I think we might be wrong about a HPC

[dances with sheeple]

2 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Well why not post that then instead of what you did put up which I’ll quote again for clarity.

“If interest rates rise they have not bought what they thought they did, or do you disagree with this?“

If you are now expanding upon this to imply that everyone goes into a property purchase because it’s going to go up in value, then I again re-iterate my point that I don’t view huge numbers of the British public as financially illiterate morons who lack the insight and intelligence to understand the way of the world. I would indeed put forward the view that all these people have done incredibly well over the past 15 years that you have been banging on about price crashes and sheeple. 
 

To expand even further, it is your viewpoint that if people understood that property prices could drop then demand would go off a cliff edge? Or, if people possessed the special predictive powers of interest rate direction held by posters such as yourself then they would all run for the hills? You genuinely hold yourself in such high regard / others in such contempt that you believe they don’t understand that interest rates could rise and cause a reversal in price movements? 

To "understand" something properly you have to live through it, do you know how old someone would have to be to have been caught out by rising rates in the past? And in the past the ordinary guy and girl had nothing like the debt burden they have today......

I will for the last time clarify what the bit quoted obviously means, you seem to have had a Tardis moment and decided that my quote means that someone buying a property could think that they bought some other physical item that wasn`t a property?? or WTF are you talking about?

So, 

1) Many assumed they were buying a long term monthly commitment that would be less than renting.

2) Many assumed that the property would always increase in value.

3) Many didn`t think or think through enough the possibilities of expenses related to ground rents/fire compliance/other regulatory compliance

Rising interest rates could make 1 and 2 false and compound the financial distress caused by 3. End of explanation.

[Twenty Something]

55 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

To "understand" something properly you have to live through it, do you know how old someone would have to be to have been caught out by rising rates in the past? And in the past the ordinary guy and girl had nothing like the debt burden they have today......

I will for the last time clarify what the bit quoted obviously means, you seem to have had a Tardis moment and decided that my quote means that someone buying a property could think that they bought some other physical item that wasn`t a property?? or WTF are you talking about?

So, 

1) Many assumed they were buying a long term monthly commitment that would be less than renting.

2) Many assumed that the property would always increase in value.

3) Many didn`t think or think through enough the possibilities of expenses related to ground rents/fire compliance/other regulatory compliance

Rising interest rates could make 1 and 2 false and compound the financial distress caused by 3. End of explanation.

Ok. To move things along from your inability to construct a well worded argument. Your post above has more holes than a sieve. 

1) To have an appreciation WW2 as an example was bad, do I need to have lived through it? Sure, when I close my eyes at night I might not hear the air raid sirens and get flashbacks to bombs whistling through the air, but does that mean I can’t understand that the event wasn’t a positive thing for ‘many’? Your argument seems to be that because people are in some cases too young to have lived through high interest rates as an example, that they are therefore incapable of understanding it as a potentially bad thing for them? Has everyone who was caught out by rising rates in the past, and there will have been many, learned their lesson and never brought a property again? You as an example seem quite happy to speak for the masses in insinuating they are idiots, yet have you experienced as it were their lives?

2) Your statement that in the past the average person has had ‘nothing like the debt burden they have today’ is incorrect. From the ONS - ‘Debt as a proportion of household income rose from 85% in 1997 to 148% at its peak in early 2008.’ It has now decreased to 133% To add a bit more colour to this for you, they also note that ‘the cost of servicing debt is lower now than it was historically secondary to low interest rates.’ Counter this all you want with well interest rates are going up, but as it stands presently your statement is demonstrably wrong. 
 

3) The bit from so onwards…You again seem to be professing to understand the motives of ‘many’. To turn your first argument back on you, have you lived through all these people’s lives and experiences? If not, how can you really understand? The truth of course is you can’t. You want to lump property purchasers together into a collective who are all thick, don’t understand basic economics, and drive around in PCP mercs with their greasy hair and cheap aftershave. You can’t of course hope to be taken seriously with this viewpoint outside of this forum, but screaming home owners are stupid is a convenient way to disguise your own shortcomings, many of which I pointed out to you last time we clashed about your abysmal history of predictions. 
 

All you’ve really done is try to construct an argument from a bunch of assumptions about the ‘many’. Can you present any evidence to backup your assertions? I suspect not. Putting everything into neat little boxes such as homeowners = idiots prevents you from having to give any thought to your opinion, and of course it is lapped up on here amongst a congregation who would in some instances I suspect sell a kidney to see an economy ruining crash. When challenged, really all you have is you didn’t read my post properly and here is a load of assumptions I’ve made to prove a point. I strongly suspect you’re just angry because the sheeple have got on with their lives, but that would leave me open to accusations of assuming things about my fellow man, so I’ll stop there. 

