Dorkins Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 (edited) After Boris and Rishi's stamp duty and 95% mortgage pumps we're back on the 2014-2019 trend line of a little under 70k now. Let's see where it goes next. Edited November 29, 2021 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiley George Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Quick Rishi, think of another prop pleeaassseeeeeee! Won't someone think of the EA's?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 (edited) Just saw this data. Very unexpected drop AND this is before Omicron hit the scene. This is actually the first indicator that the housing market is stuttering on its climb. Very good news if you want housing to go down a bit. Edited November 29, 2021 by henry the king Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 (edited) Am I reading this wrong or is this "fall" just us reverting to the mean for the period 2014-19? Nothing to see.....yet Edited November 29, 2021 by Drummer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Dorkins said: After Boris and Rishi's stamp duty and 95% mortgage pumps we're back on the 2014-2019 trend line of a little under 70k now. Let's see where it goes next. thought that might happen That line is going to go a bit lower.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Dorkins said: After Boris and Rishi's stamp duty and 95% mortgage pumps we're back on the 2014-2019 trend line of a little under 70k now. Let's see where it goes next. Crikey! Down she goes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 "The amount borrowed also fell sharply to a net £1.6billion, from £9.3billion in September, but experts said none of this was of concern." - the Daily Mail's comedy script of the day (lots to choose from) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Drummer said: Am I reading this wrong or is this "fall" just us reverting to the mean for the period 2014-19? Nothing to see.....yet Correct, it is just a reversion to the 2014-19 mean. It will take a while to see how this translates into sales prices and volumes but it would appear that the flood of mortgage credit that drove the 2020-21 market has slowed right down. Personally I suspect it will be difficult to support 2021 prices without 2021 levels of lending. Edited November 29, 2021 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steppenpig Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Presumably the areas under the graph above and below the trend line need to approx match, so it looks like it should drop below trend for a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Dorkins said: Correct, it is just a reversion to the 2014-19 mean. It will take a while to see how this translates into sales prices and volumes but it would appear that the flood of mortgage credit that drove the 2020-21 market has slowed right down. Personally I suspect it will be difficult to support 2021 prices without 2021 levels of lending. Yep and without higher prices you cannot get the equity to keep this going as round here your old house buys a new one not the job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Dorkins said: Correct, it is just a reversion to the 2014-19 mean. It will take a while to see how this translates into sales prices and volumes but it would appear that the flood of mortgage credit that drove the 2020-21 market has slowed right down. Personally I suspect it will be difficult to support 2021 prices without 2021 levels of lending. Agreed. And market interest rates are higher too so that won't happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 hours ago, gruffydd said: "The amount borrowed also fell sharply to a net £1.6billion, from £9.3billion in September, but experts said none of this was of concern." - the Daily Mail's comedy script of the day (lots to choose from) It's not a concern, till you look at the number of properties listed for sale..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: thought that might happen That line is going to go a bit lower.... Is that why your planning to buy in January? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Some interesting takeaway points from the report: Approvals for house purchases, an indicator of future borrowing, fell to 67,200 in October, from 71,900 in September. This is the lowest since June 2020, and is close to the 12-month average up to February 2020 of 66,700. Approvals for remortgaging (which only capture remortgaging with a different lender) rose slightly to 41,600 in October. This remains low compared to the 12-month average up to February 2020 of 49,100, but is the highest since March 2020 (42,700). The ‘effective’ interest rate – the actual interest rate paid – on newly drawn mortgages fell 19 basis point to 1.59% in October, which is a new series low. The rate on the outstanding stock of mortgages ticked down 1 basis point to a new series low of 2.03%. Households deposited an additional £5.5 billion with banks and building societies in October. In addition, households deposited £0.9 billion into National Savings and Investment (NS&I) accounts in October, which are not captured within household deposits but can act as a substitute for them. The combined net flow into both deposits and NS&I accounts in October (£6.4 billion) compares to an average net flow of £11.9 billion in the twelve months to September 2021 (Chart 3). The combined October net flow was slightly higher than pre-pandemic flows: in the year to February 2020, the average net flow was £5.5 billion. 67,200 approvals- Typically/historically a slow down at this time of the year however? Remortgages dropping alot though, though everyone would be looking to lock into a deal now as potential hikes are on the way. Could it be that as this data only captures remortgages with a different lender that, people are simply remortgaging with their current lender. What has furlough meant for mortgage earnings and multiplies, I wonder. If you got furlough has this made it difficult to obtain lending? I expect for self employed people it will have... 0.9bn in NSI?? NSI have a 0.65% AER bond, fixed for 3 years (https://www.nsandi.com/products/green-savings-bonds) and inflation is currently at.....oh deary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 hours ago, Data Dave said: Typically/historically a slow down at this time of the year however? The BoE mortgage approvals data has already been seasonally adjusted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 14 hours ago, Drummer said: Am I reading this wrong or is this "fall" just us reverting to the mean for the period 2014-19? Nothing to see.....yet Isn't that the point? It shows the COVID mini boom is over and everyone has stopped rushing to buy at any cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 If I was a betting man, Id put money for mortgages falling to ~40k/m for 2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, fellow said: Isn't that the point? It shows the COVID mini boom is over and everyone has stopped rushing to buy at any cost. Yeh exactly, but also the trend is still down. Chances are it will sink below the long term average again next month. The housing market is very vulnerable right now. To things like a covid spike or IR rises or inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twenty Something Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 (edited) 12 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: Is that why your planning to buy in January? Lol. I wonder how his short position on Rightmove shares taken on November 5th is working out too? November 5th closing price £7.03 November 30th price £7.45 with a month high of £7.63. I wonder what interest and fees @TheCountOfNowhere is currently amassing on the position? Even with a 20k a month oil shares profit that has got to be hurting a bit? Edited November 30, 2021 by Twenty Something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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