Will furlough end on Sept 30th ?

[Fromage Frais]

7 hours ago, GregBowman said:

I am pretty neutral on the whole Brexit thing with my old man being Lithuanian. But so far this isn't panning out as disastrous as it was portrayed. There is upward pressure on wages at all levels (which I see as good and I have been an employer for thirty years )and more UK citizens seem to be taking up jobs. Investment is high have you seen the amount of money coming into the film industry not stupid loss making British films but infrastructure ? Hundreds of millions being spent at Elstree and Pinewood and brand new facilities announced for Ashford and now Cheshunt/Broxbourne. They are talking about £700 million for that site alone. Film studios create thousands of jobs from security guards to drivers and of course catering.

Even the shortage of HGV drivers is overplayed. The  DVLA are sitting on 30000 driver renewals, the operators used cheap EU labour to drive rates down so combine these two and you have a shortage. There is evidence though of rates going up and the renewals coming through.

This

Brexit is and was never going to be good for my business short term but long term Labour has lost its power balance  to capital.

A situation where credit was unlimited and labour was also was always going to lead to the situation we find ourselves in now = falling living standards and that would impact my business long term.

My issue at the moment is not even the money its the unprofessionalism of people who submit applications, agree to interview and then do not turn up there are a lot of time wasters out there.

I can respect professional people who say nope sorry I will do an excellent job but I need x and at this time they will get it and deserve it.

Well into August now and it will be interesting to see if the employment market softens by the end of the season like I think it will the weather has been crap, lots of places closed and its not been an amazing year aside from accommodation.  I saw in Norwich one of the largest pubs just decide to close for two months till it blows over (presumably staff on furlough).   

The problems for hospitality are about to ratchet up

Pings/Staff Issues > Bad weather > furlough ending > VAT rising 5 to 12.5% September > March Landlord can evict > April Vat returns to 20% > Business rates return to full pre covid levels.

So if you are about to go bust and work in the UK hospitality sector when are you going to throw in the towel?

October imho why bother struggle through Christmas when you are knackered after making what you can and being short staffed over the summer season.

Either that or in March when the landlord asks for the rent good idea you will most likely be able to find another unit maybe for less rent.

Either way Furlough should have ended on freedom day (for Hospitality and open sectors) businesses would have hired a lot more staff and kept open fully.  IMHO Furlough has possibly reduced the number of vacancies as some businesses have chosen to close rather than struggle through.

 

[Fromage Frais]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

Depends on the job, the average Brit debt muncher might struggle to fill the shoes of an EE worker who speaks two or three languages and is highly educated? They most certainly were not all tramping about in fields picking spring onions.

I have no doubt they can do it the majority of my staff are locals and they are really good.  I am not going to lie though there is a lot of folk who can but just do not want a job (job centre requirement or something?).

If for example you are a 35/40 year old chef with some experience you should be making money right now moving jobs and getting 20% + and the hours you like, if you dont like doing that fair enough but the number of time wasters I get .... they dont even check to see if they have put the CV in the same place they ghosted interviews with before.

These people are parents and they just shock me every time not even a call to say no thanks not coming burning bridges unnecessarily.  You get the same CV a few weeks later and they still have not got a job.... during one of the biggest shortages and wage inflations in recent memory.

 

 

 

[GregBowman]

3 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

This

Brexit is and was never going to be good for my business short term but long term Labour has lost its power balance  to capital.

A situation where credit was unlimited and labour was also was always going to lead to the situation we find ourselves in now = falling living standards and that would impact my business long term.

My issue at the moment is not even the money its the unprofessionalism of people who submit applications, agree to interview and then do not turn up there are a lot of time wasters out there.

I can respect professional people who say nope sorry I will do an excellent job but I need x and at this time they will get it and deserve it.

Well into August now and it will be interesting to see if the employment market softens by the end of the season like I think it will the weather has been crap, lots of places closed and its not been an amazing year aside from accommodation.  I saw in Norwich one of the largest pubs just decide to close for two months till it blows over (presumably staff on furlough).   

The problems for hospitality are about to ratchet up

Pings/Staff Issues > Bad weather > furlough ending > VAT rising 5 to 12.5% September > March Landlord can evict > April Vat returns to 20% > Business rates return to full pre covid levels.

So if you are about to go bust and work in the UK hospitality sector when are you going to throw in the towel?

October imho why bother struggle through Christmas when you are knackered after making what you can and being short staffed over the summer season.

Either that or in March when the landlord asks for the rent good idea you will most likely be able to find another unit maybe for less rent.

Either way Furlough should have ended on freedom day (for Hospitality and open sectors) businesses would have hired a lot more staff and kept open fully.  IMHO Furlough has possibly reduced the number of vacancies as some businesses have chosen to close rather than struggle through.

 

Great post and you lay out the hospitality case from the front line thanks. My experience is in two other sectors IT and creative media (film) which have a different workforce the former still shortage of good people, the latter an industry people want to be in. I would be surprised if many on furlough in IT, in creative media it’s being used to subsidise long breaks to use up holiday entitlement.