Edited October 7, 2021 by Twenty Something

[dances with sheeple]

13 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Ok. To move things along from your inability to construct a well worded argument. Your post above has more holes than a sieve. 

1) To have an appreciation WW2 as an example was bad, do I need to have lived through it? Sure, when I close my eyes at night I might not hear the air raid sirens and get flashbacks to bombs whistling through the air, but does that mean I can’t understand that the event wasn’t a positive thing for ‘many’? Your argument seems to be that because people are in some cases too young to have lived through high interest rates as an example, that they are therefore incapable of understanding it as a potentially bad thing for them? Has everyone who was caught out by rising rates in the past, and there will have been many, learned their lesson and never brought a property again? You as an example seem quite happy to speak for the masses in insinuating they are idiots, yet have you experienced as it were their lives?

2) Your statement that in the past the average person has had ‘nothing like the debt burden they have today’ is incorrect. From the ONS - ‘Debt as a proportion of household income rose from 85% in 1997 to 148% at its peak in early 2008.’ It has now decreased to 133% To add a bit more colour to this for you, they also note that ‘the cost of servicing debt is lower now than it was historically secondary to low interest rates.’ Counter this all you want with well interest rates are going up, but as it stands presently your statement is demonstrably wrong. 
 

3) The bit from so onwards…You again seem to be professing to understand the motives of ‘many’. To turn your first argument back on you, have you lived through all these people’s lives and experiences? If not, how can you really understand? The truth of course is you can’t. You want to lump property purchasers together into a collective who are all thick, don’t understand basic economics, and drive around in PCP mercs with their greasy hair and cheap aftershave. You can’t of course hope to be taken seriously with this viewpoint outside of this forum, but screaming home owners are stupid is a convenient way to disguise your own shortcomings, many of which I pointed out to you last time we clashed about your abysmal history of predictions. 
 

All you’ve really done is try to construct an argument from a bunch of assumptions about the ‘many’. Can you present any evidence to backup your assertions? I suspect not. Putting everything into neat little boxes such as homeowners = idiots prevents you from having to give any thought to your opinion, and of course it is lapped up on here amongst a congregation who would in some instances I suspect sell a kidney to see an economy ruining crash. When challenged, really all you have is you didn’t read my post properly and here is a load of assumptions I’ve made to prove a point. I strongly suspect you’re just angry because the sheeple have got on with their lives, but that would leave me open to accusations of assuming things about my fellow man, so I’ll stop there. 

I read your post, and you misunderstood the fact that "buying" a property involves more than just taking possession of the physical structure, waffle about WW2 all you want but it is just that simple. The last proper property crash was in the late 80`s, are you seriously going to argue that the average man or woman in the street didn`t have much less exposure to debt then than they have now?

[Twenty Something]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

I read your post, and you misunderstood the fact that "buying" a property involves more than just taking possession of the physical structure, waffle about WW2 all you want but it is just that simple. The last proper property crash was in the late 80`s, are you seriously going to argue that the average man or woman in the street didn`t have much less exposure to debt then than they have now?

Nope, and if you actually read and digested what was being posted, you’d see that I wasn’t. I very clearly and evidentially posted that according to the ONS, debt rose steadily through to a record high in 2008. That is where it peaked. The highest point. The top. Therefore, and I am going to spell this out for you, your post stating that the general public have never been in as much debt as they are now is by all the measures I can find wrong. Of course instead of saying oh ok, you now want to make up that I was referring to the 80’s, which I wasn’t. I’m not sure how much clearer I can make this for you? 

You now seem to have completely missed the point being made about WW2. You were originally putting forward the viewpoint that unless you have physically experienced something, you can’t be aware of its impact. Take what you want - WW2, interest rate rises, the Brixton riots whatever, it doesn’t matter. You don’t have to have lived through something to have an understanding of it. How does history work? I didn’t live through many historical problems but I can still appreciate them as bad things. Your argument that because ‘many’ didn’t live through the last crash, they are clueless is ridiculous. 

Buying a property is just that. You take possession of the physical structure. That is what by law you are doing. How far into the rabbit hole do you want to go? People didn’t realise they’d have to replace the cooker? Take a new mortgage rate? Do the electrics and so on and so on and so on. What an utterly pointless argument. 
 

