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House Price Crash Forum

Poll - House Price Crash in...?


Crash within.........  

68 members have voted

  1. 1. How Long Till The Crash....

    • 0-3 Months
      2
    • 3-6 Months
      2
    • 6-12 Months
      12
    • 12+ Months
      23
    • No Crash
      29


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Seems to me that even in the media when talking about house prices (whether rises or falls) they only talk about it in nominal terms. Even here, that graph seems nominal.

Said it several times but I really believe the 'crash' will not be fast, and won't be in nominal terms, but inflation adjusted. In a single year something like 5% inflation might not be noticeable, but over 5 years it will be.

Most people are going to be too thick to understand it - which is exactly what the government want. A quick crash would make people angry, but I bet in 2025 you'll get people on the forums saying stuff like 'where's the crash, my house is worth more than what I paid for it'.

Inflation is the thief, but the dumbness of most of the people will allow it to happen.

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15 minutes ago, simon2 said:

Seems to me that even in the media when talking about house prices (whether rises or falls) they only talk about it in nominal terms. Even here, that graph seems nominal.

Said it several times but I really believe the 'crash' will not be fast, and won't be in nominal terms, but inflation adjusted. In a single year something like 5% inflation might not be noticeable, but over 5 years it will be.

Most people are going to be too thick to understand it - which is exactly what the government want. A quick crash would make people angry, but I bet in 2025 you'll get people on the forums saying stuff like 'where's the crash, my house is worth more than what I paid for it'.

Inflation is the thief, but the dumbness of most of the people will allow it to happen.

You mean like inflating away their mortgages?

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3 hours ago, simon2 said:

Seems to me that even in the media when talking about house prices (whether rises or falls) they only talk about it in nominal terms. Even here, that graph seems nominal.

Said it several times but I really believe the 'crash' will not be fast, and won't be in nominal terms, but inflation adjusted. In a single year something like 5% inflation might not be noticeable, but over 5 years it will be.

Most people are going to be too thick to understand it - which is exactly what the government want. A quick crash would make people angry, but I bet in 2025 you'll get people on the forums saying stuff like 'where's the crash, my house is worth more than what I paid for it'.

Inflation is the thief, but the dumbness of most of the people will allow it to happen.

Say that person fixed their mortgage at 1.5% on a 75% LTV for those five years, as you can do now.

If inflation is 5% per annum and house prices rises 3% per annum. Is that person a dumbass?

If you can fix your debt at a low rate then inflation, particularly if wage driven is your friend.

Edited by captainb
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53 minutes ago, captainb said:

Say that person fixed their mortgage at 1.5% on a 75% LTV for those five years, as you can do now.

If inflation is 5% per annum and house prices rises 3% per annum. Is that person a dumbass?

If you can fix your debt at a low rate then inflation, particularly if wage driven is your friend.

There will be no wage inflation - the moment that happens, IRs will shoot up. 

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7 minutes ago, msi said:

There will be no wage inflation - the moment that happens, IRs will shoot up. 

In 5bn years the sun will destroy the earth, that should do it!

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28 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

In 5bn years the sun will destroy the earth, that should do it!

It'll be 2bn years when the suns output increases to sterilise earth of all life with a braincell.  That will do it, although the remaining trolls will still drool about ImMiGrAnTs and the LiBeRaL SoCiAlIsTs

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30 minutes ago, msi said:

It'll be 2bn years when the suns output increases to sterilise earth of all life with a braincell.  That will do it, although the remaining trolls will still drool about ImMiGrAnTs and the LiBeRaL SoCiAlIsTs

Haven't you ever seen a bug house on sale in the garden centre?

Think of the opportunity, thousands of those tiny critters in a property the size of a shoe box.

Just needs extended family mortgages, where the family extends tp 2,000 members all paying a share.

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At best I can see either stagnation or minor decrease in house prices as stamp duty holiday finishes, why that matters when people are paying many more times any stamp duty saving is beyond me but it probably will have some psychological effect and potentially so will  a minor interest rise. I really can't see a big drop happening, people will just leave houses on at whatever they think they are 'worth' for years, see some like that already, unless there really is an economic implosion and mass job loses like the early 80s, which seems unlikely.  

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6 hours ago, petetong said:

At best I can see either stagnation or minor decrease in house prices as stamp duty holiday finishes, why that matters when people are paying many more times any stamp duty saving is beyond me but it probably will have some psychological effect and potentially so will  a minor interest rise. I really can't see a big drop happening, people will just leave houses on at whatever they think they are 'worth' for years, see some like that already, unless there really is an economic implosion and mass job loses like the early 80s, which seems unlikely.  

Some people have everything they own up for sale, at all times, for more than it's worth in the hope of finding a mug. It's a strategy that works if you can be bothered to keep all of your possessions (House, 2nd Home, car, boat, spacecraft etc) all in tip top viewing condition at all times, but for those of us with better things to do with our time it's not really an option.

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13 hours ago, captainb said:

Say that person fixed their mortgage at 1.5% on a 75% LTV for those five years, as you can do now.

If inflation is 5% per annum and house prices rises 3% per annum. Is that person a dumbass?

If you can fix your debt at a low rate then inflation, particularly if wage driven is your friend.

I'd bet most buyers just compare mortgage with equivalent rental payments. Inflation, Mortgage and interest rates don't usually get much consideration.

"Renting money is dead money".

Edited by wighty
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2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Except when it isn't...... Opportunity cost.

Unfortunately most buyers aren't financial whizz kids ( like you, Bruce, haha).

I will be putting a house on the market in couple of months. Will see what turns out.

 

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1 minute ago, wighty said:

Unfortunately most buyers aren't financial whizz kids ( like you, Bruce, haha).

I will be putting a house on the market in couple of months. Will see what turns out.

 

Surely you don't need to be a financial whizz kid, which I'm not, to understand the concept of opportunity cost?

Opportunity Cost Definition (investopedia.com)

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