Taliban gains give investors cause for concern beyond Afghanistan

[rollover]

The Taliban’s rapid advance towards Kabul is not only causing concern about Afghanistan’s future but also about the impact on other countries in the region and their economies.

The immediate focus for financial markets and investors is Pakistan to the east. Pakistan has a large public debt, a sizeable equity market and is dependent on a $6bn IMF programme. The prospect of years of violence and waves of refugees will add pressure to its fiscal repair plans.

“It is a very troubling situation and unfortunately has set the region back many years,” said Shamaila Khan, head of emerging market debt at AllianceBernstein.

Aljazeera

[PeanutButter]

Wait until they see the price of heroin *shoot up* 

[rollover]

2 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Wait until they see the price of heroin *shoot up* 

After initial declain the production of opium was pretty much growing in Afghanistan.

[rollover]

What has the conflict cost the US and its allies?

Who will be losing big money there now?

[FallingAwake]

20 Years Of War In Afghanistan Has Cost US Taxpayers Over $2.2 Trillion
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/20-years-war-afghanistan-has-cost-us-taxpayers-over-22-trillion

"From its start in 2001 through April 2021, the war in Afghanistan has cost U.S. taxpayers approximately $2.261 trillion, according to estimates earlier this year from the Costs of War Project at Brown University," Fox News reviews of the disturbingly high figures. All that as the US public now sits back and witnesses US-trained Afghan forces retreat "without a bullet being fired".

All courtesy of the sense of emergency stoked by the 9/11 crisis. The US were in Afghanistan basically within the month.

Edited August 14, 2021 by FallingAwake

[reddog]

It's quite incredible.

 

To me it just highlights the ability (or lack of) of western countries to actually do anything (although invading Afghanistan is a bit like Hitler and Napoleon found invading Russia, so long term success was unlikely).

 

It is all the soldiers that spent the last 20 years there that I feel sorry for.  Must be pretty depressing to realise it was all for nothing.  Personally it is this like this that make me want the smallest possible government.

[msi]

28 minutes ago, reddog said:

It's quite incredible.

 

To me it just highlights the ability (or lack of) of western countries to actually do anything (although invading Afghanistan is a bit like Hitler and Napoleon found invading Russia, so long term success was unlikely).

 

It is all the soldiers that spent the last 20 years there that I feel sorry for.  Must be pretty depressing to realise it was all for nothing.  Personally it is this like this that make me want the smallest possible government.

+1  Always surprises me that the usual loons that bellow about small Government always look to spend even more on the military.

[coypondboy]

Will be interesting to see what happens if Taliban stupid enough to target the airbase over the coming days with that new equipment they have got.  Would be ironic to see US and god forbid UK planes shot down with their own surface to air missile launchers.  I think could be a big retaliation and maybe another war if this happened as Biden would be under extreme pressure if say a few planes shot down with hundreds of civilian lives lost.  Will be all live on tv if it happens like it was in Vietnam were the communists alloed them to escape.  Would be tragic if something like this happens with the 20th anniversary of 9/11 not far away but the ISIS/Alqueda element of the Taliban will be itching to perfom another mass killing atrocity and have the weapons and are close enough to kabul airport to do it.

[reddog]

12 minutes ago, coypondboy said:

Will be all live on tv if it happens like it was in Vietnam were the communists alloed them to escape.  Would be tragic if something like this happens with the 20th anniversary of 9/11 not far away but the ISIS/Alqueda element of the Taliban will be itching to perfom another mass killing atrocity and have the weapons and are close enough to kabul airport to do it.

Whatever happens, it ain't going to be a good look.  It was meant to be get out 20 years after 9/11 to show mission accomplished.

 

Now 9/11 20th anniversary will be a "last chopper out of Saigon" moment.

 

I was 25 when 9/11 happened, kind of interesting to note it has overshadowed everything we have done in the last 20 years, you could even trace unrelenting house price rises and the GFC to 9/11.  It's almost as if the terrorists won.

Edited August 14, 2021 by reddog

[reddog]

15 minutes ago, coypondboy said:

Will be interesting to see what happens if Taliban stupid enough to target the airbase over the coming days with that new equipment they have got.  Would be ironic to see US and god forbid UK planes shot down with their own surface to air missile launchers.  I think could be a big retaliation and maybe another war if this happened as Biden would be under extreme pressure if say a few planes shot down with hundreds of civilian lives lost.  Will be all live on tv if it happens like it was in Vietnam were the communists alloed them to escape.  Would be tragic if something like this happens with the 20th anniversary of 9/11 not far away but the ISIS/Alqueda element of the Taliban will be itching to perfom another mass killing atrocity and have the weapons and are close enough to kabul airport to do it.

Don't want to get too ********, but ISIS and the Taliban are actually enemies, believe it or not, America has at times supported the Taliban in this fight: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban–ISIL_conflict_in_Afghanistan

[coypondboy]

I think Al QUEDA aren't and that is the big danger as Taliban and them want to introude strict shariah law and would love the publicity of a major atrocity on the eve of 9/11, just pray nothing happens and are boys and girls get everyone out safely so sad for the women especially who are left behind just hope we can offer some of them a route to the UK.