 

 

[dances with sheeple]

4 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Nope, and if you actually read and digested what was being posted, you’d see that I wasn’t. I very clearly and evidentially posted that according to the ONS, debt rose steadily through to a record high in 2008. That is where it peaked. The highest point. The top. Therefore, and I am going to spell this out for you, your post stating that the general public have never been in as much debt as they are now is by all the measures I can find wrong. Of course instead of saying oh ok, you now want to make up that I was referring to the 80’s, which I wasn’t. I’m not sure how much clearer I can make this for you? 

You now seem to have completely missed the point being made about WW2. You were originally putting forward the viewpoint that unless you have physically experienced something, you can’t be aware of its impact. Take what you want - WW2, interest rate rises, the Brixton riots whatever, it doesn’t matter. You don’t have to have lived through something to have an understanding of it. How does history work? I didn’t live through many historical problems but I can still appreciate them as bad things. Your argument that because ‘many’ didn’t live through the last crash, they are clueless is ridiculous. 

Buying a property is just that. You take possession of the physical structure. That is what by law you are doing. How far into the rabbit hole do you want to go? People didn’t realise they’d have to replace the cooker? Take a new mortgage rate? Do the electrics and so on and so on and so on. What an utterly pointless argument. 
 

 

 

Ok, so the general public won`t care too much if interest rates rise, the average person under 35 has been borrowing with an eye on rate rises and people knew EXACTLY how the property bubble was created and maintained when they scraped together family loans, couch money and a HTB scheme for a new-build in London, LOL, let`s just see how it pans out. People are wailing about a £20 p.w cut to benefits sending some into "poverty" FFS!

 

[PeanutButter]

A house very much like this one (terraced 4 bed) on one of my running routes has sold in less than a month - asking price 1.7mil.

Livable but needs updating. 

 

Last place that sold in the row was 1.3 and end of terrace 2020.

Now, this is clearly insane. 

[Twenty Something]

45 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Ok, so the general public won`t care too much if interest rates rise, the average person under 35 has been borrowing with an eye on rate rises and people knew EXACTLY how the property bubble was created and maintained when they scraped together family loans, couch money and a HTB scheme for a new-build in London, LOL, let`s just see how it pans out. People are wailing about a £20 p.w cut to benefits sending some into "poverty" FFS!

 

So, again you're changing the argument / making up a stance.

1) The general public probably will care if interest rates rise, just as they will care if petrol stays inflated after the current madness, or their Christmas Turkey is out of stock. I've not stated they won't. You have again made up a stance as if to counter something I have posted because you seem incapable of grounding your responses in something I have actually written - you might as well go sit in a room on your own and have a back and forth with the wall.

2) I don't profess to understand what the average person under 35 thinks, that's your speciality apparently, although you also include everyone of any age in any part of the country (? World). I would put good money on it that all of my friends could explain how interest rates work, and what impact rises would have on their mortgage repayments. I would make the same statement for all the youngsters I work with whether they own a house or not. I would also bet good money that most 'average' people under 35 who own a property could also outline the exact same thing.

3) You have been posting things similar to 'let's see how it pans out' for getting on the last 14 years. Just how have your previous predictions 'panned out'? Stupid sheeple, property bubble go pop, repeat after me. Maybe things will go as you so yearn for with a world ending financial collapse. Maybe they won't. Unlike yourself, I'm open to the possibility of both scenarios, though in reality I suspect things won't deviate by more than 30% either way from where we are now over the next decade.

4) People unable to get by with £20 a week less in benefits aren't the same people who are out bidding on London new builds. What another bizarre comparison to make!

 

[dances with sheeple]

1 hour ago, Twenty Something said:

So, again you're changing the argument / making up a stance.

1) The general public probably will care if interest rates rise, just as they will care if petrol stays inflated after the current madness, or their Christmas Turkey is out of stock. I've not stated they won't. You have again made up a stance as if to counter something I have posted because you seem incapable of grounding your responses in something I have actually written - you might as well go sit in a room on your own and have a back and forth with the wall.

2) I don't profess to understand what the average person under 35 thinks, that's your speciality apparently, although you also include everyone of any age in any part of the country (? World). I would put good money on it that all of my friends could explain how interest rates work, and what impact rises would have on their mortgage repayments. I would make the same statement for all the youngsters I work with whether they own a house or not. I would also bet good money that most 'average' people under 35 who own a property could also outline the exact same thing.

