Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Guest Riser

Halifax - Down 0.4% In January

Recommended Posts

Guest Riser

Halifax show prices fall 0.4% in January although their seasonal adjustment is known to be all over the place. The most significant point could be tat the number of First Time Buyers is at its lowes level since 1980!

BBC will probably spin this as "Annual rate of house price growth remains unchanged at 5.1%"

UK house prices fall for first time since May 2005

According to Halifax's House Price Index, house prices decreased by 0.4% in January, representing the first decrease since May of last year.

On an annual basis, house price inflation is unchanged from last month at 5.1%, and significantly below the 13.7% annual growth rate recorded in January 2005.

The research also shows that the number of first time buyers, at an estimated 320,000 in 2005, was 10% lower than in 2004 and 40% lower than in 2002, putting it at its lowest level since 1980.

Halifax went onto say that it expected the market to be flat in 2006 with modest nominal house price growth and no change in real terms. UK house prices are forecast to rise by 3% in 2006, broadly in line with the predicted rise in retail price inflation.

Edited by Riser

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know I am tired today..

But would anyone else here gladly run into the BBC with a big box of hungry wolves and let them all go...

See, tired....

I don't feel bad for me, I feel bad for the idiots who trust them..

Hey BBC, having trust in you is a terrible thing... How do you feel about that?

Grumpy today..

If Mr "I have a self cert mortgage and an IO repayment scheme but I love to gloat about how cool my situation is" smug tw*t even smiles at me I will phone the police and report his **** for fraud..

.. First day of the nicotine patches too

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
UK house prices fall for first time since May 2005

Up down, down up, the carousel continues...

So basically, a fall like the one we've just seen also happened in May 2005, after which prices rose again?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser

Up down, down up, the carousel continues...

So basically, a fall like the one we've just seen also happened in May 2005, after which prices rose again?

Its easy to get confused by looking too closely at monthly figures, the housing cycle is like the tide while monthly figures are just waves, if you take a longer term view the future direction of the market is crystal clear.

Signal_NationalQ405.gif House Prices 40% above long term trend

post-1619-1139908772.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its easy to get confused by looking too closely at monthly figures, the housing cycle is like the tide while monthly figures are just waves, if you take a longer term view the future direction of the market is crystal clear.

Signal_NationalQ405.gif House Prices 40% above long term trend

Riser

why do i have to scroll right to read your posts.

does anyone else have this problem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser

Riser

why do i have to scroll right to read your posts.

does anyone else have this problem.

Too many graphs at the bottom is that better?

I have removed the Dollar index as I was expecting it to tank, after todays corrupt CPI figures I spect we will see Sterlin tank first :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its easy to get confused by looking too closely at monthly figures, the housing cycle is like the tide while monthly figures are just waves, if you take a longer term view the future direction of the market is crystal clear.

Signal_NationalQ405.gif House Prices 40% above long term trend

Time to sell up and rent I think. I need some extra space anyway.

Thank's for the graph.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser

There is an error on the graph. The "difference above trend price" figure is 10k too high.

Just checked and the chart and figures I quoted from Nationwide are correct:

2005 Q4

House Price £158,745

Trend in House Price £112,519

Prices are 41% above the long term trend !

Check for yourself:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/...r_inflation.xls

Edited by Riser

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit confused by this...

Surely 'the trend' is just an average, so it will go up or down depening on what the actual prices are doing?

There is no reason for actual prices to 'head towards' the trend line.

If prices are steady or rise for the next 10 years, the trend line will just rise with it accordingly, will it not?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser

Bit confused by this...

Surely 'the trend' is just an average, so it will go up or down depening on what the actual prices are doing?

There is no reason for actual prices to 'head towards' the trend line.

If prices are steady or rise for the next 10 years, the trend line will just rise with it accordingly, will it not?

"If prices are steady or rise for the next 10 years" :lol::lol::lol:

House prices are a cyclical moving above and below a long term trend representing around 2.4% above inflation per year. The cycle won't just stop because Brown wants it to, he can delay the correction for a year or so by continuing to reduce interest rates as he has been doing but sooner or later the market will correct around the long term trend. The longer he delays the correction, the faster and deeper it will be.

Real House Prices

Source: Nationwide Building Society

Base : 2005 Q4

Trend from 1975 Q1 to present

Trend = c2.4% per annum

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes but my point is that it looks to me that it's house prices that dictate the trend, not the other way around.

Prices are not going to drop to 'meet' or align with the trend, rather the trend will move and change as governed by what prices are doing, unless I''m very much mistaken.

Also, the overall trend (long term) seems to be upwards regardless! ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.