Bear food thread

[msi]

55 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

What - learn some self defence and don’t make yourself look vulnerable because what exactly? Presumably you think large scale civil unrest is incoming relating to the ever illusive crash? 

Yawn. Do I really need to spoon feed your millennial brain?   Economic downturns correlate to higher levels of muggings, burglary, robbery etc.  Eminently sensible to be less vulnerable, hardly catering for 'large scale civil unrest' - that only happens when your generation can't find the wifi password or someone uses the wrong prononun

[highcontrast]

1 hour ago, Huggy said:

I want to hear screaming.

I want to see people crying as they hand back their keys.

But seriously, all these bearish posts today are going to make the bulls/BTL scum feel uneasy! Expect a (very predictable) rebuttal.

[Twenty Something]

1 hour ago, msi said:

Yawn. Do I really need to spoon feed your millennial brain?   Economic downturns correlate to higher levels of muggings, burglary, robbery etc.  Eminently sensible to be less vulnerable, hardly catering for 'large scale civil unrest' - that only happens when your generation can't find the wifi password or someone uses the wrong prononun

So it does relate to a prophecy of an economic downturn and thugs roaming the streets. Wake me up when it happens and I need to dust off my sieve and martial arts skills. Best form of self defence when confronted with a knife and an angry teenager? Hand over your phone and wallet and buy a new one. 
 

As for the rest of it, you are clearly part of the chuck insult = win argument brigade hey? I’ve certainly put plenty of posts up in the past explaining how I’ve been on this site longer than most, so if I joined as a twenty-something in 2005, and it’s now 2021, it gives you a bit of a conundrum as to whether you need to insult millennials, or if indeed you should lend your wit to Gen X? Maybe add something for Gen X to cover all bases and really drum home your intellectual superiority? 

Edited August 24, 2021 by Twenty Something

[msi]

6 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

So it does relate to a prophecy of an economic downturn and thugs roaming the streets. Wake me up when it happens and I need to dust off my sieve and martial arts skills. Best form of self defence when confronted with a knife and an angry teenager? Hand over your phone and wallet and buy a new one. 

 

Again with the pathetic straw man, reducto absurdum.  I despair at the level of intellectual analysis - but then again this is an internet forum, you are only one level above the 'your mum' jokes.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Tweet your reply....so I did....

 

please, share your wisdom with them

[Twenty Something]

23 minutes ago, msi said:

Again with the pathetic straw man, reducto absurdum.  I despair at the level of intellectual analysis - but then again this is an internet forum, you are only one level above the 'your mum' jokes.

[sammersmith]

18 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

I've been saying this both on here and to anyone who would listen to me since Covid started. 

Quote

Now, everybody who wanted to move for homeworking or lifestyle changes has done so.

This ^

There will come a point when this new 'WFH paradigm-shift race-for-space' will be exhausted, and the people willing and able to move to the countryside would have done so. The stamp duty holiday brought this date forward and created a hard stop. It's also interesting that it coincided with getting little darlings enrolled in the local school before the start of term. 

I really can't see this continuing after September. Why would people not have bought/sold in the stamp duty window when they had the chance and demand was booming?  

[wighty]

2 hours ago, msi said:

Eminently

 

[Marshall211]

Was the housing market boom 'built on sand'? Stamp duty cliff edge saw property purchases plunge 63% last month from an all-time high in June

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9921859/Property-transactions-plummeted-63-July-stamp-duty-holiday-pulled.html

 

[Dweller]

8 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

I've been saying this both on here and to anyone who would listen to me since Covid started. 

This ^

There will come a point when this new 'WFH paradigm-shift race-for-space' will be exhausted, and the people willing and able to move to the countryside would have done so. The stamp duty holiday brought this date forward and created a hard stop. It's also interesting that it coincided with getting little darlings enrolled in the local school before the start of term. 

I really can't see this continuing after September. Why would people not have bought/sold in the stamp duty window when they had the chance and demand was booming?  

Do you think there will still be a backlog of people who wanted to move but couldn't  afford or didn't want to  engage in bidding wars who will continue to feed the market to some degree now that the madness of the SD surge is ending? I really don't understand markets. I don't understand how the agent said to us in 2019 that since 2016 (Brexit ) anything over £230,000 had been hard to sell yet here we are now with those £230,000 properties now being sold in days  for £280,000 + ! I can see though that a 60% + surge in sales with a 50% decline in properties coming on the market is going to skew things somewhat but what I can't see is how the properties that have gone from £220,000 to £270,000 + now start to come down.  That would surely take a whole lot more properties than buyers and interest rates starting to inch but as I say I have no idea why markets get depressed as the market apparently was from 2016 to March 2020 . 

[sammersmith]

3 minutes ago, Dweller said:

Do you think there will still be a backlog of people who wanted to move but couldn't  afford or didn't want to  engage in bidding wars who will continue to feed the market to some degree now that the madness of the SD surge is ending?

I think only people on here refused to engage in bidding wars. Everyone else I saw (friends/colleagues/MSEmumsnetters) thought it was nuts but felt compelled to jump in anyway. Typical mania mentality. Even FTBers were rushing to make stamp duty 'savings' - even though (for sub-£300K houses) it made no difference to them. 

The problem is that now future sellers have seen what bubble prices are possible and they will likely try and wait it out until they get the same or better. It might take a while until they're forced by either rate increases, repo, divorce, or death.

Now that the holiday is over i'm actively looking but, for the reasons above, I'm only seriously considering probates and repos - something where there's a clear motivation to sell. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

43 minutes ago, Marshall211 said:

Was the housing market boom 'built on sand'? Stamp duty cliff edge saw property purchases plunge 63% last month from an all-time high in June

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9921859/Property-transactions-plummeted-63-July-stamp-duty-holiday-pulled.html

 

Built on the excrement from a £2500 dog more like.

