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Are We Deluding Ourselves?

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Do we all live in a dream?

Just overheard a conversation in the sandwich shop. (Maybe not word for word)

Owner: Hows business then?

Builder: Busy as ever, seems to be getting busier. All the developers say they can't keep up

Owner: Really? You're working round the corner at the moment aren't you?

Builder: Yeah, haven't finished yet and they've all been snapped up

Owner: No parking there is there?

Builder: No, and they're tiny as well.

A search on rightmove suggests that phase 2 is now on offer, so maybe he meant phase 1 has been snapped up. Looks like the prices range from 199,995 for a one bed apartment up to about 299,995 for two beds.

So, if the builder is telling the truth, are we all just wrong?

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Do we all live in a dream?

Just overheard a conversation in the sandwich shop. (Maybe not word for word)

Owner: Hows business then?

Builder: Busy as ever, seems to be getting busier. All the developers say they can't keep up

Owner: Really? You're working round the corner at the moment aren't you?

Builder: Yeah, haven't finished yet and they've all been snapped up

Owner: No parking there is there?

Builder: No, and they're tiny as well.

A search on rightmove suggests that phase 2 is now on offer, so maybe he meant phase 1 has been snapped up. Looks like the prices range from 199,995 for a one bed apartment up to about 299,995 for two beds.

So, if the builder is telling the truth, are we all just wrong?

Where?

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"A search on rightmove suggests that phase 2 is now on offer, so maybe he meant phase 1 has been snapped up. Looks like the prices range from 199,995 for a one bed apartment up to about 299,995 for two beds."

Dream....sounds like a nightmare paying that amount for so little even your builder seemed a bit miffed!

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A search on rightmove suggests that phase 2 is now on offer, so maybe he meant phase 1 has been snapped up. Looks like the prices range from 199,995 for a one bed apartment up to about 299,995 for two beds.

Just because these are the advertised prices does not mean that they sold at these prices.

One of the problems with newbuilds are all the schemes used to drop the price without recording this in the published land registry figures.

You also need to remember as other threads have pointed out that many people continue to overstretch themselves and buy because they do not hear anything other than the constant mantra 'house prices only ever go up'.

Just because someone buys a property it does not mean the house price crash is cancelled.

First you need to look at whether they bought the place cheaper than similat properties were bought for in 2004 and 2005.

Second you need to remember that just because one person lies to buy it doesn't mean the economy has changed nor does it mean that everyone else can and will lie to buy.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter if everyone you know is buying, if the economy takes a tumble and people start to lose their jobs, stretching yourself to take on a huge debt (mortgage) is not going to end up looking like the best idea.

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Possilbly, yes but people will buy all the way up & all the way down, & any downturn will never happen uniformly. There is always delusion and risk in any housing market to some extent..

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Would you trust a builder?

Um, yes. I would if I wanted him to build something for me. Would I decide what to invest in based on an overheard conversation n a sandwich shop/this web-site: No, though they would influence it.

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Do we all live in a dream?

So, if the builder is telling the truth, are we all just wrong?

The point for me is not to set your life in stone. Sometimes Im bearish, other times bullish as a result of the swings in the economy.

Currently Im pretty bullish. As a business owner I can tell you its very very busy and confidence is high.

LLs I know are adding stock like its going out of fashion.

NOTE - a lot of new build, even that originally intended for private sale is being hoovered up by housing associations and key worker schemes.

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The only deluded people are the bears on here.

Business is doing really well, lots of new start ups, lots of cash washing about, EAs really busy and a shortage of property for sale above £300k.

I know lots of people who are buying, lots trading up - there is no sentiment at all for a crash or even a thought of one on the horizon.

If you are priced out, its just tough I'm afraid - you are going to be priced out for a long time to come. Get used to it and get on with renting. If you don't like the idea of big debts, then don't buy. It's simple really.

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I think as long as interest rates stay low, there won't be a crash.

I have colleagues who are continuing to buy (even though the houses look pitfully poor value for money in my opinion). It's as if people have become detached from the actual cost of the houses. I truly believe people don't think - ok, how long will it take me to pay that back - they just think - fine, we can get 4x our joint salary, what will that buy us.

Edited by izzy

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I think as long as interest rates stay low, there won't be a crash.

I have colleagues who are continuing to buy (even though the houses look pitfully poor value for money in my opinion). It's as if people have become detached from the actual cost of the houses. I truly believe people don't think - ok, how long will it take me to pay that back - they just think - fine, we can get 4x our joint salary, what will that buy us.

Becoming detached from value is precisely the reason Buffet does not buy. You have to take into account that the market has been relativeley stagnant now for 15 months. The miniscule rises that the VIs say are happening are just that--miniscule. Gone are the double digit figures of yore. The market is not as dumb as the sheeple that comprise it. When it gets overvalued it does what it is doing now--it stops moving up. What will determine if it will crash or not is if the investors decide returns are better elsewhere. With the prospects of a 2% rise in HPI this year my guess is that the returns will be better elsewhere. Hence my bearishness for a crash.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest Winners and Losers

It's all the investors racing to get their developments and renovations finished so that can put their properties on the market before it crashes (sorry, corrects).

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Taunton, Somerset.

I know for a fact this market is dead as me and the misses have had our eye on it for about a year and there's still places we bookmarked in the summer - most 3 bed houses 130-160 - still for sale.

No one's going to buy two beds for 299k. Do a rightmove search and see what you can get for 299k.

Add to that the fact that if you're not a teacher, solicitor, or senior HGV mechanic, you'll be lucky to find much to do in Taunton for more than 20k.

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Guest Guy_Montag

I think as long as interest rates stay low, there won't be a crash.

I have colleagues who are continuing to buy (even though the houses look pitfully poor value for money in my opinion). It's as if people have become detached from the actual cost of the houses. I truly believe people don't think - ok, how long will it take me to pay that back - they just think - fine, we can get 4x our joint salary, what will that buy us.

People are detached from what they spend. I think it partly stems from using plastic all the time. I'm pretty ******** about money, but when I want to buy something & don't want to think that I am overspending I stick it on a card.

There's nothing like handing over a big wodge of fivers to make you think - ****** that's a lot of money.

Mortgages are just an extension of plastic.

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The only deluded people are the bulls on here.

Business is collapsing fast, no new start ups, no cash washing about, EAs going bust and a massive surplus of property for sale at all levels.

I know lots of people who are desperate to sell, lots trying forelornly to trade down - the sentiment for a crash is now looming large, and even the mainstream press have cottoned on that the jig's up.

If you are priced out right now, or simply want some kind of 'value for money', sit tight - you are going to be able to buy a LOT more house for LESS money real soon. Get on with renting which right now can be translaated as 'let some nobend landlord subsidize your living costs'. If you don't like the idea of poor value, then don't buy. It's simple really. It always corrects, and that's exactly what it's doing now, despite the desperate (and frankly hilarious) spin.

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-109...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

Got to be a laugh. Although perhaps reading between the lines this is some sort of upper-class gated play-pen and not really part of the local market proper?

LOL the equivalent of AUD$750,000 for a 2 bed flat in TAUNTON ferchrissake!!

As much as I dislike the United States of Australia, you can buy a freakin palace for that here.

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsear...u=&fmt=&header=

Edited by wayneL

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I grew up in Wellington, Somerset. Family still lives there.

Dad is a builder. In the last year, he's gone from being so busy he turns jobs down to having nothing on since before christmas.

Prices make me laugh in that area...

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While in no way justifying the huge price tag South Road from memory (I went out with a lovely young lady who lived there back in the early 80's) was one of the better semi-rural roads out of Taunton, all detached homes in big gardens.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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