Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[Staffsknot]

39 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

I appreciate your opinion.

111 BTG's now in Ukraine.

Non-biased assessment I hope-

https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2022-03-10/russian-attack-ukraine-day-14

According to a Ukranian source,  31 have lost combat effectiveness.

OK apologies if I seem at bit harsh but the last few days have been quite a few numpties screaming about if you don't accept their version of events you are a Putin stooge or that the Russian army is dead & buried.

The 48hrs I mentioned ended with that convoy starting to move to encirclement positions.

Didn't see in the article 111 BTGs but a BTG is a non-fixed military battlefield formation that nicks elements from other administrative formations. We do the same with a battlegroup marrying elements from tankies, armoured inf, engineers, etc...

A BTG is different in that the artillery assets are built in. But to get more BTGs you can just peel off 2 inf companies and a tank coy and add in support assets and voila new BTG. It exists for a temporary timespan then can fold back in or join another BTG or even remain independent with more support or stuff removed.

Also VDV is independent and run its own BTGs.

Russia claims 170 of them, but probably about 150 inc doing the minimum 2 inf coy to a tank coy.

If 31 are claimed by Ukraine to be combat ineffective I take with pinch of salt but how that can happen:

- critical losses across the board

- loss of tank coy or critical losses ( its just armoured inf)

- losses of inf or inf vehicles critical ( the tanks cannot advance without inf support / inf without vehicles cannot keep pace with advancing tanks)

- loss of key support assets necessary

- mechanical losses or stores

- ammunition or fuel below critical threshold ( cannot manouvre or hold position)

- loss of C&C ( basically all the people capable of stepping up are casualties and you are left with junior NCOs & improv command structure ).

This list is not exhaustive but hopefully covers off most of it.

[Roman Roady]

 

[Staffsknot]

1 hour ago, Lucky Larry said:

I'm not doubting them but you are quoting a single incident to try and prove all incidents or claims are untrue. The first casualty in war is the truth and if you believe only one side is lying and one is telling the truth you have blinkers on . Did you believe the young Kuwaiti nurse who said the soldiers came into the hospital and stole the incubators and left the babies to die? History is littered with mistruths and outright lies in order to justify wars and atrocities . It took 50 years before the truth about Bloody Sunday came out 

I cited two incidents from a detailed Amnesty report on the conflict that had compiled their view of non-systematic and only isolated incidents up until the outbreak of the current conflict.

To ignore that and come up with 'only looked at two incidents' is your error.

I only chose to cite specifically those as the incident was cited as Russia's evidence of genocide and reason for said conflict.

The report could not find evidence of state groups just paramilitaries. So to use a blunt analogy if your Neighbourhood Watch lynched somebody should the chief of police who was in Benidorm go to jail? The answer is no as they are NSAGs.

If, as we found in Afghanistan, an atrocity is perpetrated by a Chechen national who is there can we invade Russia? Nope is hopefully your answer.

NSAGs are Non-State Actors by definition and why I'm dead against civilian combatants.

[Riedquat]

1 hour ago, Lucky Larry said:

And nowhere have I suggested that they should but the suggestion that Ukraine has also behaved badly has the panty wetters out in force 

Because you say it in such a way as to imply there's some sort of equivalence. Russia's behaviour is completely off the chart compared to what Ukraine's done. Trying to hint at there being some sort of equivalence is a common tactic by people supporting ar*seholes.

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, Roman Roady said:

 

Yeah. I can relate to that.

He's just tickled the visible edges of the problem tho. Putin has been softening-up and dividing the populations of westerm nations for years. His support of authoritarian governments of both left and right is a deliberate strategy. He divides by using extreem views, in many cases it does not matter much which view wins out so long as it is at an extreem as this keeps the people divided and mistrustful. Bolsanaro, Duertes, Trump...even Farage. These people and there thirst for power plays well into the hands of Putin. It's no accident that these people love Putin. They are wannabe clones or useful fools, does not matter which.

It does not stop there, Brexit, Covid, climate change etc...they are all grist to the mill for propagating extreem views and dividing people, and there are no shortage of paid trolls to help the process along. All necessary if you have a plan and want to soften up the enemy. There is no easier enemy to defeat than one that is divided. You see it here when people use the war in Ukraine to have a pop at Germany, or Covid and lockdown. Or (hands-up) even me to make the point that Brexit was supported by Putin for obvious reasons (flat out denied by leavers or considered not significant). All that division created contributes to the down-side for us and the up-side for him. We lose trust in ourselves and our own people and that of our true allies.

Russian money made it expedient for us to look the other way, to supress, to cover-up or outright deny there was a problem.

We have to be better than that if we are to defeat this foe.

Edited March 12, 2022 by IMHAL

[slawek]

2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

I appreciate your opinion.