I think the other factor certainly where I am is that people’s lifestyles have changed. My living standards haven’t fallen rather like you as a businessman I keep them on an even keel aiming for an upward trend  

My wife and I would pop into a pub say three times a week spend from £30 to £60 depending on whether we ate there. As late fifties we were quite typical with kids grown up etc. Have no inclination to do that anymore, will play golf together ( my wife has taken it up after seeing how nice the environment is walking around it in lockdown ) then have a couple of much cheaper drinks in the club bar. Which is actually a much better environment than most pubs since it is effectively a members club. The club is very modern ( decor and thinking no Captains parking spaces and all that bull and welcomes female members and families ) and hosts weddings so food is good as well. In fact the ladies section is flying my wife is playing 9 holes tomorrow  ( a new thing now in most clubs to encourage younger time strapped members ) and they will all be having supper after - previously that would of occurred in a pub.

That’s my lifestyle change but there are also friends who have rejoined tennis clubs after 20 years or simply have got used to that lockdown evening walk and have a bottle of wine at home after with a takeaway or cook a nice hello fresh or Gousto meal 

 

[GregBowman]

11 hours ago, zugzwang said:

 

UK taxpayers footing the bill, again?

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/dec/22/star-wars-the-force-awakens-george-osborne-credits-tax-relief-bfi-film

The prominent credit that George Osborne and Ed Vaizey received in the final roll of Star Wars: The Force Awakens has turned into something of an embarrassment for the government – not only because of the government’s persistent attempts to associate itself with the record-breaking Hollywood blockbuster – which led to Osborne getting booed at the premiere for the film in London’s Leicester Square – but also because of large-scale reimbursements the film is expected to receive from HMRC under the government’s film tax-relief scheme.

Osborne and Vaizey appear to have been given the credit due to the support given to the production of The Force Awakens right from its earliest stages as the government sought to ensure the film would be shot in the UK, particularly in the matter of the generous tax-relief scheme the UK has operated since 2007, but whose conditions were significantly relaxed by Osborne in 2014.

Did I mention a specific film or did I say infrastructure as in studio construction ? The two are completely different and even if they get some relief like a car factory the benefits usually outweigh the reliefs. Please keep up at the back there is a good chap.

[zugzwang]

2 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Did I mention a specific film or did I say infrastructure as in studio construction ? The two are completely different and even if they get some relief like a car factory the benefits usually outweigh the reliefs. Please keep up at the back there is a good chap.

The benefits usually outweight the reliefs? What grounds are there for making that argument? Osborne's feting of Hollywood looked like another extravagant vanity project to me. Like HS2, the Garden Bridge or the London Olympics.

[Wayward]

Kwasi Kwarteng vows to put free market approach at heart of UK’s post-Covid recovery

The UK Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has vowed to put a free market approach at the heart of the post-Covid recovery, as the economy is weaned off the massive state support it received during the pandemic.
 

Become an FT subscriber to read | Financial Times

It is shameless...free market?... what like the housing market?  Free markets unless it suits them to distort markets to enrich themselves and selected privileged cohorts.

 

[GregBowman]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

The benefits usually outweight the reliefs? What grounds are there for making that argument? Osborne's feting of Hollywood looked like another extravagant vanity project to me. Like HS2, the Garden Bridge or the London Olympics.

Your still not with me are you, you are talking about a piece of software I am talking about physical infrastructure.

HS2 by the  way was more about capacity than shiny trains so pretty poorly sold to be fair. The 2012 Olympics isn't the best example either I think most people would consider it a success 

 

[zugzwang]

8 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Your still not with me are you, you are talking about a piece of software I am talking about physical infrastructure.

HS2 by the  way was more about capacity than shiny trains so pretty poorly sold to be fair. The 2012 Olympics isn't the best example either I think most people would consider it a success 

 

 

The estimated cost of HS2 is currently £110bn. What are they fabricating the tracks out of... Moondust?

One can only imagine the stink the billionaire press would be making over it were Labour in power.

[zugzwang]

43 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Kwasi Kwarteng vows to put free market approach at heart of UK’s post-Covid recovery

The UK Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has vowed to put a free market approach at the heart of the post-Covid recovery, as the economy is weaned off the massive state support it received during the pandemic.
 

Become an FT subscriber to read | Financial Times

It is shameless...free market?... what like the housing market?  Free markets unless it suits them to distort markets to enrich themselves and selected privileged cohorts.

 

Farcical.

Public sector net debt in the United Kingdom was GBP 2,218.2 billion at the end of June 2021 or around 99.7 percent of GDP, the highest ratio since the 102.5 percent recorded in March 1961.

[scottbeard]

22 hours ago, Warlord said:

Hmm.. Do you really think they will take the jobs of the eastern Europeans? I'm not convinced though I accept this is a wild card 

Fruit pickers might be a challenge....it's really tough work, people are out of the habit and there are lots of other jobs around at the moment.

But cafe and bar staff, shop workers?  Sure.  Before 2004 almost ALL of these jobs were done by people born in the UK....it's not like we're turning the clock back to the 1890s to suggest that British-born people might work in retail and hospitality.

