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Time to raise the rents.

Cpi 1.9%

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PPI is rampant, RPI YOY is now up to 2.4%....but CPI under control - everything is hunky dory.

Go back to sleep everyone.

Now it is me, or wasn't it 2.0% at the last announcement? The link shows Dec was 1.9%, but that's not what I remember.

Has it therefore been revised? Or is my memory on the way out? :(

revised

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Your government is lying to you. Keeping people poor but believing that they're rich.

PIERRE-JOSEPH PROUDHON (1923)

To be GOVERNED is to be watched, inspected, spied upon, directed, law-driven, numbered, regulated, enrolled, indoctrinated, preached at, controlled, checked, estimated, valued, censured, commanded, by creatures who have neither the right nor the wisdom nor the virtue to do so. To be GOVERNED is to be at every operation, at every transaction noted, registered, counted, taxed, stamped, measured, numbered, asssesed, licensed, authrised, admonished, prevented, forbidden, reformed, corrected, punished. It is, under pretext of public utility, and in the name of the public interest, to be placed under contribution, drilled, fleeced, exploited, monopolised, extorted from, squeezed, hoaxed, robbed; then, at the slightest resistance, the first word of complaint, to be repressed, fined, vilified, harrassed, hunted down, abused, clubbed, disarmed, bound, choked, imprisoned, judged, condemned, shot, deported, sacrificed, sold, betrayed; and to crown all, mocked, ridiculed, derided, outraged, dishonoured. That is government; that is its justice; that is its morality."

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£ immediately down 0.2% against the $.

This has taken the market by surprise.

We could be in for a rate cut.

Sell £.

Edited by karhu

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The BOE can be independent. But their actions can be controlled by adjusting the CPI figures, say by weighing them more in favour of DVDs and computers and away from energy and housing.

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Guest Riser

The ONS can't keep this Bullsh1t up for long there has got to be a limit to Browns interference with their measures. I suppose if you pay civil servants enough you can get them to tell you anything.

Brown can only have a window of at most three months to take over as PM before the tide of bad economic news he is holding back through distorted figures and spin sinks his political aspirations for the top job.

Can't they understand that transport costs eventually have a knock on effect on everything we consume possibly with the exception of information.

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Hmm. So speaking as someone that lives in the Eurozone - The average UK house price has fallen 700 Euro today! :)

Plus the YEN is strengthening against $ due to recent changes in the BOJ policy.

GBP down 0.5% against YEN.

We're importing inflation.

Expect those DVD players to start getting more expensive.

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Guest Riser

IR futures down too. This has increased the chances of a UK IR cut.

The message from the BBC is clear just look at the picture on their Buiseness news page

'BUY'

_39676867_buy203.jpg

BBC UK inflation level steady at 1.9%

UK inflation stays at 1.9% in January, inside Bank of England targets, official figures show

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The US $ may be safer than the Euro. Why? Everyone is ignoring the deficit which may be a reflection of the fact that the US and China are too closely tied for the dollar to drop thereby undermining the value of the Chinese notes. IR are headed skyward in the US with a possibility of 5% by May. US GDP is healthy. Then there is the question as to how much of the money being "spent" on Chinese goods is finding its way back into US coffers given the amount of US owned interests in that country.

Gordon "miracle economy" Brown is on the horns of a dilemma. If he drops IR the pound tanks. If he raises the rates the HPC happens sooner rather than later. Underlying inflation is rising rapidly (2.4%) and now that Al is the de facto chief economic advisor my guess is that its better for Gordo to raise rates and keep inflation in check and to allow the property market to find its own level. Al will be telling him to let the "froth" go from the house market and weather the storm. That way the pound drops a little, maybe 20%, and recovery can begin in about 2 years time.

If he lowers rates he allows the house froth to continue and indebtedness push toward the 1.5 trillion mark which will set the beast of inflation on a rampage. My bet is Al will say raise 'em.

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...ON-UPDATE-1.XML

LONDON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - British inflation stood below its 2.0 percent target in both January and December, boosting expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates soon.

The Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday that consumer prices fell 0.5 percent in January, keeping the annual rate of inflation at 1.9 percent, the same as the downwardly-revised December level.

The pound fell more than a third of a cent while interest rate futures rallied as dealers priced in more cuts in borrowing costs given that analysts had expected CPI to pick up to 2.1 percent from December's originally reported 2.0 percent.

The biggest upward effect came from transport costs as fuel prices rose. Fuels and lubricants added 0.16 percentage points to the annual rate. The biggest downward effect came from furniture and household goods.
Edited by karhu

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I think we're about to see a new 12 month low in cable. :ph34r:

not certain if you look at the chart - there is support at these levels - if we break 1.73 you may be right.

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not certain if you look at the chart - there is support at these levels - if we break 1.73 you may be right.

I was looking at the fundamentals rather than the technical analysis. Fundamentals have changed. I expect the 1.73 support to be broken soon.

Anyone care to comment on the following interesting observation:

The biggest upward effect came from transport costs as fuel prices rose. Fuels and lubricants added 0.16 percentage points to the annual rate. The biggest downward effect came from furniture and household goods.

Sounds like it may be connected with the slowdown in house sales.

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Shi*********** Gone For Euros!

To cheer you all up:

Strategists said that while the data would support talk that

the next move in interest rates would be down, the BoE had

already forecast that inflation would dip below target and

therefore there was no clear case for a cut.

"Consequently, the benign price data seen here are a crucial

yet not a sufficient precondition for lower rates," said Richard

McGuire, a fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"Tomorrow's Inflation Report will be key in gauging whether

the Monetary Policy Committee has shifted its stance on either

its growth or inflation outlook and, hence, whether hopes of

lower rates on the back of today's price data are justified."

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...TS-UPDATE-2.XML

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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