Inflation apocalypse - food prices rise 33% year on year... and now there's a fertilizer production crisis!

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

1 hour ago, Flat Bear said:

This is what I am worried about

There are certain events and things that are happening that I feel I had seen before in the 1970s very early 80s, but there are other things that are much worse.

In 1979 I remember suppling an alternative copper that was around 30% more in price that would not bend and had very limited uses. There was just no copper available for any price. The London Brick Company who was the major suppliers of the lower end fletton brick range were quoting 7 months lead time on all types of bricks. All the other brick and tile manufacturer had lead time that were even more extended. I was quoted 2 years for a certain type of clay roof tile but only if I ordered early. We all thought it was only temporary and the madness would come to an end. House prices were shooting up in real terms on top of inflation that was running at a similar rate as today, in fact it was less than I am currently experiencing. Wages were going up but not as quick as prices. Companies could not keep up with growing demand and choices became limited in all aspects as supply lines broke.

It has to be remembered that in 1976/7 the guy with the big eyebrows had gone to the IMF and took out the biggest loan in history 4 billion pounds? Because of the balance of payment crisis or currency crisis as some called it. I remember him on telly with a massive smile on his face saying everything is ok because he secured this loan. I was quite young but can remember thinking how is he going to pay this back?

By the early 1980s the whole landscape started to come to a standstill as companies decided to call it a day and the tax increases that came in took hold. We had already had the official winter of discontent which had become a permanent period of discontent. I remember passing a large group of people outside a large engineering works on strike, they had been on strike several weeks apparently. Passing just a week later the place was boarded up as the company had gone into liquidation but there was still a couple of strikers standing outside bemused. Some people were talking about their quality of life and working less hours whilst employers should pay them more, it was a surreal time.

Then came the stagflation which was a horrible period. Although officially it was in the 1970s it seemed to be more painful for me in the early 1980s as the economy came to a standstill. It seemed like a recession that would last forever but in reality, only lasted a few years.

Today I am seeing more supply problems, not just on a relatively selected range of commodities like the 70s but everything. Inflationary pressure is much higher now than then 10x more.

Yes, it is true that the problems started with the loose fiscal policies of the 1960s and 1970s and the large amount of debt that had been accumulated but this was nothing like we have now. The debt build up of the 1970s was limited in a way by interest rates as even the totally irresponsible Labour party realized they had to pay a large amount of interest on their borrowing. The debt today has been unlimited and is easy to service with a zero percent interest rate, so the debt has just grown and grown until it has become impossible to pay it back even with the longest hardest recession possible. So a collapseflation is on the cards.

I was speaking to a buyer in a major retailer the other day - they said the volatility right now is incredible - they just don't know where the shortages will be from one day to the next - very challenging to predict.

[winkie]

Make the best of what is available at the time.....

[markyh]

4 hours ago, kzb said:

Welcome to the future folks !

No-one is obligated to supply you with stuff you need.  Their only obligation is to show a profit.

Spare capacity is investment that is not performing.  No business wants capacity that is unused for any time.  Your future will consist of queuing for everything and hoping it's your turn for some electric tonight.

Interesting, my personal family Income and next wealth has recently gone up 5 x , just as prices are rising, and energy getting more expensive. I wonder how high Petrol and Diesel prices ca go?  £2 ltr, £3 ltr? 

I guess we will be sitting in local restaurants eating out watching you lot queue for food. 

[winkie]

1 hour ago, markyh said:

Interesting, my personal family Income and next wealth has recently gone up 5 x , just as prices are rising, and energy getting more expensive. I wonder how high Petrol and Diesel prices ca go?  £2 ltr, £3 ltr? 

I guess we will be sitting in local restaurants eating out watching you lot queue for food. 

When and were is the party......

[msi]

6 hours ago, Si1 said:

The central bank response and instinct will be to drop interest rates and extend QE. Again.

QE helps suck up Government Borrowing - but the markets are now calling out the Emperor is naked, so borrowing has to come down.  Lower rates are pointless if no one is borrowing.

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, msi said:

QE helps suck up Government Borrowing - but the markets are now calling out the Emperor is naked, so borrowing has to come down.  Lower rates are pointless if no one is borrowing.

Good point... or the ones who they want to borrow don't want to borrow.

[dugsbody]

17 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

How do the BoE justify a 0.1% base rate any longer? Surely they announce next week it’s to rise?!?! Even to just 0.25%?!

Because a significant rate rise will cause chaos and as long as the brexit government is in charge they will not allow any possibility of that, or people might start to escape the brexit cult and ask proper questions. At most they'll tinker around the edges of rates to pretend they're doing something.

The answer to all your questions is always:  this government is in continuous campaign mode and need to keep the masses focused outward. Their primary objective is to control the narrative. All they care about is the next election.

[btd1981]

On 18/09/2021 at 12:35, kzb said:

That Guardian article is a reminder that modern agriculture is simply a way of turning fossil fuels into edible food.  It takes ten times the calories that are actually in the food, as fossil fuels, to supply us with food.