111 BTG's now in Ukraine.

Non-biased assessment I hope-

https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2022-03-10/russian-attack-ukraine-day-14

According to a Ukranian source,  31 have lost combat effectiveness.

111 BTG's are not the only Russian forces in Ukraine. BTG size is on average 750 people. That is only around 83k, total forces estimated by Americans are about 150k. 

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-btg.htm

[NorthamptonBear]

Series of letters supposedly outlining how FSB are trying to frame the narrative internally and externally - this is the latest one.

TLDR: FSB shocked by invasion, painted rosy picture pre-war to keep bosses happy, can't believe invasion happened, chaos in invasion force, economy in peril, assurances to China of short invasion, will lose Chinese support, China will choose Europe over Russia, can't afford to be included in sanctions, Iran & Venezuela can replace Russian oil.

Narrative that USA set a trap for Russia (Russia as victim again).

The key element to Russian negotiation aims is to neuter Ukrainian anti-misinformation, so eventually FSB can eat Ukraine from within through culture wars, lies etc. Attempts will be made at highest levels with foreign contacts/governments to control Ukraine and force a peace to Russia's liking.

My thoughts are that this is what the trolls, Russian agents and their collaborators/Quislings will be pushing here and elsewhere. Beware of lobbyists, journalists and politicians showing their true colours.

 

 

 

 

[slawek]

3 minutes ago, NorthamptonBear said:

TLDR: FSB shocked by invasion, painted rosy picture pre-war to keep bosses happy, can't believe invasion happened, chaos in invasion force, economy in peril, assurances to China of short invasion, will lose Chinese support, China will choose Europe over Russia, can't afford to be included in sanctions, Iran & Venezuela can replace Russian oil.

Surprised but I am on the same page with FSB here.

7 minutes ago, NorthamptonBear said:

Narrative that USA set a trap for Russia (Russia as victim again).

It is possible.

4 minutes ago, NorthamptonBear said:

The key element to Russian negotiation aims is to neuter Ukrainian anti-misinformation, so eventually FSB can eat Ukraine from within through culture wars, lies etc. Attempts will be made at highest levels with foreign contacts/governments to control Ukraine and force a peace to Russia's liking.

I doubt this will work. After what they did in Ukraine, virtually everybody hates them there. The public in the West has also shifted. Russians have lost all their hard work of 10-20 years in a few days. 

[IMHAL]

2 minutes ago, slawek said:

Surprised but I am on the same page with FSB here.

It is possible.

I doubt this will work. After what they did in Ukraine, virtually everybody hates them there. The public in the West has also shifted. Russians have lost all their hard work of 10-20 years in a few days. 

I doubt it too. They have lost all aspects of credible deniability. The is no excuse that will wash. They will be excluded for generations or for as long as it takes to effect change. That change, as you have alluded to before, needs to be carefully considered.

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, Staffsknot said:

OK apologies if I seem at bit harsh but the last few days have been quite a few numpties screaming about if you don't accept their version of events you are a Putin stooge or that the Russian army is dead & buried.

The 48hrs I mentioned ended with that convoy starting to move to encirclement positions.

Didn't see in the article 111 BTGs but a BTG is a non-fixed military battlefield formation that nicks elements from other administrative formations. We do the same with a battlegroup marrying elements from tankies, armoured inf, engineers, etc...

A BTG is different in that the artillery assets are built in. But to get more BTGs you can just peel off 2 inf companies and a tank coy and add in support assets and voila new BTG. It exists for a temporary timespan then can fold back in or join another BTG or even remain independent with more support or stuff removed.

Also VDV is independent and run its own BTGs.

Russia claims 170 of them, but probably about 150 inc doing the minimum 2 inf coy to a tank coy.

If 31 are claimed by Ukraine to be combat ineffective I take with pinch of salt but how that can happen:

- critical losses across the board

- loss of tank coy or critical losses ( its just armoured inf)

- losses of inf or inf vehicles critical ( the tanks cannot advance without inf support / inf without vehicles cannot keep pace with advancing tanks)

- loss of key support assets necessary

- mechanical losses or stores

- ammunition or fuel below critical threshold ( cannot manouvre or hold position)

- loss of C&C ( basically all the people capable of stepping up are casualties and you are left with junior NCOs & improv command structure ).

This list is not exhaustive but hopefully covers off most of it.

The 111  BTG (out of 117) was in the 8th March report. If there is ten tanks per BTG is matched your 1200 modernised figure.

Article also states there are 15 BTG either side of Kiev (I think, I get confused by the place names. 

How effective they are, dunno. There is give and take on both sides.

Another Ukrainian article claims Russia controls 1/3 of the airspace, which haven't the size 

As for shelling Kiev, should be interesting if they are willing to destroy their holy city, the founding city of the Ruski Mir

[Brave New World]

Perhaps because of covid scars HPC moves from being informative to myopic yet again.

