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Baby shortage - UK economic decline


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So it appears the UK is on the brink of a major economic decline caused not just by Brexit/C19 etc, but also a demographic time bomb.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/sep/20/british-baby-shortage-could-lead-to-economic-decline-says-thinktank

I assume most on the forum know how babies are made, but prior to that it helps if there is a stable family home and that the income of one earner is sufficient to pay expenses. Clearly, many women are forced back into work, but with the high cost of childcare it may also be too expensive.

May be we should give up and join Mumsnet!!!

 

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13 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

So it appears the UK is on the brink of a major economic decline caused not just by Brexit/C19 etc, but also a demographic time bomb.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/sep/20/british-baby-shortage-could-lead-to-economic-decline-says-thinktank

I assume most on the forum know how babies are made, but prior to that it helps if there is a stable family home and that the income of one earner is sufficient to pay expenses. Clearly, many women are forced back into work, but with the high cost of childcare it may also be too expensive.

May be we should give up and join Mumsnet!!!

 

500,000 migrants are admitted to this country every damn year! How more mouths do these f***wits expect the country to feed?

 

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Reality is most ladies want it all and dont want to be sat at home with kids.  I listened to one recently scoff about how a friend had done nothing but change nappies.  I thought it was a bit sad as I do admire the closeness of the family.  The current model of UK society where constant growth is needed and that machine needs to be fed with cheap labour has its cost.  The cost includes people working too hard to keep us with increasing prices and putting family a poor second to career and position for some dismal job.  

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There are going to be a lot of very unhappy 40 year old women floating about. These will be the tyrants of the future determined to spread their misery about.

They have been sold a false version of happiness that will crumble away and it will all be too late once they realise.

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Judging by my 30-40something acquaintances it's hard to see how the UK will ever hit replacement fertility again. A lot of people have no children at all (lifelong singles or dual income couples that for whatever reason don't start the baby game), a fair few decide around 40 to pop one out and that's it, and the most family-oriented have 2 kids and stop for economic reasons. However you weight those 3 groups the fertility rate is going to come out at less than 2 children per woman.

In b4 somebody with Daily Mail brainworms starts banging on about chavs and teenage pregnancy, have you seen the data lately? Teenage pregnancy fell off a cliff after 2007:

http://www.independentnurse.co.uk/article-images/image-library/124/fig_2__6cc8c664.jpg

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6 minutes ago, doomed said:

There are going to be a lot of very unhappy 40 year old women floating about. These will be the tyrants of the future determined to spread their misery about.

They have been sold a false version of happiness that will crumble away and it will all be too late once they realise.

Yep. And only half their lifespan gone, although they tend to shorten them with alcohol and toxoplasma gondii.

Of the ones who do have children, many destroy their relationships with their children by binning them off to some minimum wagie stranger so they themselves can go earn less than minimum wage.

At least women are far better off now than before feminism!

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20 minutes ago, Locke said:

Yep. And only half their lifespan gone, although they tend to shorten them with alcohol and toxoplasma gondii.

Of the ones who do have children, many destroy their relationships with their children by binning them off to some minimum wagie stranger so they themselves can go earn less than minimum wage.

At least women are far better off now than before feminism!

Even a sexist bloke like me can easily fill in for a woman kids wise. Even though i am now worth 7 figures I have forbidden my wife to stop working, covid showed me everyone in the house 24/7 is not healthy for relationships, and i wouldnt give the marriage more than 2 years. 

But, nappy stage with the kids is long gone and i love driving one kid to school, then walking the other, and collecting them, pottering about the house. I have always done the cooking and 90% of the grocery shopping so life is very very easy right now. 

Our kids both did private nursery 7am to 6pm , from 1-4. Neither seem unhappy at all.  

Have promised the wife once my in0laws are out (deadline by 7th Jan 2022) then i will pay for a cleaner 3 days a week, Mon, Wed, Fri so the wife doesn't have to come home and clean weekdays or spend hours at the weekend doing it. 

Now working on a plan to become a "Yummy Hubby" again. 

 

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29 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Judging by my 30-40something acquaintances it's hard to see how the UK will ever hit replacement fertility again.

As a planet we need to run at below replacement for several hundred years to get to a sustainable position again.  The west will start it and the others will follow

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3 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

As a planet we need to run at below replacement for several hundred years to get to a sustainable position again.  The west will start it and the others will follow

The whole point of being here is to pass on your genes. There are going to be a lot of sad old lonely people about.