Edited August 24, 2021 by TheCountOfNowhere

[tep1]

Property sales in July plummeted by 61% vs June, after the stamp duty holiday was tapered, according to HMRCgovuk 👇

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 minutes ago, tep1 said:

Property sales in July plummeted by 61% vs June, after the stamp duty holiday was tapered, according to HMRCgovuk 👇

They have a long drop to come....look at the last stamp duty cut to see how low it will go.

EAs were predicting a bumper year. Im predicting a bumper year for EAs going out of business.

Who in their right mind keeps EAs going during a global pandemic....the property owning tories do.

 

I will never forgive them for that alone.

[Confusion of VIs]

7 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Try....Hold in escape and refresh your browser, or refresh your browser and hit escape as the page starts to load.

Or just disable JavaScript for the telegraph site 

[Dweller]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

They have a long drop to come....look at the last stamp duty cut to see how low it will go.

EAs were predicting a bumper year. Im predicting a bumper year for EAs going out of business.

Who in their right mind keeps EAs going during a global pandemic....the property owning tories do.

 

I will never forgive them for that alone.

What happened after the last stamp duty cut? 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

32 minutes ago, Dweller said:

What happened after the last stamp duty cut? 

 

look at 2016.  dont think it was a cut, maybe it was increasing, cant quite remember, wasn't paying so much attention to things then. 

 

That's chicken feed compared to the madness we have now.

 

And this is just as furlough ends, stamp duty cut ends, forebearance has ended, global slow down, inflation.

They have created one almighty ****ing mess.

 

Edited August 24, 2021 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/stamp-duty-changes-april-1-2016-everything-you-need-to-know-a100366.html

 

New legislation is adding an extra three per cent to the stamp duty bills of those buying a second property from April 1, 2016.

In London, where asking prices continue to soar, the additional hikes will hit those looking to buy a second home hardest. For example, the stamp duty payable on a property worth £350,000 will rise from £7,500 to £18,000.

[Dweller]

36 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

look at 2016.  dont think it was a cut, maybe it was increasing, cant quite remember, wasn't paying so much attention to things then. 

 

That's chicken feed compared to the madness we have now.

 

And this is just as furlough ends, stamp duty cut ends, forebearance has ended, global slow down, inflation.

They have created one almighty ****ing mess.

 

Ah thanks for that and the explanation about what happened in April 2016.  It is all so difficult to get a handle on and I know this has implications in oh so many ways for so many people but on a personal level I am just pulling my hair out trying to understand these things having got it SO wrong selling in October 2020 and losing the property we were going to buy and being stranded in a caravan with the property we were looking at having gone up £40,000 -  £60,000!  So in my usual completely confused fashion I am trying to understand if housing stock was down 50% but property sales were up 63% in June then why was the housing stock down or weren't those buying also  selling? What am I missing here? So September could see more drops in buyers but that will mean more drops in properties yes and what will  that mean ? I am thinking about buying a flat (without a garden) which at my age  I REALLY don't want to do especially if things are likely to come down again any time soon, but I assume whilst it is easy for prices to go up and up and up based on EAs just looking at what is for sale then putting properties on  to match, the journey down is very much slower because EA just look at what prices properties are on for and currently they are still selling   within a week. Just REALLY don't want to get this wrong again having got this so horribly  wrong the past year and now looking like I am going to end up living in a flat which is NOT what I sold for . I know I am lucky to be able to buy anything (when plenty can't even afford to rent) but it has been a tough year with sooo much regret  for being sooo stupid selling before I bought but who could have predicted  £40,000 - £60,000 house price increases on £220,000 properties! 

[moonriver]

9 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Try....Hold in escape and refresh your browser, or refresh your browser and hit escape as the page starts to load.

Many thanks for that hint.

[tep1]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/five-charts-predict-next-house-price-crash/

[Patfig]

29 minutes ago, tep1 said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/five-charts-predict-next-house-price-crash/

2% whoopeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[GregBowman]

23 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Try....Hold in escape and refresh your browser, or refresh your browser and hit escape as the page starts to load.

That worked LOL gave me an inordinate amount of pleasure thanks !!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

That worked LOL gave me an inordinate amount of pleasure thanks !!

Yeah, I always chuckle to myself if I use it. 

Some idiots are paying those for the crap they churn out

[Fromage Frais]

21 hours ago, simon2 said:

Do they say how demand is actually quantified? 

The biggest London postcode district by population I am aware of is CR0 and I think this captures some of the broader London trends, flats taken the biggest hits, whereas houses are resilient.

Having looked at other London postcodes it also reflects that volumes have gone after the stamp duty holiday. Rightmove have not updated this number for May, but looking at houseprices it appears this number is 46... which means that sales of properties now are even lower than last year when everyone was locked down. Too early for June but up to the 18th there are 20 sales, so it looks like another low number.

Some of those sales last year may have had their initial agreement in 'regular' times but it seems strange for transactions to be this low.

The number of sales prior to the stamp duty holiday were impressive, as these would have come from a lower inventory of properties. AFAIK the listings on Rightmove have not recovered above c.70% of pre-pandemic numbers at any time.

So the BBC et al are right in one sense that demand has risen; but I feel that was driven by a low number of properties. Maybe that will normalise, or maybe it wont. Another stamp duty holiday maybe?

Whilst stamp duty holidays may bring forward demand and help sell listed inventory, I cannot see how it helps bring stock to market.  The prices are already nuts if you want to sell you will sell in this market so imho the next tax change either has to push or pull sellers rather than buyers.