It's horrible to say but there's more nuanced debate on pistonheads.

All very black and white. People making valid points about ukraine post 2014 (TV stations have been switched off, there are clear far right undertones in the country - reference amnesty international and what happens to gay rights activists, there have been ethnic blood shed). If you don't know or accept that perhaps spend more time reading and less time message board arguing. 

The seeds of this were laid in the build up to 2014. The overthrow of an elected leader (fact), why not wait till the next UN observed elections?....ah yeah because the US was doing what it does best, regime change.

Of course I blame the despot mafia leader in Russia, of course this invasion is sickening (can the boomer generation inclined towards the old methods of war as enabler please f*ck off). Of course we all wish for a younger, future facing leadership for russia but yet again the seeds speed for so much ill yet again sowed by USA. This should have been handled much sooner. 

 

Yet again the masses will pick up the tab whilst the few benefit on both sides of the Atlantic. 

BTW anyone fancy watching Oliver stones take on ukraine.....shan't hold my breath, no doubt (to use an hpc bingo word of late) he's a useful idiot too.

[Lucky Larry]

1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

Because you say it in such a way as to imply there's some sort of equivalence. Russia's behaviour is completely off the chart compared to what Ukraine's done. Trying to hint at there being some sort of equivalence is a common tactic by people supporting ar*seholes.

That's your interpretation , nowhere did I say that the response by Putin was the same as the crimes committed by the Ukrainians . The West backed the coup that overthrew the democratically elected Govt 8 years ago yet no condemnation for that , 14000 dead in the 8 years since by Ukrainian troops and militias yet no condemnation. If you are going to criticise an ar*sehole for being one then don't limit it to what side they are on . Once again the West is complicit in creating conflict for political gain and innocent civilians suffer for it . Rather than label me a Putin apologist take your blinkers off and see that 2 wrongs don't make a right. 

[Riedquat]

1 minute ago, Lucky Larry said:

That's your interpretation , nowhere did I say that the response by Putin was the same as the crimes committed by the Ukrainians . The West backed the coup that overthrew the democratically elected Govt 8 years ago yet no condemnation for that , 14000 dead in the 8 years since by Ukrainian troops and militias yet no condemnation. If you are going to criticise an ar*sehole for being one then don't limit it to what side they are on . Once again the West is complicit in creating conflict for political gain and innocent civilians suffer for it . Rather than label me a Putin apologist take your blinkers off and see that 2 wrongs don't make a right. 

Yawn. "Nowhere did I say" - did I claim you did? That's the whole point of the word "imply." You're now resorting to inaccurate nit-picking, followed by going back to the ludicrous comparisons that demonstrate a complete and utter lack of perspective.

Although if you're trying to claim that the West is somehow responsible for Russia invading then you're just plain screwed up in the head, although such twisting narratives are common enough self-justifications for people who don't want to admit reality. The people who make them are generally unaware of just how cringeingly embarrassing they look to everyone else (certainly seems to be the case in Russia these days).

[Big Orange]

The Russians not only systematically frightened/alienated just about everybody relevant with their invasion, making Putin look like an angry idiot and off brand Hitler on international mass media, their standing military (still partway through modernisation) got shattered through very, very poor planning and deployment (compounded by corruption and Covid).

In under 21 days their loss in men and material easily rivals (or exceeds) their over 3000 days in Afghanistan!

[pig]

9 hours ago, satsuma said:

Who cares, yawn, they are either stupid or just dont care

No precisely the opposite.

People here fell for a fake idea of sovereignty .  And Patels immigration policy is to all intents and purposes founded on the Breaking Point poster.

All sorts of ‘clever’ arguments were employed to sustain the antagonism. They really ‘cared’.

Ill grant you many are rowing back on Patels clusterfeck  due to Ukraine, and the government may have fallen behind the curve. But I’ve still heard many caught up in it.

So imagine what has happened inside Russia. Couldn’t it be possible that Russians are just as susceptible to and capable  of sustaining tendentious cr4p in the face of reality ?

 

[Riedquat]

3 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

The Russians not only systematically frightened/alienated just about everybody relevant with their invasion, making Putin look like an angry idiot and off brand Hitler on international mass media, their standing military (still partway through modernisation) got shattered through very, very poor planning and deployment (compounded by corruption and Covid).

In under 21 days their loss in men and material easily rivals (or exceeds) their over 3000 days in Afghanistan!

There's a huge dose of irony involved in just how much this supposed show of Russian strength, to build a stronger country, has weakened it so badly, and the longer this carries on for the weaker it'll get, but there's far too little self-awareness and far too much pride and ego to have the courage to stop.

