Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[Gurgle]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There is no external threat to Russia.

It is however a dying state, already it cannot generate enough money to maintain even its current poor infrastructure and demographics mean this problem is going to get much worse.  Sooner or later, probably much sooner thanks to the fallout from Putin's ridiculous war, the regions will rebel against the incompetent and corrupt rule of Moscow. 

Agreed.  However, in their mind there is a threat, mostly because it allows them to distract the population from the true state of the country.  I can't remember where I read it but there was a recent article highlighting that there is now a significantly heightened risk of civil war in Russia.

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, rollover said:

Corrected for you.

Yes because 0.02% of our Gdp will break us.

Meanwhile it's cost Nazi Russia 10% of its gdp.

[Peter Hun]

3 hours ago, shlomo said:

Both NATO and Russia will soon be out of weapons

Russia was putting 200 tanks per year back into service, before its only tank builder went bankrupt recently.

US was building 2500 javalins per year and will ramp it up to 10,000 which was the production peak in the past.

NLAW will ramp up too, plus others.

 

Who is going to run out first?

[Huggy]

3 hours ago, rollover said:

Ukrainian MP pushes back against Boris Johnson’s ‘finest hour’ remark

Echoing the words of Winston Churchill virtually at the Verkhovna Rada, Johnson described Ukraine’s resistance as: “finest hour, that will be remembered and recounted for generations to come”.

Inna Sovsun told the PA news agency that while the speech gave them “hope” she contested Johnson’s description: I don’t know if the definition of ‘finest’ is supposed to be something nice and beautiful - certainly it doesn’t feel like that.

Guardian

I was welling up watching Boris give his speech of champions. That the Guadrani feels it necessary to try and pare such excellence back fills me with even greater confidence that good will prevail against the demented evil of Vlad's (effectively) Commie scum.

The anidrauG will never be a friend of Britain.

[satsuma]

5 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Russia was putting 200 tanks per year back into service, before its only tank builder went bankrupt recently.

US was building 2500 javalins per year and will ramp it up to 10,000 which was the production peak in the past.

NLAW will ramp up too, plus others.

 

Who is going to run out first?

Russia is number 12 in world GDP and is really a basket case economy, reality is its actually much lower.  The US and UK are number 1 and 5 in GDP and both are pumping weapons to Ukraine, several other high ranking countries are helping too.  So the clear answer is Russia will run out of weapons first.  Their only ally, China, is not helping, probably due to shame.  

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

This is a strange one:

 

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore

[shlomo]

20 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Russia was putting 200 tanks per year back into service, before its only tank builder went bankrupt recently.

US was building 2500 javalins per year and will ramp it up to 10,000 which was the production peak in the past.

NLAW will ramp up too, plus others.

 

Who is going to run out first?

The West and Russia are going to be scouring the third world to buy Tanks and other equipment, the second hand price of this kit must be going up by crazy amounts.

[Confusion of VIs]

34 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Russia was putting 200 tanks per year back into service, before its only tank builder went bankrupt recently.

US was building 2500 javalins per year and will ramp it up to 10,000 which was the production peak in the past.

NLAW will ramp up too, plus others.

 

Who is going to run out first?

Also currently planned production runs of the newest drones/missiles are being brought forward and expanded to supply the Ukraine.

They are even getting some of the most modern equipment ahead of the US army, I cannot see the Russian junk coping very well with that.     

[satsuma]

24 minutes ago, shlomo said:

The West and Russia are going to be scouring the third world to buy Tanks and other equipment, the second hand price of this kit must be going up by crazy amounts.

The west can churn out tanks by the score, Russia not so much.  The west has not even broken a sweat yet, meanwhile Russia is squealing like a pig.  

[Confusion of VIs]

29 minutes ago, shlomo said:

The West and Russia are going to be scouring the third world to buy Tanks and other equipment, the second hand price of this kit must be going up by crazy amounts.

The West will be using equipment due to be replaced or already in reserve held by NATO members.