[househunter123]

I thought this thread would be about those lot somehow helping to normalise our house prices in this country!

[coypondboy]

2 hours ago, househunter123 said:

I thought this thread would be about those lot somehow helping to normalise our house prices in this country!

when we invite the millions of refugees to come over by boat then it will affect rents and house prices in uk as more houses will be needed and just think what could happen when global warming affects our cousins in the commonwealth all will head for our shores where they have relatives many illegally. 

[rollover]

7 hours ago, househunter123 said:

I thought this thread would be about those lot somehow helping to normalise our house prices in this country!

My original post was about investors concerns gains or losses; how much 20 years in afghanistan cost the US, UK and other allies (U.S. taxpayers approximately $2.261); how much does it cost the UK?; who became rich and can afford palace not just ordinary house?; ... etc

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

7 hours ago, househunter123 said:

I thought this thread would be about those lot somehow helping to normalise our house prices in this country!

A Taliban takeover is bad for house prices, as is strict Sharia (Checkout Bradford).

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/2033633.amp/

https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/19/inside-three-bedroom-house-in-bradford-that-might-be-uks-cheapest-for-sale-14110251/amp/

 

[rollover]

57 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

A Taliban takeover is bad for house prices, as is strict Sharia (Checkout Bradford).

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/2033633.amp/

https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/19/inside-three-bedroom-house-in-bradford-that-might-be-uks-cheapest-for-sale-14110251/amp/

 

On the other side there will be handful mega wealthy now looking to park money in London and hunting for trophy houses.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

10 hours ago, reddog said:

Whatever happens, it ain't going to be a good look.  It was meant to be get out 20 years after 9/11 to show mission accomplished.

 

Now 9/11 20th anniversary will be a "last chopper out of Saigon" moment.

 

I was 25 when 9/11 happened, kind of interesting to note it has overshadowed everything we have done in the last 20 years, you could even trace unrelenting house price rises and the GFC to 9/11.  It's almost as if the terrorists won.

 

Indeed, GFC was largely put down to post 911 financial measures and certainly the echoes from GFC continue.

[reddog]

30 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

Indeed, GFC was largely put down to post 911 financial measures and certainly the echoes from GFC continue.

Yeah, just depressing to think the last 20 years has been overshadowed by this.  Hard to believe that people (for example at the start of Covid) take Tony Blair seriously, most of the problems stated under his leadership.

[Drat]

What happened to the Afghan army and air force? From the news it seems there has been very little fighting, did they not have any fight in them? Was it poor leadership from the Afghan government? Have they switched sides, or just run and hidden?

[shlomo]

Afghanistan has lots of minerals and resources, Qatar and Glencore have been sniffing about trying to do deals, it also allows Uzbekistan and Central Asia which has phenomenal resources a route to the sea through Gwador, Russia wants a sea route for its south.

So it’s a win win for everyone, (not everyone)

PS The taliban were pro US until 9/11

[byron78]

15 hours ago, rollover said:

After initial declain the production of opium was pretty much growing in Afghanistan.

Yep. About the only thing war in Afghanistan gave anyone was cheap heroin. Odd foreign policy really....

[shlomo]

7 minutes ago, Drat said:

What happened to the Afghan army and air force? From the news it seems there has been very little fighting, did they not have any fight in them? Was it poor leadership from the Afghan government? Have they switched sides, or just run and hidden?

Do not forget Pakistan and Russia and China and Iran are pro Taliban

[reddog]

6 minutes ago, Drat said:

What happened to the Afghan army and air force? From the news it seems there has been very little fighting, did they not have any fight in them? Was it poor leadership from the Afghan government? Have they switched sides, or just run and hidden?

I heard that one problem is that individuals in the army are posted to areas that are not their homeland/home state.  They therefore see no point in fighting to defend that area.  Obviously in employment is a problem in Afghanistan, so obviously a lot were just in the army for the money.

 

This again shows that Western countries do not understand that people in different parts of the world have a totally different mindset to "western" countries.

[PeanutButter]

14 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Yep. About the only thing war in Afghanistan gave anyone was cheap heroin. Odd foreign policy really....

Taliban burns opium farms. Prices of heroin will go up now. 

Plus I made a pun and no one acknowledged it. 😭

[rollover]

Ghost soldiers emblematic of a problem that has plagued Afghanistan's security for decades

The US is concerned because, over the years, over $88 billion dollars have been appropriated to support Afghanistan’s security sector.

One of the many factors is the presence of ghost soldiers. Ghost soldiers are those that are listed on paper as part of the forces but don’t exist in real life. The US’s Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has expressed concern over corruption leading to the presence of ghost soldiers and police personnel.

In a quarterly report from July 30, 2020, SIGAR quoted an Afghan government assessment that in Kandahar, Zabul, Helmand and Uruzgan provinces, 50% to 70% of police posts are filled by ghost personnel. The lack of accurate figures further raises questions over the strength of the Afghan forces.

“SIGAR has expressed serious concerns about the corrosive effects of corruption within the ANDSF (including the existence of ghost soldiers and police). This is not the first SIGAR report to have mentioned the concept of ghost personnel. Several reports in the past have explained the concept and the corruption behind it.

deccanherald