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Cml Announce New Survey

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Guest wrongmove

CML publishes data from the new regulated mortgage survey

Some 'highlights':

"In the fourth quarter of 2005, the survey shows 46% of all lending (£37.6 billion) was for house purchase, while 42% (£34.1 billion) was for remortgaging"

"First-time buyers (FTBs) accounted for 38% (108,500) of house purchase loans in the fourth quarter of 2005 - significantly higher than the old SML estimate. We believe RMS data is more reliable than the SML and does not therefore show a actual shift in the number of FTBs. Movers account for 62% (177,100) of loans in the same period. "

"FTBs borrowed a median average of 90% of the value of their property, while movers borrowed an average of 72% in the fourth quarter of 2005."

"The popularity of fixed-rate mortgages appears to have increased dramatically. Fixed-rate loans accounted for 76% of all lending in the fourth quarter of 2005, up from 68% in the third quarter and 56% in the second quarter."

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"First-time buyers (FTBs) accounted for 38% (108,500) of house purchase loans in the fourth quarter of 2005 - significantly higher than the old SML estimate.

I thought FTBs were down to 7% of buyers. How does this stack up???

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The staggering thing to me is the rapid growth in spreadsheet ML1 of the total amount of borrowing per quarter. In 2001 it was about £20bn a quarter and last year it was 3-4 times that much - good thing salaries have kept pace eh?

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Guest wrongmove

I thought FTBs were down to 7% of buyers. How does this stack up???

What was your source for this number ? Was it a reliable source ? Or did you just like the number ?

:)

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I thought FTBs were down to 7% of buyers. How does this stack up???

All sorts of people count as FTB's, as far as I'm aware the CML and others define FTB's as people who don't already have a house/mortgage. Al so there have been some BTL'ers who has gone for multiple FTB mortgages to get the best rates - naughty, naughty. Then you have the factor that all people requiring mortgages go through the mortgage route - another discrepancy between the NAEA stats and the lender's stats - the EA's will be sellling to cash buyers as well as people getting mortgages. Also, anndthis could be the biggie the builders have been building shedloads of small properties - up 10's% YOY, FTB fodder, hence more of these small places sold to FTB's outside of the EA chain, direct from the builders with the builders doing the sales direct and poiting to a suitable broker.

It is the NAEA figures that provide the incredibly low FTB numbers (7/8%). It is also the EA's that have to deal with chains, at these levels it is remarkable that any chains get compelted at all.

Edited by OnlyMe

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So the median ftb is aged 29; taking out a 90% mortgage; borrowing £94,037 and earns £30,531.

What sort of houses are these reasonably high earning FTBers buying? FFS.

I forgot to add they all have a £10 grand deposit as well.

Edited by Take me to the cleaners

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So the median ftb is aged 29; taking out a 90% mortgage; borrowing £94,037 and earns £30,531.

What sort of houses are these reasonably high earning FTBers buying? FFS.

Wouldn't even get you a studio flat where I live, and 30 grand is way more than the average salary around here...

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I thought FTBs were down to 7% of buyers. How does this stack up???

Simple. FTBs (7% of all buyers) took out 38% of all loans.

The other 93% of buyers and MEWers took out 62% of all loans.

Correct me if I am wrong...

I thought FTBs were down to 7% of buyers. How does this stack up???

Simple. FTBs (7% of all buyers) took out 38% of all loans.

The other 93% of buyers and MEWers took out 62% of all loans.

Correct me if I am wrong...

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This is complicated.

You have

x1 = no. of FTBs who buy with a mortgage using an EA

x2 = no. of FTBs who buy with cash using an EA

x3 = no. of FTBs who buy with a mortgage not using an EA

x4 = no. of FTBs who buy with cash not using an EA

x5 = no. of non-FTB movers who buy with a mortgage using an EA

x6 = no. of non-FTB movers who buy with cash using an EA

x7 = no. of non-FTB movers who buy with a mortgage not using an EA

x8 = no. of non-FTB movers who buy with cash not using an EA

x9 = no. of MEWers

The figure of 7% from the NAEA means (x1 + x2) / (x1 + x2 + x5 + x6) = 0.07

The figure of 38% from the CML means (x1 + x3) / (x1 + x3 + x5 + x7 + x9) = 0.38

frugalista

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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