3) You have been posting things similar to 'let's see how it pans out' for getting on the last 14 years. Just how have your previous predictions 'panned out'? Stupid sheeple, property bubble go pop, repeat after me. Maybe things will go as you so yearn for with a world ending financial collapse. Maybe they won't. Unlike yourself, I'm open to the possibility of both scenarios, though in reality I suspect things won't deviate by more than 30% either way from where we are now over the next decade.

4) People unable to get by with £20 a week less in benefits aren't the same people who are out bidding on London new builds. What another bizarre comparison to make!

 

Right, bold prediction, lets see how it pans out. Basically my original assertion still stands, that people are far too used to zero rates and increasing house prices for their own financial good. IMO of course.....

[LandOfConfusion]

2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Now, this is clearly insane.

After an initial dip it does look like prices are back around here albeit off the back of very limited stock. I'm guessing this means the impact of inflation hasn't yet been felt and energy costs in particular are going to be a killer for many.

[Twenty Something]

10 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Right, bold prediction, lets see how it pans out. Basically my original assertion still stands, that people are far too used to zero rates and increasing house prices for their own financial good. IMO of course.....

And phrased like that I could have some degree of agreement with you. Low interest rates and cheap easy money have become an accepted norm, and I'm not saying I am blind to the possible consequences of that. 

[dances with sheeple]

Good.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/surprise-default-china-worsens-evergrande-051313570.html

[yelims]

4 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

A house very much like this one (terraced 4 bed) on one of my running routes has sold in less than a month - asking price 1.7mil.

Livable but needs updating. 

 

Last place that sold in the row was 1.3 and end of terrace 2020.

Now, this is clearly insane. 

That’s just shocking price 

[PeanutButter]

1 hour ago, yelims said:

That’s just shocking price 

As far as I can tell it’s simply down to stock. ANY house 3 bed+ around here that comes up with a decent garden - and the garden is the key requirement - is selling at hundreds of thousands more than even one year ago. 

The people who bought the 1.3mil house which needs complete refurb could bung it on the market tomorrow and clear min 400k profit guaranteed. 

Beyond dysfunctional.

Meanwhile a guy I work with bought zone 2 semi 20 years ago for 900k, valued for remortgage now at 4.5mil.

How can this continue?

Edited October 7, 2021 by PeanutButter

[Pop321]

1 hour ago, PeanutButter said:

As far as I can tell it’s simply down to stock. ANY house 3 bed+ around here that comes up with a decent garden - and the garden is the key requirement - is selling at hundreds of thousands more than even one year ago. 

The people who bought the 1.3mil house which needs complete refurb could bung it on the market tomorrow and clear min 400k profit guaranteed. 

Beyond dysfunctional.

Meanwhile a guy I work with bought zone 2 semi 20 years ago for 900k, valued for remortgage now at 4.5mil.

How can this continue?

I think some people massive underestimate sentiment and sentiment driven by lack of supply. Like a drowning man gasping for air it can almost feel like an impossible thing to find a home…..then when you realise the water is only 12 inches deep you start to wonder what the fuss was all about.

Yesterday petrol shares drop and then  today they rise…mining companies rocketed  5% today, why were we all so wrong yesterday selling shares at in the falling market. 5% in a day…makes a mockery of a savings account  

We personally have started the process of moving hone and we are looking at the impossible task of buying a villa in the best area of town. An impossibility apparently….but we know things will change and we can wait. Genuinely can make the difference between paying 50% less at these high price levels…happy to wait for an old dear who can’t sell the big house (or ground floor flat) because those 14 foot ceiling cost a fortune to heat.

We humans are a funny fickle bunch and have surprising short memories. I can’t even remember why everyone was selling Mining shares on Wednesday but buying them back so aggressively today.  Ebb and flows.  

[Si1]

11 hours ago, yelims said:

That’s just shocking price 

I feel there is a lot of keeping up with the Joneses going on. Ok so lots of people have some extra spare cash from WFH etc.

So instead of trying to buy the same place they would have done and accepting a bit of a premium but trying to make the most of the low interest rates, I'm guessing they're leveraging their equity to the max to get something to show off. My guess.

 

[Dweller]

I know I have said this before but it has to be the first time in history surely that properties don't sell since May and yet they go up £30,000! See it all the time! 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/107286302#/?channel=RES_BUY

We were due to see a property on Friday but EA phoned to say there's 15 people booked for Friday with a waiting list for viewings therefore as we had  said it wasn't worth the 10 hour round trip if there would be a bidding war on the already hugely inflated price they rang to let us know so we could cancel . The property in Q there was barely room to get a  sofa in the living room so lord knows who these people are rushing to buy it @ £20,000 + over the asking price ! People as desperate as we are only with deeper pockets I guess ! 

