Covid - is there trouble ahead? New mutation and travel bans.

[Confusion of VIs]

8 minutes ago, miguel said:

And another says it's the younger lot who are in intensive care:

 

 

So old vaccinated with sniffles and young unvaccinated patients in intensive care?

More conclusive proof the vaccines don't work.

  

[vadst43]

9 minutes ago, henry the king said:

That guy is just a purveyor of half-truths and hearsay.

Can you give an example please?

[miguel]

4 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Its horseshit.

They said the same about Delta:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/health/covid-young-adults-sicker.html

There were also similar comments about Beta and the Brazil one I remember.

You can't go off personal experiences. Studies have to be balanced for many things and taking ANY indication from some doctors personal experience of demographic breakdowns is utterly worthlessOf course 

Of course we need more data/studies. I doubt anyone would disagree. We have one doc who says they are just seeing mild cases and another who works in intensive care who is seeing the young. So far it is pretty much all we have. No one is saying that it applies to white 30 year old males living in Carlisle. 

[winkie]

11 hours ago, thirdwave said:

I'm not a CoviD denier by any means- it undoubtedly kills the elderly and infirm- but increasingly sceptical of the aggressive rollout of vaccines among the young as the efficacy claims by the likes of Pfizer are dubious and there is some emerging evidence of lasting harm from mRNA vaccines

CoVid is reAl, it kills the elderly and compromised......I also do not agree that young people still at school or younger being universally vaccinated, other than those that have an existing medical need whereby their life would be in danger if they were infected....not the same but not unlike bacteria and antibiotics, viruses are smart and will create new mutations to survive and thrive, most people will not die, vaccinate the elderly and vulnerable........many die from flu,not everyone gets a flu vaccination, there are many variants of flu and vaccines to match........we have to be personally responsible for our own health and do what we can to stay safe and protected......if we are able, if not vaccines help to reduce risk of death.

[henry the king]

32 minutes ago, miguel said:

Of course we need more data/studies. I doubt anyone would disagree. We have one doc who says they are just seeing mild cases and another who works in intensive care who is seeing the young. So far it is pretty much all we have. No one is saying that it applies to white 30 year old males living in Carlisle. 

It is meaningless. There is zero we can draw from these anecdotes from doctors looking for their 5 minutes of fame.

Look at the dozens upon dozens of "covid cures" that were often championed by doctors based on their patients. And Delta was worse for young people.

Its the same virus, a variant isn't going to suddenly change to destroy young people. It still effects old people because they have more receptors to it. This will never change.

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by henry the king

[Oliver Sutton]

58 minutes ago, henry the king said:

People believe all this "natural health" BS is the problem. "If I eat healthy and go to the gym I am invincible". It is nonsense. A virus doesn't care about that stuff much. The main thing is how old you are. A 40 year old who is fit as a fiddle could still get into serious trouble with covid. Even 28 year olds can, but then it will just be a bad illness, not a life issue. 

People have been sold a "healthy living makes me invincible" lie by natural food companies and work-out companies. Its a big problem in Germany. 

Not saying being fit and healthy is bad, obviously it helps, but its not a silver bullet to a long and healthy life like people think.

Close second biggest factor is weight.

Being obese makes you 6 times more likely to die in younger age groups.

These people should be lauded, not mocked.

How many fatties have lost weight due to their fear of covid?

Probably next to none. Much easier just to get an experimental gene therapy injected into you.

And expect everyone else to get one because their "vaccine" won't work unless everyone les gets one.

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

7 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Close second biggest factor is weight.

Being obese makes you 6 times more likely to die in younger age groups.

These people should be lauded, not mocked.

How many fatties have lost weight due to their fear of covid?

Probably next to none. Much easier just to get an experimental gene therapy injected into you.

And expect everyone else to get one because their "vaccine" won't work unless everyone les gets one.

 

 

Also not just muscle strength, but cardio vascular fitness is vital. I'm 48, I row, my resting heart rate is 48 and I can still push it up to 215 BPM on a hard workout.  It is then back down to 70/80 within a couple of minutes.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[henry the king]

2 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Close second biggest factor is weight.

Being obese makes you 6 times more likely to die in younger age groups.

These people should be lauded, not mocked.

How many fatties have lost weight due to their fear of covid?

Probably next to none. Much easier just to get an experimental gene therapy injected into you.

And expect everyone else to get one because their "vaccine" won't work unless everyone les gets one.

 

Its not a close second factor at all. In one of the largest UK studies you can see the other risk factors:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042v1.full.pdf

Again this is just 1 study. You can't judge everything off 1 study or even a dozen studies. But the indication where age of 80+ has about 1300% more risk and being obese 37% more risk. So unless you think a factor of 35 difference is a "close second" then you are wrong.

It is also going to be very hard to balance out other factors relating to obesity fully in this analysis (i.e. activity could be a confounder). 