[Timbuk3]

2 hours ago, Wayward said:

Kwasi Kwarteng vows to put free market approach at heart of UK’s post-Covid recovery

The UK Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has vowed to put a free market approach at the heart of the post-Covid recovery, as the economy is weaned off the massive state support it received during the pandemic.
 

Become an FT subscriber to read | Financial Times

It is shameless...free market?... what like the housing market?  Free markets unless it suits them to distort markets to enrich themselves and selected privileged cohorts.

 

Great, does that mean Help to Buy is going to end, or are the building companies still bribing the Tories with their donations?

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Farcical.

Public sector net debt in the United Kingdom was GBP 2,218.2 billion at the end of June 2021 or around 99.7 percent of GDP, the highest ratio since the 102.5 percent recorded in March 1961.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2019-1-trillion-labour-splurge-to-bankrupt-uk-m0dktnw32

 

Election 2019: £1 trillion Labour splurge ‘to bankrupt UK’

[TheCountOfNowhere]

On 09/08/2021 at 12:56, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

I can't see them ending it but if they do no one seems to be saying what the consequences will be.

 

I was wrong...thank god.

Let's hope I'm wrong about them keeping IRs low, keeping the QE taps on and just buying a house now at any price.  

[Horseradish]

48 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Let's hope I'm wrong about them keeping IRs low, keeping the QE taps on and just buying a house now at any price.  

👍

[wighty]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I was wrong...thank god.

Let's hope I'm wrong about them keeping IRs low, keeping the QE taps on and just buying a house now at any price.  

How many saying are too expensive and are hoping on a significant crash in order to buy?.

If they do buy, will they continue to want prices to fall further or will they be championing HPI?

[Social Justice League]

I can see this winter being grim.  Many people are going to go bankrupt.

[Horseradish]

53 minutes ago, wighty said:

How many saying are too expensive and are hoping on a significant crash in order to buy?.

If they do buy, will they continue to want prices to fall further or will they be championing HPI?

Generally I think that people want house prices to come back into line with long-term trends, from before money was close to free from such low interest rates? That sounds reasonable I think. And I assume that people would be happy with HPI that matched CPI from that point on.

Either way, when interest rates rise, it's going to be a bloodbath.

[dances with sheeple]

2 hours ago, Horseradish said:

Generally I think that people want house prices to come back into line with long-term trends, from before money was close to free from such low interest rates? That sounds reasonable I think. And I assume that people would be happy with HPI that matched CPI from that point on.

Either way, when interest rates rise, it's going to be a bloodbath.

There will be many many p*issed off people when that happens, people who are in their early 30`s  now will only understand low and falling rates, and will have made their debt decisions based on those types of rates, that is frankly terrifying IMO. (especially for them, LOL)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

There will be many many p*issed off people when that happens, people who are in their early 30`s  now will only understand low and falling rates, and will have made their debt decisions based on those types of rates, that is frankly terrifying IMO. (especially for them, LOL)

they'll have made their debt decisions based on their parents unbelievably astute investment strategy of buy a house at any price with any money they can afford, lying if necessary to get more debt.... 

[dances with sheeple]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

they'll have made their debt decisions based on their parents unbelievably astute investment strategy of buy a house at any price with any money they can afford, lying if necessary to get more debt.... 

Maybe, but many will have bought relatively recently if they have bought at all, and that is going to hurt very badly if rates spike, very badly indeed, especially if they bought an executive chicken coop in London with cladding/leasehold or other regulatory issues.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

13 hours ago, wighty said:

How many saying are too expensive and are hoping on a significant crash in order to buy?.

If they do buy, will they continue to want prices to fall further or will they be championing HPI?

Most of the people who bought on here, the genuine posters, after 2008 said they thought they might lose out but due to circumstances wanted to buy but would be happy to see further falls.

They were buying homes, not investments.

[markyh]

On 09/08/2021 at 12:56, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Will furlough end on Sept 30th ? 

 

 

I say Yes, and i'm never wrong. 

[Horseradish]

10 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

and that is going to hurt very badly if rates spike, very badly indeed

Yes, it is. Though there seems to be a rough consensus that the governments are going to run the economy hot with lots of inflation in order to erode the debt. And that's going to mean that those people will also have their debt eroded to some extent.

[zugzwang]

5 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

Yes, it is. Though there seems to be a rough consensus that the governments are going to run the economy hot with lots of inflation in order to erode the debt. And that's going to mean that those people will also have their debt eroded to some extent.

Nope.

£400bn of index linked gilts is why the govt switched from using RPI as the indexing measure to CPIH at the end of last year.

In addition, KPMG estimate that £300bn of private sector defined benefit pension liabilities and £200bn in public sector pension liabilities are linked to CPI.

It's a debt trap. They can't inflate their way out.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, zugzwang said:

Nope.

£400bn of index linked gilts is why the govt switched from using RPI as the indexing measure to CPIH at the end of last year.

In addition, KPMG estimate that £300bn of private sector defined benefit pension liabilities and £200bn in public sector pension liabilities are linked to CPI.

It's a debt trap. They can't inflate their way out.

Where/when does it end, that's all we want to know.