[Smiley George]

2 minutes ago, Dweller said:

£20,000 + over the asking price !

It's got a big clock and some kind of decorative lantern in the fireplace, surely that's worth at least £20k?

[Dweller]

3 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

It's got a big clock and some kind of decorative lantern in the fireplace, surely that's worth at least £20k?

Obviously people didn't think so in May now they will have to pay £30,000 more for the clock! 

[btd1981]

Many people are reactive irrational nutjobs and unbelievably easily played.

 

The fuel crisis was like a microcosm of the housing market, played out over days, not months/years 

[Trump Invective]

1 hour ago, btd1981 said:

Many people are reactive irrational nutjobs and unbelievably easily played.

 

The fuel crisis was like a microcosm of the housing market, played out over days, not months/years 

Ha I like that! Only problem is now fuel is pricier! Hope that doesn't play out for housing

[MARTINX9]

8 hours ago, Dweller said:

I know I have said this before but it has to be the first time in history surely that properties don't sell since May and yet they go up £30,000! See it all the time! 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/107286302#/?channel=RES_BUY

We were due to see a property on Friday but EA phoned to say there's 15 people booked for Friday with a waiting list for viewings therefore as we had  said it wasn't worth the 10 hour round trip if there would be a bidding war on the already hugely inflated price they rang to let us know so we could cancel . The property in Q there was barely room to get a  sofa in the living room so lord knows who these people are rushing to buy it @ £20,000 + over the asking price ! People as desperate as we are only with deeper pockets I guess ! 

Love the name of the road its on.

Nice one Cyril, nice one son, nice one Cyril let's buy another one! The cockerel chorus.

[Dweller]

Just been on the phone to my sister in Norfolk she said that people she knows in London and in Norfolk (selling/buying houses) have said that there are not just multiple offers over the asking but the people buying are then  asked by the EA to write a letter putting forward why they want the property!! Can you imagine! But what do EA's do if they have multiple offers over the asking how do they decide which offer gets  the property? 

My sister also works for various charities in Norfolk and the competition and bidding wars on rentals have priced so many  people out due to a shortage of rental properties. 

Made me think about NZ where I believe years ago people were priced out of the buying and rental markets and people were renting out their garages as a home and renting a bit of lawn for tents so where does this kind of madness end? 

[Smiley George]

34 minutes ago, Dweller said:

so where does this kind of madness end?

Blood on the streets? People start to snap under the strain, lash out against the system and start attacking the establishment and their MP's.

[Trump Invective]

10 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Blood on the streets? People start to snap under the strain, lash out against the system and start attacking the establishment and their MP's.

Oh no, those people are lone nuts with no beliefs, they never have grievances

[Dweller]

I know I KEEP saying the same thing over and over but I still don't GET how a £220,000 property in 2020 is now selling at £280,000 + and still locked into multiple viewings and waiting lists and bidding wars. 

I GET that if someone has sold their property for £60,000 over the 2020 value then they can buy a property at £60,000 over the 2020 value but why were we told in 2019 that anything over £230,000 was difficult to sell and yet now those £230,000 properties are all £285,000 +?  
People in 2016 - 2019 selling a property at £280,000 could buy a property at £280,000 or whatever so why were properties over £230,000 difficult to shift during that time? And yet now are selling like hotcakes! 

We were also told about properties at £255,000 earlier this year that they were slow to move because they were out of the reach of most FTB, yet all the FTB properties are now£60,000 + over what they would have been in 2020 yet again are selling within days. 

So what was happening from 2016 -2020  ? And what is happening now? And why are mortgage lenders happily lending £60,000 + over the 2020 /early 2021 value? 

This isn't going to change any time soon is it....

It is easy to add £25,000 (first 6 months of 2021 ) to a £220,000 property then £50,000 and by September £60,000 to the value of the property (and still multiple viewings) but that doesn't come down as quickly does it when EAs value properties by what other people have their properties on for. 
It has to be the first time in history that that asking price for  properties that haven't sold for 6 months have just gone up and up and up! 

So given that there has been a 50% shortage of properties all year (due to C19) and then historically there is a shortage of properties between November and March (nobody wants to sell at Christmas,  so what will that be 75% shortage of properties until March ?) will property prices just continue UP AND UP AND UP  and lenders will just keep lending £60,000 + over the 2020 value?