Your post is just misinformation. A skinny 80 year old is at 100x (or something) more risk that some fat 40 year old.

[dpg50000]

I still remember how the Kent variant was going to wipe out the planet last Christmas. Went pretty quiet that one, didn't it?

 

[byron78]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So old vaccinated with sniffles and young unvaccinated patients in intensive care?

More conclusive proof the vaccines don't work.

  

What? 

[MARTINX9]

One thing our media hasn't really mentioned is that the first four cases of Omicron were identified in foreign diplomats who had just arrived in Botswana from South Africa?

Who were these foreign diplomats, which country were they from and where are they now?

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/27/world/covid-omicron-variant-news

I wouldn't want to speculate on their nationality - but that has been mentioned on twitter locally. And it might shock you where the diplomats are supposed to be from based on those tweets! Yes - its twitter - so it may of course be BS.

We had a similar issue with the Kent variant - just because you discover a variant doesn't necessarily mean it started in your country. Its clearly widespread in SA and Botswana now - but can we be 100% certain it started there?

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by MARTINX9

[Pmax2020]

17 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Also not just muscle strength, but cardio vascular fitness is vital.

That was always my armchair assumption on these sorts of viruses - that the risk of serious illness is largely dependent on the health of your cardio vascular system, which naturally declines with age. 

Surely it’s why young people rarely get proper the flu and they regularly wipe their parents out with bugs that otherwise just give them a runny nose!!

Being older and/or overweight impacts your ability to fight most things. 

[Confusion of VIs]

33 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Close second biggest factor is weight.

Being obese makes you 6 times more likely to die in younger age groups.

Where did you get this from?

The figures I have seen don't even come close to supporting this claim.  

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

7 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

That was always my armchair assumption on these sorts of viruses - that the risk of serious illness is largely dependent on the health of your cardio vascular system, which naturally declines with age. 

Surely it’s why young people rarely get proper the flu and they regularly wipe their parents out with bugs that otherwise just give them a runny nose!!

Being older and/or overweight impacts your ability to fight most things. 

It is also linked to inflammation, which seems to be an issue with many diseases, including dementia.

 

[scottbeard]

3 hours ago, thirdwave said:

@slawek Take it from me, its the mRNA vaccines that don't work half as well as the manufacturers claim.

Sorry but I tend to just laugh when people say “ignore the published science - based on a sample of my mates down the pub it’s rubbish” 🙄

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

People have been sold a "healthy living makes me invincible" lie by natural food companies and work-out companies. Its a big problem in Germany. 

Not saying being fit and healthy is bad, obviously it helps, but its not a silver bullet to a long and healthy life like people think.

Do people REALLY think that? I’d have thought most healthy people think being fit is good for thyme, not makes them invincible.

25 minutes ago, dpg50000 said:

I still remember how the Kent variant was going to wipe out the planet last Christmas. Went pretty quiet that one, didn't it?

Absolutely NO ONE said it would wipe out the planet, just that it spread faster.  Which it did.  Then got overtaken by the even faster Delta.  It went quiet because things got even worse, not because it was overblown.

[Confusion of VIs]

13 minutes ago, byron78 said:

What? 

Sarcasm, but no doubt one of the "virologists" on here will be along shortly to claim it is.  

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Where did you get this from?

The figures I have seen don't even come close to supporting this claim.  

 

 

13 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

That was always my armchair assumption on these sorts of viruses - that the risk of serious illness is largely dependent on the health of your cardio vascular system, which naturally declines with age. 

Surely it’s why young people rarely get proper the flu and they regularly wipe their parents out with bugs that otherwise just give them a runny nose!!

Being older and/or overweight impacts your ability to fight most things. 

 

This seems a reasonable source to review: 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(21)00089-9/fulltext

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

These would seem to be the charts.

It looks likes like the risk is close to 6 x once people get up to the complete porker stage with a BMI of 42 (that is truly gross).

Interestingly most power athletes do clock in a bit high on BMI in comparison with say the NHS recommendation. But actually the chart does suggest the lowest risk is with a BMI of 26, which technically marginally overweight.  But I know from years of sport that a lot of athletes are taller than average (BMI as an accurate tool tends to be more wrong the taller you get) and are also packing muscle which weights more than fat.  You can usually tell these people, larger thigh muscles and bigger chests/arms and thinner waists. 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[henry the king]

26 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Sorry but I tend to just laugh when people say “ignore the published science - based on a sample of my mates down the pub it’s rubbish” 🙄

Do people REALLY think that? I’d have thought most healthy people think being fit is good for thyme, not makes them invincible.

Absolutely NO ONE said it would wipe out the planet, just that it spread faster.  Which it did.  Then got overtaken by the even faster Delta.  It went quiet because things got even worse, not because it was overblown.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/fit-and-healthy-man-42-from-southport-who-rejected-vaccine-dies-of-covid

Here is an example of someone who his family said he thought he was invincible. 

