dances with sheeple Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 20, 2021 Author Share Posted September 20, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Timm said: Evan Davis just now on R4. Used the words "Credit Crunch". That would be a shame, the bloke I know who's just bought the house near us that didn't sell for 5 years for £200,000 less than he's just paid will probably be upset if the market collapses the day after he moves in, he wont even get a chance to live in delusion for a few years before realizing how ****ed he is/ Just off to tell him.... Edited September 20, 2021 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 On 19/09/2021 at 14:27, Kosmin said: No it's not. It's Northern Rock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul77 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Nothing to see here, Papa Jerome will announce a few extra trillions on Wednesday. Problem solved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 On 18/09/2021 at 16:22, Si1 said: They also have Western creditors to whom the CCP will probably not feel very generous. I told my mate not invest in the China REIT. Well at least he won't have to pay care home fees! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Timm said: No it's not. It's Northern Rock. Where's Gord when you need him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: That would be a shame, the bloke I know who's just bought the house near us that didn't sell for 5 years for £200,000 less than he's just paid will probably be upset if the market collapses the day after he moves in, he wont even get a chance to live in delusion for a few years before realizing how ****ed he is/ Just off to tell him.... Well he may be propped up by a Sterling collapse. Keep a few Yuan in the drawer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cy23 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 4 hours ago, tep1 said: Rumours adrift goldman are praying for a bailout Is that from a Bloomberg terminal?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 (edited) Edited September 20, 2021 by msi image format Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 5 hours ago, tep1 said: Rumours adrift goldman are praying for a bailout Is that saying that the 19 institutions listed here own about 170B USD of bonds, from a company currently in debt of 300B ??? 😨 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 40 minutes ago, Freki said: Is that saying that the 19 institutions listed here own about 170B USD of bonds, from a company currently in debt of 300B ??? 😨 I don't think so...$300bn is the amount of unpaid bills they have, which is not the same as the total amount of corporate bonds they have issued. And this table seems to be just for a bond that matures in 2023, which may not be all of their corporate bonds. And that top holding for BlackRock of 43,376 somethings says "% Out" 4.38 - is that saying this is 4.38% of the total? I don't know what the table is, but it seems unlikely to be what you stated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 China’s Evergrande crisis shakes international markets https://twitter.com/i/events/1440092360126259206 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 (edited) https://www.ft.com/content/0b03d4de-1662-4d30-bcfd-c9bae24fa9cc Evergrande used retail financial investments to plug funding gaps Edited September 21, 2021 by highcontrast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Barclays are pretty chilled about it. https://www.ft.com/content/d7936349-9362-4e34-8905-83fcd6aaf003 Quote A prospective Evergrande default is still a serious issue. But, we think, the effects are primarily on growth, and unlikely to be exacerbated by a financial crisis. This is a challenging moment for Chinese authorities but to our mind it is far from being China’s Lehman moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, Huggy said: Barclays are pretty chilled about it. https://www.ft.com/content/d7936349-9362-4e34-8905-83fcd6aaf003 Where's that Iraqi general meme? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, highcontrast said: Where's that Iraqi general meme? Yeah. They would wouldn't they. I'm pretty sure the credit crunch was played down right until the day the queues formed outside Northern Rock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tep1 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Si1 said: Yeah. They would wouldn't they. I'm pretty sure the credit crunch was played down right until the day the queues formed outside Northern Rock Exactly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Interesting to see how this plays out, we have alot of headwinds now, increasing prices are one example. Meanwhile Evergrande fails which on its own does not sound like something the Chinese cant manage. But if we start to see anything like a change in sentiment, maybe due to people realising they have less money due to inflation, then we are in for a bumpy ride. I have said it before that there is a danger of inflation turing to deflation where people. stop spending. There is no room to cut rates so the central banks will literally have to send money to peoples bank accounts to stop a total collapse. Then what, back to inflation again. You see there are no bullets left, all gone, spent on empty promises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Si1 said: Yeah. They would wouldn't they. I'm pretty sure the credit crunch was played down right until the day the queues formed outside Northern Rock Right, but you would not expect anything else from this bunch. In 2008 people believed the house that was 200k a year earlier was now worth £350 and in three years it would be a million. Quick quick, buy something before you are renting for the rest of your life and hating the fact that your landlord is diddling your wife. Edited September 21, 2021 by satsuma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morty Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Been watching sepentza on YouTube for years, reminded me of our market. I wonder will the fatcats get big fat pensions and nice retirements, will be interesting to see how China’s reaction differs to ours. This whole thing right now of people buying property for safety when the writing is on the wall, absolute madness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, satsuma said: Interesting to see how this plays out, we have alot of headwinds now, increasing prices are one example. Meanwhile Evergrande fails which on its own does not sound like something the Chinese cant manage. But if we start to see anything like a change in sentiment, maybe due to people realising they have less money due to inflation, then we are in for a bumpy ride. I have said it before that there is a danger of inflation turing to deflation where people. stop spending. There is no room to cut rates so the central banks will literally have to send money to peoples bank accounts to stop a total collapse. Then what, back to inflation again. You see there are no bullets left, all gone, spent on empty promises. Slightly off topic but worst case (or temporary bad case) scenario what are the best hedges here? Still gold? Crypto seems to be less of an inflation hedge than we thought? Or maybe it's just a pullback? What about shorting? What are the best shorts in this scenario? I'm very tempted to short the UK builders i.e. https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/b/barratt-developments-plc-ordinary-10p Though that's partly driven by the fact I think they're scumbags in the same way landlords are. Edited September 21, 2021 by highcontrast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, highcontrast said: Crypto seems to be less of an inflation hedge than we thought? Or maybe it's just a pullback? What about shorting? What are the best shorts in this scenario? Crypto should be a good inflation hedge in the long run, but remember that it is VERY volatile in the short run, so can easily swing up and down: 40-80% falls are not unusual in Bitcoin history. You wouldn't expect it to just neatly tick up in line with inflation. However, at least with Crypto the worst you can do is lose all your money. If you start shorting stuff you can become bankrupt in the blink of an eye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, highcontrast said: Slightly off topic but worst case (or temporary bad case) scenario what are the best hedges here? Still gold? Crypto seems to be less of an inflation hedge than we thought? Or maybe it's just a pullback? What about shorting? What are the best shorts in this scenario? I'm very tempted to short the UK builders i.e. https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/b/barratt-developments-plc-ordinary-10p Though that's partly driven by the fact I think they're scumbags in the same way landlords are. I still think gold is a good thing to hold, generally it has held its value. Art and cars, crypto and shares could all tank bigtime but better than keeping the money in cash. I think some shares in big Pharma would be a sound place to park your money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wighty Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 24 minutes ago, satsuma said: Right, but you would not expect anything else from this bunch. In 2008 people believed the house that was 200k a year earlier was now worth £350 and in three years it would be a million. Quick quick, buy something before you are renting for the rest of your life and hating the fact that your landlord is diddling your wife. and they were possibly right, except it was 2021 not 2011 when the £350k house approached £1million, give or take a few quid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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