CPI Due Wednesday 20/10/2021

[Timm]

Expected is apparently 4.1%. 

Action in the bond markets today seems to indicate it might be higher than that.

Any guesses?

[hughjass]

I dont know how about 5.1%. Anecdotal evidence, Spoons Coffee has gone up 20% its now 1.20

[Social Justice League]

IR's rises or rampant inflation.  Either way, most with big debts are going to feel pain.

[hughjass]

Wont those with big debts end up winners as the debt is eroded in real terms?

 

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

The horse is coming out of the bag.  The dance begins for the Unwashed.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

57 minutes ago, hughjass said:

Wont those with big debts end up winners as the debt is eroded in real terms?

 

The Politician’s threat (However Saintly) is keeping published data creditable, keeping housing “wealth” for the voting base, allowing National Debt to be eroded by inflation, and (God forbid) increasing Interest Rates to keep inflation within the published guidelines,  whilst remaining an tousled idiot that’s electable.

[Pmax2020]

One things for sure - whatever figure they report you could probably double it. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, hughjass said:

Wont those with big debts end up winners as the debt is eroded in real terms?

 

Only if they have wage inflation.

If you have price inflation and your working form home job is outsourced to India, what then ?

[Warlord]

Don't forget CPI is fiddled. The true inflation rate is already 10%+.

Peter Schiff says on one his podcasts that his father used to tell him that putting the government in charge of calculating the inflation rate is like putting the Mafia in charge of reporting crime statistics .

 

[GenZ]

If your a truck driver average wages from 20K moving up to 40K your debts just halved 

Obviously inflation  is bad in so many ways, debt erosion is one of the few up sides  

[Warlord]

5 minutes ago, GenZ said:

Obviously inflation  is bad in so many ways, debt erosion is one of the few up sides  

We all have to eat, etc. Massive out of control inflation (which is coming) is not good. Ask people in Zimbabwe, Argentina, Venezuela, etc

Edited October 19, 2021 by Warlord

[Warlord]

Also when you look at the countries that suffer high inflation they usually turn authoritarian.

Your assets are not safe from the government stealing them. Your bank accounts are not safe from the banksters looting them (see Cyprus, Argentina etc)

Get prepared.

[Dorkins]

2 hours ago, hughjass said:

Wont those with big debts end up winners as the debt is eroded in real terms?

 

A bigger gas and electric bill doesn't make it easier to pay the mortgage.

[Smiley George]

Just had my new energy supplier contact me after previous one went bust. I've crunched the numbers on the tariff and the results are as follows:

Gas  +60%

Electricity +36%

Are energy prices considered in CPI/RPI calculations?

[Pmax2020]

Yes but the ‘basket’ of items it’s based on doesn’t reflect what it is to live in 2021. People don’t spend more than half their income on milk and bread but they do on housing and energy. 

[scottbeard]

2 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

Yes but the ‘basket’ of items it’s based on doesn’t reflect what it is to live in 2021. People don’t spend more than half their income on milk and bread but they do on housing and energy. 

Here are the weights of CPIH (the one that includes housing).  What exactly do you think is unrepresentative?  I agree that some people's housing and energy costs are rather more than 32.8%, but then equally some people's housing costs are virtually zero and this is an overall average, so can't be exactly right for everyone.

CPIH Division
0.1 Food and non-alcoholic beverages	8.9%
0.2 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco	3.5%
0.3 Clothing and footwear	5.9%
0.4 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels	32.8%
0.5 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance	4.9%
0.6 Health	2.0%
0.7 Transport	10.7%
0.8 Communication	1.9%
0.9 Recreation and culture	11.2%
10. Education	3.0%
11. Restaurants & hotels	6.9%
12. Miscellaneous goods and services	8.3%
Total	100.0%

[Warlord]

7 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Here are the weights of CPIH (the one that includes housing).  What exactly do you think is unrepresentative?  I agree that some people's housing and energy costs are rather more than 32.8%, but then equally some people's housing costs are virtually zero and this is an overall average, so can't be exactly right for everyone.

CPIH Division
0.1 Food and non-alcoholic beverages	8.9%
0.2 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco	3.5%
0.3 Clothing and footwear	5.9%
0.4 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels	32.8%
0.5 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance	4.9%
0.6 Health	2.0%
0.7 Transport	10.7%
0.8 Communication	1.9%
0.9 Recreation and culture	11.2%
10. Education	3.0%
11. Restaurants & hotels	6.9%
12. Miscellaneous goods and services	8.3%
Total	100.0%

CPI not CPIH.  Guess which one is the "official" rate 

[coypondboy]

45 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Here are the weights of CPIH (the one that includes housing).  What exactly do you think is unrepresentative?  I agree that some people's housing and energy costs are rather more than 32.8%, but then equally some people's housing costs are virtually zero and this is an overall average, so can't be exactly right for everyone.

CPIH Division
0.1 Food and non-alcoholic beverages	8.9%
0.2 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco	3.5%
0.3 Clothing and footwear	5.9%
0.4 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels	32.8%
0.5 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance	4.9%
0.6 Health	2.0%
0.7 Transport	10.7%
0.8 Communication	1.9%
0.9 Recreation and culture	11.2%
10. Education	3.0%
11. Restaurants & hotels	6.9%
12. Miscellaneous goods and services	8.3%
Total	100.0%

Where is council tax as my biggest monthly bill and up 5-6% for last 3 yrs and will go even higher as pension liabilities for fireman and police and social cares costs continue to rise.  Also need to include private rent as assume housing is made up of mortgages (record lows) but rents at record highs due to shortgage in our area.   

[Flat Bear]

7 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

One things for sure - whatever figure they report you could probably double it. 

So 5% it is then. They will probably some how manage to keep it to 4.8 or 4.9% So they wont need to increase interest rates for a few months yet.

[Flat Bear]

3 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

So 5% it is then. They will probably some how manage to keep it to 4.8 or 4.9% So they wont need to increase interest rates for a few months yet.

Likely to be a new record increase even at low estimates.

[rollover]

Restaurants and hotels facing ‘terrifying’ 18% inflation

Supply chain chaos, labour shortages and ‘scourge’ of inflation expected to last years, says food and drink chief.

Restaurants and hotels are wrestling with “terrifying” inflation running as high as 18%, bosses have warned, as supply chain disruption and labour shortages wreak havoc in the hospitality sector.

Guardian

[Pmax2020]

I’ve been keeping Aldi receipts and within 2 months you can already see many items that have risen 5-10% in that time, veg and eggs for starters. The breaded chicken nuggets the kids like are up 20p to £1.69. 

There are just lots of 5, 10 & 20p increases on things that are only £1-2 within that very short time frame. 

[HomeAlone2]

I wonder if I asked the CEO of Tesco to do me a favour and "see through" these "transitory" effects of inflation and charge me the same prices as in mid 2020 if he'd agree. 

[rantnrave]

Data confirmed as 3.1%

[Timm]

18 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Data confirmed as 3.1%

That's alright then.