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Sisyphus

U S Jan Retail Sales Up 2.3%

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U S January Retail Sales up 2.3% (market forecast +0.9%)

strongest gains since May 2004.

No need for the FED to stop raising rates. I'm interested to hear what Bernanke will have to say tomorrow. Somehow I think he'll be anything but doveish.

Cable trying to break 1.73.

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U S January Retail Sales up 2.3% (market forecast +0.9%)

strongest gains since May 2004.

No need for the FED to stop raising rates. I'm interested to hear what Bernanke will have to say tomorrow. Somehow I think he'll be anything but doveish.

Cable trying to break 1.73.

Cable just broke 1.73 to 1.7292! 5% Fed rate guaranteed. If Gordon drops the rates sterling is not going to last at these high levels compared with historic average in the 1.50's.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/graph/liverealtimequotes.asp

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If Gordon drops the rates sterling is not going to last at these high levels compared with historic average in the 1.50's.

What 'historic average in the 1.50s'? AFAIR Sterling was at $5 to the pound a hundred years ago... historically even $2 to the pound would be very low, unless by 'historic' you mean the last ten years.

Edited by MarkG

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The dollar is gaining slightly but sterling is falling fast.

The UK trade deficit will be very interesting as our oil production continues to fall and demand continues to rise,

especially if the oil price climbs again after May. Ouch

Production of manufactured goods is falling too so there is little scope for closing the gap through increased exports.

Also credit continues to boom unabated and servicing debt, which consumes ever more disposable income, does not produce many new jobs.

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What 'historic average in the 1.50s'? AFAIR Sterling was at $5 to the pound a hundred years ago... historically even $2 to the pound would be very low, unless by 'historic' you mean the last ten years.

Sterling took off in September 2003 rising to almost 2.00. In the decade prior to that time Sterling moved in a comparitively narrow range in the 1.60's (not 1.50's). HPI also boosted sterling as the world bought into Gordon's "economic miracle." It was good while it lasted but now comes the day of reckoning as we survey the 1 Trillion pound plus debt mountain. The only "miracle" is that Gordon got away with it for so long.

Edited by Realistbear

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I wonder what effect Cable at 1.60 have on CPI?

could they just reshuffle the weightings to negate it?

The CPI numbers are like a rigged black jack table in vegas. The house can make the CPI numbers what ever it wants.

Tell the average guy in the street that his pay check can now go further because the CPI numbers have fallen.

He will show his insurance, petrol, housing, tax, tv, cell phone, repair costs, bills, which are all rising. Oh, okay, the microwave he bought at Dixons was only 30 squid. Shame he doesn't buy one every week.

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Oh, okay, the microwave he bought at Dixons was only 30 squid. Shame he doesn't buy one every week.

If it's as reliable as my cheap DVD player, he might have to buy a new one every week...

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The CPI numbers are like a rigged black jack table in vegas. The house can make the CPI numbers what ever it wants.

Tell the average guy in the street that his pay check can now go further because the CPI numbers have fallen.

He will show his insurance, petrol, housing, tax, tv, cell phone, repair costs, bills, which are all rising. Oh, okay, the microwave he bought at Dixons was only 30 squid. Shame he doesn't buy one every week.

just charted CPI vs RPI vs output PPI on Bloomberg since August 1999 - normalised at 100.

PPI 569

RPI 218

CPI 146

- unfortunately I can't send by Bloomberg terminal data here - have to find a link to the data elsewhere.

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I'm expecting $1.65 by year end!!!!!

HPC will be the sacraficial lamb.

but dollar will TANK against € and jpy.....I would think $/€ will be back up to 1.30+ in that timeframe.

looks like the IR differential is about to go -ve(yes that means sterling falls vs us$)

...also means that UK economy is in a FAR worse state than any official channel is letting on.We could be looking at a japan scenario!!!!!......falling asset prices and rising unemploment together are not a healthy combination.

Edited by oracle

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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