I would be far more interested to learn about whether Vietnam, China etc. are progressing in their attempts to cull domestic poultry than whether the unmutated H5N1 has reached Germany or not. Why isn't the media leading with that story? Oh yes I forgot, it doesn't sound as scary.

frugalista

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Egypt now:

http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Egypt-test...s_14229853.html

CAIRO (AFX) - Officials in Egypt's southern governorate of Qena began
testing chickens for avian flu after the mysterious deaths of some 130 of them
in one village.
The death of the birds at a number of homes in Ezzab al-Masri prompted
residents to alert officials, fearing the outbreak of a disease.

Britain?

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/16022006/344/uk-f...d-flu-risk.html

Britain is increasingly likely to be hit by bird flu, the Government has warned.
Animal health minister Ben Bradshaw said confirmation that the disease had spread to more EU countries meant it was now more likely to reach British shores

.

It is now mutating according to scientists:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/16022006/325/bird...urn-report.html

For now, the H5N1 avian flu virus remains hard for humans to catch,
but scientists say it is steadily mutating, just like all influenza A viruses do, and could acquire the ability to pass easily among people
.
The H5N1 virus is known to have killed 91 people since 2003 when it resurfaced in Asia and has since spread to birds in Europe and in Nigeria. The majority of deaths have been in East Asia.
"A massive global economic slowdown occurs in the 'ultra' scenario with over 142.2 million people killed and some economies, particularly in the developing world, shrinking by over 50 percent in 2006," said the report released on Thursday on the institute's Web site
http://www.lowyinstitute.org' rel="external nofollow">
.
China, India and Indonesia would suffer the biggest national death tolls under both "mild" and "ultra" pandemics, although less developed countries collectively would have the largest number, ranging from 330,000 to 33 million dead.
Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In a few months you will have dead swans in Britain too. So what? Unless you like playing with bird carcasses or you spend your weekends cavorting with free range chickens you are safe.

I would be far more interested to learn about whether Vietnam, China etc. are progressing in their attempts to cull domestic poultry than whether the unmutated H5N1 has reached Germany or not. Why isn't the media leading with that story? Oh yes I forgot, it doesn't sound as scary.

frugalista

I live on the edge of a wetland for migratory birds and regularly have hundreds of swans and geese about 100' from my back door and flying over the house at low level!

:o

Edited by Mrliberty

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I live on the edge of a wetland for migratory birds and regularly have hundreds of swans and geese about 100' from my back door and flying over the house at low level!

:o

Well, if one of them plummets out of the sky, then jumps up and sneezes on you, be worried!

frugalista

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.