[Lucky Larry]

13 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Yawn. "Nowhere did I say" - did I claim you did? That's the whole point of the word "imply." You're now resorting to inaccurate nit-picking, followed by going back to the ludicrous comparisons that demonstrate a complete and utter lack of perspective.

Although if you're trying to claim that the West is somehow responsible for Russia invading then you're just plain screwed up in the head, although such twisting narratives are common enough self-justifications for people who don't want to admit reality. The people who make them are generally unaware of just how cringeingly embarrassing they look to everyone else (certainly seems to be the case in Russia these days).

It is how you have interpreted my words , once again " if you're trying to imply" If I want to imply something I will, you are desperate to label people so you can scream and shout Putin apologist at them rather than wait for evidence they are . "If you're trying to claim" blah blah blah 

 

[miguel]

9 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

There's a huge dose of irony involved in just how much this supposed show of Russian strength, to build a stronger country, has weakened it so badly, and the longer this carries on for the weaker it'll get, but there's far too little self-awareness and far too much pride and ego to have the courage to stop.

So much for the super intelligent and great strategist called Putin. Wot a shthead. 

[Riedquat]

4 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

It is how you have interpreted my words , once again " if you're trying to imply" If I want to imply something I will, you are desperate to label people so you can scream and shout Putin apologist at them rather than wait for evidence they are . "If you're trying to claim" blah blah blah

Just how what you're saying seems to say to me, nothing more. And since you're not offering any clariifications or good reasons to show I've got it wrong, just ranting back, I've got no reason at all to believe that I have got it wrong. You've pretty much ignored every criticism of what you've been saying.

It shouldn't be hard to understand that the ludicrous pushing of "balance" is the evidence that someone is a Putin apologist. If you don't want people to think you are one you're not doing a very good job of it!

[Blobsy]

26 minutes ago, miguel said:

So much for the super intelligent and great strategist called Putin. Wot a shthead. 

While the rest of us were watching box sets and pornhub during lockdown, he was obsessing over books on Peter the Great.

I still have faith in the long down trodden Russian folks to do the right thing, they did after all put bullets in their own Royals nipping any aristocratic noncing in the bud.

[Lucky Larry]

15 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

It shouldn't be hard to understand that the ludicrous pushing of "balance" is the evidence that someone is a Putin apologist.

Hahahaha oh dear if I want to support Putin I would do so , why would you think I would care what you or anyone else on here thinks . Putin is a bad man and the Ukrainians are not innocent over the last 8 years , their human rights record would rule them out joining the EU. Does you ignoring the Ukrainians behaviour makes you an apologist for neo Nazis ?

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

1 hour ago, Brave New World said:

Perhaps because of covid scars HPC moves from being informative to myopic yet again.

It's horrible to say but there's more nuanced debate on pistonheads.

All very black and white. People making valid points about ukraine post 2014 (TV stations have been switched off, there are clear far right undertones in the country - reference amnesty international and what happens to gay rights activists, there have been ethnic blood shed). If you don't know or accept that perhaps spend more time reading and less time message board arguing. 

The seeds of this were laid in the build up to 2014. The overthrow of an elected leader (fact), why not wait till the next UN observed elections?....ah yeah because the US was doing what it does best, regime change.

Of course I blame the despot mafia leader in Russia, of course this invasion is sickening (can the boomer generation inclined towards the old methods of war as enabler please f*ck off). Of course we all wish for a younger, future facing leadership for russia but yet again the seeds speed for so much ill yet again sowed by USA. This should have been handled much sooner. 

 

Yet again the masses will pick up the tab whilst the few benefit on both sides of the Atlantic. 

BTW anyone fancy watching Oliver stones take on ukraine.....shan't hold my breath, no doubt (to use an hpc bingo word of late) he's a useful idiot too.

Good post, balanced approach appreciated 👍.

[Lucky Larry]

4 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Good post, balanced approach appreciated 👍.

Ditto 

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

2 hours ago, Brave New World said:

BTW anyone fancy watching Oliver stones take on ukraine.....shan't hold my breath, no doubt (to use an hpc bingo word of late) he's a useful idiot too.

Edit: With out redacted/censored subtitles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-UJ8S63Tsw
click through messages to play.

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
updated

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Big Orange said:

The Russians not only systematically frightened/alienated just about everybody relevant with their invasion, making Putin look like an angry idiot and off brand Hitler on international mass media, their standing military (still partway through modernisation) got shattered through very, very poor planning and deployment (compounded by corruption and Covid).

In under 21 days their loss in men and material easily rivals (or exceeds) their over 3000 days in Afghanistan!

That doesn't mean they will stop Ukraine is a far bigger prize than Afghanistan. 

On a Sunday I visited the Rising museum in Warsaw and saw just how far aggressors will go to subdue a country and its population. It really does look as if Ukraine might go the same way.