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BayAreaBear

An Update From Bayareabear

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As many old timers will know the BayAreaBear periodically posts to this site a chart of the UK and US house prices expressed in gold ounces. The time has come for another update so here is is.

housegold.png

As you can see the HPC that so many have waited for is fully established. Silently and deceiptfully the fraudent bankers are robbing both homeowners and prospective home owners. The value of homes is falling rapidly, but so is the value of money saved towards buying one.

But by supreme irony the idiot buffoon Brown also sold the public's gold (even as he robbed their pensions also) and so the loss is compounded twice over.

It may be of some comfort to those still in the thrall of the statists and naively trying to save their worthless paper that the price of UK houses still has to resume its traditional place relative to US housing (i.e. lower). However this comfort might rapidly dissipate on the realization that such might occur via a "repricing" of GBP to the US dollar (say to 1.00 or so). Scary thought!!

Regards to all

BayAreaBear

post-697-1140059755.png

Edited by BayAreaBear

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I always look out for your posts BAB - once again thanks for the graph !

I find it interesting that UK price/au has slipped back to 2003 levels, yet the peak and trough in the US is even more acute. Rising later yet falling faster - back to 1997 levels.

I'm not sure I can agree with you about the £ falling versus the $ --- what do you base this on ?

Is it because the media are predicting IR cuts in UK versus rises in US ?

If so, I think that this is smoke and mirrors - I don't expect UK Irs to fall significantly this year.

On the contrary I believe the pressure is all the dollar which is only maintaining its relative position because all nations are trying to keep the world economy going by matching the US inflationary position.

Its a mistaken belief that the deflationary pressures of globalisation can be delayed through vast increase in the money supply.

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As many old timers will know the BayAreaBear periodically posts to this site a chart of the UK and US house prices expressed in gold ounces. The time has come for another update so here is is.

housegold.png

As you can see the HPC that so many have waited for is fully established. Silently and deceiptfully the fraudent bankers are robbing both homeowners and prospective home owners. The value of homes is falling rapidly, but so is the value of money saved towards buying one.

But by supreme irony the idiot buffoon Brown also sold the public's gold (even as he robbed their pensions also) and so the loss is compounded twice over.

It may be of some comfort to those still in the thrall of the statists and naively trying to save their worthless paper that the price of UK houses has resume its traditional place relative to US housing (i.e. lower). However this comfort might rapidly dissipate on the realization that such might occur via a "repricing" of GBP to the US dollar (say to 1.00 or so). Scary thought!!

Regards to all

BayAreaBear

Hi BayAreaBear

I believe you are correct about the HPC being underway. As a former SD resident you may be interested in this article in the SD Union if you have not already seen it:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...-bn13homes.html

The median price of new homes dropped $104,000.00 in one month. The overall median is expected to fall 5% in the 1st Q and 5% in the 2nd Q. If those figures are accurate we can expect far worse because panic selling will take over if it has not already done so.

RB

Orange County Register reports massive drop in January--

"Orange County home prices took a tumble in January, with the median price falling below $600,000 for the first time in eight months. DataQuick reported today that the median sale price for all residences sold in January was $582,000, down 6 percent from December's record $621,000 but still up 9 percent from January 2005."

"Sales volume was weak, too, as 2,594 homes sold; down 11 percent in a year. This was the slowest January since 1997."

"January is a traditionally weak month, with fewer big families buying bigger, pricier homes. This January's seasonal slump was amplified by a rush of sales of new, lower-priced homes."

"Last month, developers sold 426 new homes, slightly more than double the sales of January 2005 and the highest January count since 1989."

"New homes sold last month include conversions of old apartments to condos and two high-rise condos in Irvine. This relatively cheaper housing helped push the median new-home price for January down 36 percent in a year to $472,000. That's the lowest new-home median price since June 2002."

http://passport.ocregister.com/register/co...5f1000109%2ephp

Edited by Realistbear

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Greetings to Assetpriceinflation and RealistBear.

Assetpriceinflation, here are my thoughts on the GBP/USD cross. I start from the premise that UK house prices will, at some point, resume their traditional place in the greater scheme of things and be typically not as expensive as a US house. There are two ways that can happen. If the GBP/USD rate stays the same or increases then UK nominal house prices would have to fall much, much more than US nominal house prices. That could happen but I think it much more likely that the idiots at the BoE will trash the pound. The political pressure on the BoE from the Labour communist party and the general public will be just too great. In which case the traditional relationship will be restored by a relative fall of the GBP

And on this side of the Atlantic we have a currency that may be more difficult to intentional trash than GBP. As MEW shuts down over here the Asians will feel the cool breeze and do their best to keep up the USD. Plus the Wily fed know the extreme danger of trashing the dollar rapidly even if the US government dont.

These are not forecasts. Just some scenarios to think about. Timing is the greatest uncertainty.

RealistBear, I share your interest in the SD market. Actually from some research that I dont publish here I know that if you convert SD prices and UK prices to a common currency (US, GB, Gold - it does not matter) then SD and the UK have been matching each other, month to month, for years. The apparent cooling in the UK preceded that in SD only because of trend changes in the exchange rate. This made me realize some time ago that the house boom is truly global and keyed of a truly global factor. There is only one truly global factor - the federal reserves egregious misspricing of time. Thus the UK decline has had to wait for the fed. Perhaps now the moment has come. UK and SD can head down together like the two halves of the Titanic.

BAB

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The crash is not just confined to the West Coast, East Coast sinking also:

http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=258920

Feb. 14--A sharp drop in house construction coupled with an anemic job market drove down the latest forecast for Rhode Island's economy.

And now, the Midwest:

http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=259257

Homes Lingering on Market
Source: Journal-World
Publication date: 2006-02-12

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Hi BAB

Where are you getting median prices for UK from?

Halifax. Everything on the charts is monthly. Gold price is the average for the month. Latest month is January

Edited by BayAreaBear

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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