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39 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

As a planet we need to run at below replacement for several hundred years to get to a sustainable position again.  The west will start it and the others will follow

I think east Asia are the real trendsetters here, Japan's population has been falling for a while now, South Korea's has just started and the fertility rates of places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and PR China are all below 2 children per woman.

Edited by Dorkins
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1 hour ago, doomed said:

There are going to be a lot of very unhappy 40 year old women floating about. These will be the tyrants of the future determined to spread their misery about.

They have been sold a false version of happiness that will crumble away and it will all be too late once they realise.

Go on any dating app and the horde of 30 something plus women who are a ‘proud mum’ of a cat or dog is insane. Also lots of them saying they own a home/car (we know what that really means - lots of debt). Read between the lines and what they are really saying is ‘I don’t need a man’, which is a shame because they really do. Men are turning around and saying ‘sod that’ - end result birthdate collapses.

Edited by LetsBuild
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42 minutes ago, doomed said:

The whole point of being here is to pass on your genes. There are going to be a lot of sad old lonely people about.

No - they just need to have 1-2 children instead of 2-4.

An average fertility rate of 1.8 would be below replacement yet probably allow most people who want children to have 2 given that not everyone even wants them.

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10 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

I think east Asia are the real trendsetters here, Japan's population has been falling for a while now, South Korea's has just started and the fertility rates of places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and PR China are all below 2 children per woman.

Spot on - Japan really was the first, which teaches me for saying “the west” when I kind of meant “developed/richer countries”

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1 minute ago, scottbeard said:

No - they just need to have 1-2 children instead of 2-4.

An average fertility rate of 1.8 would be below replacement yet probably allow most people who want children to have 2 given that not everyone even wants them.

I'm not really talking about replacement numbers, just the massive hole that is going to be left in people's lives without having at least one child.

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2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

500,000 migrants WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION AGENTS are admitted to this country every damn year! How more mouths do these f***wits expect the country to feed?

 

They take money off a middle class money hoarders and hand it to someone else, who'll spend it on rent and food/clothes/petrol/coffee/amazon tat/etc

The money then goes to the rich/bankers/tax spongers.

It's the biggest scam in history.

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1 hour ago, satsuma said:

Reality is most ladies want it all and dont want to be sat at home with kids.  I listened to one recently scoff about how a friend had done nothing but change nappies.  I thought it was a bit sad as I do admire the closeness of the family.  The current model of UK society where constant growth is needed and that machine needs to be fed with cheap labour has its cost.  The cost includes people working too hard to keep us with increasing prices and putting family a poor second to career and position for some dismal job.  

Men are just as capable at looking after children as women are....some men are far better than some women.....what sex a person is has nothing to do about anything imo.......the only thing a man can't do is give birth, nowadays in and out of hospital in a day.....in the past it was the wider family that shared childcare or even the community......as the old saying says very wisely, it takes a village to bring up a child.;)

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3 minutes ago, doomed said:

I'm not really talking about replacement numbers, just the massive hole that is going to be left in people's lives without having at least one child.

you assume your offspring will always be there for you and dont move away to another country maybe to live their life. 

 

you  cant live your life through others

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5 minutes ago, doomed said:

I'm not really talking about replacement numbers, just the massive hole that is going to be left in people's lives without having at least one child.

And what I’m saying is that we can run a population at below replacement level ratio whilst still l’ leaving everybody who wants to have a child to have at least one child. You can have a sustainable population and still not have heartache left right and centre.

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3 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

you assume your offspring will always be there for you and dont move away to another country maybe to live their life. 

 

you  cant live your life through others

Nope. Nothing would make me happier than watching my children do what makes them happy, no matter where it takes them.

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57 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

As a planet we need to run at below replacement for several hundred years to get to a sustainable position again.  The west will start it and the others will follow

Amen to that. Common sense seems to go out of the window in some cases when it comes to population, from people who easily see the sheer nonsense in pyramid schemes everywhere else but defend them when it comes to population numbers, one where the pyramid scheme attitude can do far more damage than anywhere else.

Whilst a very rapid demographic shift and decline would be difficult to manage if all the so-called "progress" over the last century doesn't mean we can't manage it then I've really got to question just what we've really gained from it.

Anyone in any position of influence who doesn't welcome the idea of a declining population is too dangerous to be there. Now of course how you achieve it matters hugely, very much an end does NOT justify the means for many ways, but if it's happening due to people simply not having as many children all's well and good.

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3 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

And what I’m saying is that we can run a population at below replacement level ratio whilst still l’ leaving everybody who wants to have a child to have at least one child. You can have a sustainable population and still not have heartache left right and centre.

We are talking past each other at this point.

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