The expensive stuff will be the brand new kit being given to the Ukrainians, however much of the cost of this will be recovered from the $300 of frozen Russian currency reserves plus assets seized from both the Russian state and the oligarchs linked with it.

Edited May 3, 2022 by Confusion of VIs

[Blobsy]

1 hour ago, Gurgle said:

Agreed.  However, in their mind there is a threat, mostly because it allows them to distract the population from the true state of the country.  I can't remember where I read it but there was a recent article highlighting that there is now a significantly heightened risk of civil war in Russia.

I think this is likely. Although, in a country full of nukes, not great for the rest of us.

[satsuma]

17 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The West will be using equipment due to be replaced or already in reserve held by NATO members.

The expensive stuff will be the brand new kit being given to the Ukrainians, however much of the cost of this will be recovered from the $300 of frozen Russian currency reserves plus assets seized from both the Russian state and the oligarchs linked with it.

Its a mix, Germany is being very miserly and sending older equipment that is more like surplus.  UK and US has stepped up with proper modern gear, Javelin and NLAW etc.  Sure, some of the cost will be recovered but the ultimate saving is to stop PooTin and his maniac robber band.  

[Orb]

3 hours ago, rollover said:

Eggs farmers are SIX MONTHS from bankruptcy due rising cost of chicken feed caused by Ukraine war

Egg farmers are now six months from bankruptcy due to the rising cost of chicken feed caused by the conflict in Ukraine and supermarkets cutting prices amid the cost of living crisis, industry chiefs have warned.

Farmers are now facing new bankruptcy fears within six months as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent the cost of feeding hens soaring to £400 a tonne - with grain grown in the region also now 50 per cent more expensive.

Farmers have since been left with unsustainable losses after supermarkets placed an average price cut of 13 per cent on coffee, bread, sausages and eggs to combat the cost of living crisis.

Daily Mail

That's eggceeded all eggspectations. We could always turn to French chicken farmers, but they're affeggted also, and have had un œuf. 

[Blobsy]

11 minutes ago, Orb said:

That's eggceeded all eggspectations. We could always turn to French chicken farmers, but they're affeggted also, and have had un œuf. 

Tell me you’re yolking.

[Orb]

7 minutes ago, Dogsy said:

Tell me you’re yolking.

I'm afried I'm not. 

[Big Orange]

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There is no external threat to Russia.

It is however a dying state, already it cannot generate enough money to maintain even its current poor infrastructure and demographics mean this problem is going to get much worse.  Sooner or later, probably much sooner thanks to the fallout from Putin's ridiculous war, the regions will rebel against the incompetent and corrupt rule of Moscow. 

Is it a good idea to push the Russia Federation (last incarnaton of the Russian Empire) into a fragmented condition similar to today's Libya or former Yugoslavia only it's a much, much larger polity and they got nukes?

It's a hard choice considering the ridiculous tactics they're carrying out to maintain their borders and power (which is blowing up in their faces with Ukraine getting stronger and stronger, while Russia is internally getting weaker and weaker, all through Putin's actions).

Edited May 4, 2022 by Big Orange

[satsuma]

6 hours ago, Big Orange said:

Is it a good idea to push the Russia Federation (last incarnaton of the Russian Empire) into a fragmented condition similar to today's Libya or former Yugoslavia only it's a much, much larger polity and they got nukes?

It's a hard choice considering the ridiculous tactics they're carrying out to maintain their borders and power (which is blowing up in their faces with Ukraine getting stronger and stronger, while Russia is internally getting weaker and weaker, all through Putin's actions).

I think there is no good choice, only the right choice, good or evil.  The evil of PooTin must be stopped, otherwise we end with another Nazi in Europe.

[IMHAL]

15 minutes ago, satsuma said:

I think there is no good choice, only the right choice, good or evil.  The evil of PooTin must be stopped, otherwise we end with another Nazi in Europe.

I think that is the right assessment. I was watching a debate on the France24 news channel (very good coverage of Ukraine BTW) and the conclusion was that an unchained Putin would be worse than a cornered Putin. He would walk over anyone that shows weakness, so there is no option now but to stop him and stop him now. 