So a cyclist is effectively burning ten times his actual food calories as fossil fuels.

 

Do you have a reference for this? Not that I doubt you, just have never considered this before and that's a real eye opener if true

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

and now there's this: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-gas-price-energy-supply

[Confusion of VIs]

On 18/09/2021 at 13:30, debtlessmanc said:

Basically the uk has to get fracking

Good luck with that. I used to drive past the fracking protests when visiting my parents in Blackpool. The scale of the protest was growing right up until when fracking was banned. 

Rumour had it that Cuadrilla wasn't that upset about the eventual ban as by then they had realised that the potential of the site was nothing like they had hoped for. 

Fracking would just be a distraction that would achieve nothing in the next 5yrs, if ever, and delay work on more practical solutions. 

[debtlessmanc]

22 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Because a significant rate rise will cause chaos and as long as the brexit government is in charge they will not allow any possibility of that, or people might start to escape the brexit cult and ask proper questions. At most they'll tinker around the edges of rates to pretend they're doing something.

The answer to all your questions is always:  this government is in continuous campaign mode and need to keep the masses focused outward. Their primary objective is to control the narrative. All they care about is the next election.

Whatever Brexit has achieved or not achieved, it has brilliant distracted people like you from all the U.K. and worlds other problems.

[satsuma]

 As I said before the Tories are now out of bullets.  Inflation is here and it will continue, not least because Asia is getting richer and we printed too much money.  Gas prices may come back down but not by much.  

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Has food prices gone up 33% or has the value of the $ collapsed 33% ?

[PeanutButter]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Has food prices gone up 33% or has the value of the $ collapsed 33% ?

Why not both?!

[Social Justice League]

It will be hyperinflation for all rather than IR rises for over indebted fookwits.

Everyone must pay for the feckless.  Western capitalism is dead and buried anyway and has been for decades.

[dugsbody]

5 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

Whatever Brexit has achieved or not achieved, it has brilliant distracted people like you from all the U.K. and worlds other problems.

A feeble attempt at misdirection.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Oh dear. https://www.channel4.com/news/government-has-let-energy-companies-use-the-market-like-a-casino-founder-of-green-energy-firm-says

[winkie]

On 18/09/2021 at 13:54, byron78 said:

The fish market lady who went viral has flagged up the BBC having no interest in further reporting an anti-Brexit story here.

It's a pretty depressing watch tbh. All the issues we knew about and simply ignored are now breaking our import/export system.

Instead of simply labelling it "Project Fear", maybe we should have come up with an actual plan and listened to the people who actually work in these industries instead of snakeoil salesmen like Farage?

 

Sad, but that is what we voted for.......to make life more difficult, expensive and to have less freedom and choice.

[PeanutButter]

Maggots and mayhem: behind the scenes of Britain’s big bin crisis

Thanks to the HGV driver shortage, many refuse collectors are quitting to earn up to £30,000 more driving lorries. But what does this mean for our streets, as the rubbish and recycling piles ever higher?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/21/maggots-and-mayhem-a-day-on-a-bin-round-in-broken-brexit-britain

[PeanutButter]

JFC no wonder they’re leaving

 

He would be lying if he said he hasn’t considered leaving. “A guy just left here and he’s gone up to £44,000,” says Gee. “All he does is drive from Didcot to Exeter.” But for now, he plans to stay put. “If I was in a lorry driving up and down the motorway all day I’d be on my own,” he says. “At least I’ve got these two idiots to talk to.” Gee is paid £24,000 a year. “That’s quite a sad salary,” he says, turning to me with a frank, open smile. “Isn’t it?”

[Si1]

24 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Maggots and mayhem: behind the scenes of Britain’s big bin crisis

Thanks to the HGV driver shortage, many refuse collectors are quitting to earn up to £30,000 more driving lorries. But what does this mean for our streets, as the rubbish and recycling piles ever higher?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/21/maggots-and-mayhem-a-day-on-a-bin-round-in-broken-brexit-britain

Do you want your bins collecting or do you want to protect boomers' house prices? (Considering they're retired and can go to the local tip)

[winkie]

3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Do you want your bins collecting or do you want to protect boomers' house prices? (Considering they're retired and can go to the local tip)

Not got a problem with bin collection..... understand some places do, what is the problem, lots of both young men and women can see now doing the job......many of the older generation have left the driving industry, now is our chance to train and pay our younger drivers, invest in the future...... something we have neglected to do, people don't work forever.........they also don't care what something is worth if it is not for sale.

[winkie]

If we are to grow more of our own food for humans to eat we will need fertile land....more food less grass.

[byron78]

I think the cat is out the bag about RE: Brexit.

Seeing lots of things like this on my timeline from folks who are usually pretty tolerant of the government.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

3 minutes ago, byron78 said:

I think the cat is out the bag about RE: Brexit.

Seeing lots of things like this on my timeline from folks who are usually pretty tolerant of the government.

 

I really hate turkey anyway, good excuse not to eat it this year. 
Perhaps there is a Brexiter Uncle we can fatten up for Christmas instead!