But in Germany, there is a huge natural health movement behind a lot of vaccine hesitancy.

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

26 minutes ago, henry the king said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/fit-and-healthy-man-42-from-southport-who-rejected-vaccine-dies-of-covid

Here is an example of someone who his family said he thought he was invincible. 

But in Germany, there is a huge natural health movement behind a lot of vaccine hesitancy.

 

 

I still reckon a lot of this is about underlying conditions, even if not know about.

There are also issues with with different blood groups. I'm O Negative which seems to be the best blood group at fighting coronaviruses, with O +ve also being good.

https://www.infectiousdiseaseadvisor.com/home/topics/covid19/o-negative-blood-had-lowest-probability-of-coronavirus-infection-abo-blood-types/

From myself and family (also all O ) there does seem to be a track record of never getting anything remotely like Flu.  I literally have not lost a day to cold/cough in 24 years of working an neither has my wife, and we have travelled extensively.  Including trips in the past to places with wet markets nearby.

 

[FallingAwake]

2 hours ago, henry the king said:

People believe all this "natural health" BS is the problem. "If I eat healthy and go to the gym I am invincible". It is nonsense. A virus doesn't care about that stuff much. The main thing is how old you are. A 40 year old who is fit as a fiddle could still get into serious trouble with covid. Even 28 year olds can, but then it will just be a bad illness, not a life issue. 

People have been sold a "healthy living makes me invincible" lie by natural food companies and work-out companies. Its a big problem in Germany. 

Not saying being fit and healthy is bad, obviously it helps, but its not a silver bullet to a long and healthy life like people think.

Sounds like a straw man.

Few people believe "healthy living" makes them invincible to covid.

From what I've seen, the people who believe in natural health also follow a set of protocols for dealing with a potential covid infection, which goes above and beyond "healthy living."

Of course, nowadays we live in a world where if it hasn't been funded with multi-million dollar peer-reviewed studies, triple approved by the FDA and sold in pill form for thousands of dollars, it can't possibly work.

This is why Pfizer is worth well over $200bn.

[henry the king]

11 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

I still reckon a lot of this is about underlying conditions, even if not know about.

There are also issues with with different blood groups. I'm O Negative which seems to be the best blood group at fighting coronaviruses, with O +ve also being good.

https://www.infectiousdiseaseadvisor.com/home/topics/covid19/o-negative-blood-had-lowest-probability-of-coronavirus-infection-abo-blood-types/

From myself and family (also all O ) there does seem to be a track record of never getting anything remotely like Flu.  I literally have not lost a day to cold/cough in 24 years of working an neither has my wife, and we have travelled extensively.  Including trips in the past to places with wet markets nearby.

 

The genetic factors are no doubt hugely important.

Do you have a lot of long life in the family? That isn't a complete indictor as this is a particular virus, but it does help show your susceptibility to things like cancer, heart disease and things.

I think I would be badly effected by a respiratory illness, they tend to hit me fairly hard. BUT on a lot of other things my genetics are probably indicative of long life. A lot of 90+ year olds in my family history, even dating back a few generations.

You never know of course. I could get sick or have a heart issue tomorrow and die. But generally my family has long health. Longer than anyone else I know probably.

Edited November 28, 2021 by henry the king

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

18 minutes ago, henry the king said:

The genetic factors are no doubt hugely important.

Do you have a lot of long life in the family? That isn't a complete indictor as this is a particular virus, but it does help show your susceptibility to things like cancer, heart disease and things.

I think I would be badly effected by a respiratory illness, they tend to hit me fairly hard. BUT on a lot of other things my genetics are probably indicative of long life. A lot of 90+ year olds in my family history, even dating back a few generations.

You never know of course. I could get sick or have a heart issue tomorrow and die. But generally my family has long health. Longer than anyone else I know probably.

 

Grandparents got well into the 90s, one to 96.  There also seems to be a habit of not having kids in my family until almost 40. There was some research I recall that showed that people with great expectations of life expectancy would often delay having kids; I'd also saw we perhaps mature a bit later as kids. I didn't really stop growing until I was in my mid 20s and wasn't really thinking about settling down until mid early 30s.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[henry the king]

5 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

Grandparents got well into the 90s, one to 96.  There also seems to be a habit of not having kids in my family until almost 40. There was some research I recall that showed that people with great expectations of life expectancy would often delay having kids; I'd also saw we perhaps mature a bit later as kids. I didn't really stop growing until I was in my mid 20s.

Kind of different for men anyway. As a man you can easily have kids at 50 and its not "old" necessarily. You just need a 30-something wife which is certainly not a rare age gap.

But yeh, genetic long life matters a ton imo. As does lack of cancer and heart disease in the family. 

[byron78]

Tbf, science also called new variants as well. It even pointed out they'd most likely pop up in Africa amongst unvaxxed populations with high levels of individuals with pre-existing diseases that already compromise their immune systems (HIV being the main one).