[rollover]

Ukraine ambassador urges Priti Patel to relax UK visa scheme

London diplomat calls for temporary lifting of ‘unnecessary, long, bureaucratic’ refugee process.

Vadym Prystaiko said he was negotiating with Priti Patel to temporarily lift visa requirements that he said had left many Ukrainians waiting in European towns such as Calais.

He said: “Now it’s time maybe for a temporary [relaxation of visa requirements] just to relieve people from this unnecessary, long, bureaucratic and difficult bureaucratic procedures.

Guardian

[henry the king]

2 hours ago, IMHAL said:

I think that is the right assessment. I was watching a debate on the France24 news channel (very good coverage of Ukraine BTW) and the conclusion was that an unchained Putin would be worse than a cornered Putin. He would walk over anyone that shows weakness, so there is no option now but to stop him and stop him now. 

Russian will win this war anyway. They will take the east of Ukraine. The west will object briefly but soon Germany will be back for Russian Oil and Gas and it will be forgotten. Their greed knows no bounds. Defence spending will fall back and Putin will have won a huge victory taking a significant land mass with a ton of resources. His next target will be the rest of Ukraine, probably diplomatically, then he will take Moldova.

After that he will agitate against the baltic nations. Lots of ethnic Russians there. We aren't going to fight a nuclear war with Russia over Estonia. He knows that. They will be next.

Edited May 4, 2022 by henry the king

[IMHAL]

43 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Russian will win this war anyway. They will take the east of Ukraine. The west will object briefly but soon Germany will be back for Russian Oil and Gas and it will be forgotten. Their greed knows no bounds. Defence spending will fall back and Putin will have won a huge victory taking a significant land mass with a ton of resources. His next target will be the rest of Ukraine, probably diplomatically, then he will take Moldova.

Can't make out if you are living in a fantasy world or you have special tea leaves.

There are no winners to this war. Putin may end up taking the East but neither he nor we will be winners. Russia will get weakened both militarilly and economically, they will be spent by the time this is over and will have nor the resources or the will to reach further. Russia may even have internal discent to deal with. Russia has made a mistake and badly miscalculated Ukraine and the ROW opposition. This is an existential threat to the West and it will be treated that way.

43 minutes ago, henry the king said:

After that he will agitate against the baltic nations. Lots of ethnic Russians there. We aren't going to fight a nuclear war with Russia over Estonia. He knows that. They will be next.

See above. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by IMHAL

[satsuma]

3 hours ago, IMHAL said:

I think that is the right assessment. I was watching a debate on the France24 news channel (very good coverage of Ukraine BTW) and the conclusion was that an unchained Putin would be worse than a cornered Putin. He would walk over anyone that shows weakness, so there is no option now but to stop him and stop him now. 

I am hoping his own side take him out.  Reality is he is propped up by the Oligarchs, I wonder how many are suffering under the sanctions.  Maybe they would like to return to the good old days of lounging about the capitals of Europe.  

[IMHAL]

8 minutes ago, satsuma said:

I am hoping his own side take him out.  Reality is he is propped up by the Oligarchs, I wonder how many are suffering under the sanctions.  Maybe they would like to return to the good old days of lounging about the capitals of Europe.  

The oligarchs are Putin's servants and no more. Kordasovsky proved that. I think it will take some brave souls to take Putin out, very high risk. 

[thecrashingisles]

Just now, IMHAL said:

The oligarchs are Putin's servants and no more. Kordasovsky proved that. I think it will take some brave souls to take Putin out, very high risk. 

They're also as susceptible to war fever as anyone else so no-one should assume that people who like the high life are automatically pro-Western.

[IMHAL]

12 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

They're also as susceptible to war fever as anyone else so no-one should assume that people who like the high life are automatically pro-Western.

It was not an argument against sanction them, that is still important because Putin can and does take their foreign stored money at will. It was an argument to say that oligarchs have limited political sway over Putin.

Edited May 4, 2022 by IMHAL