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House Price Crash Forum

Poll - House Price Crash in...?


Crash within.........  

68 members have voted

  1. 1. How Long Till The Crash....

    • 0-3 Months
      2
    • 3-6 Months
      2
    • 6-12 Months
      12
    • 12+ Months
      23
    • No Crash
      29


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16 minutes ago, msi said:

No market.  Rigged Game.  No Crash.

Are there any groups / protesters or politicians that are actively protesting about house prices soaring, the rigged market and government policies (QE/HtB) to increase assets prices of mainly the rich?

This seems to be the only place and we don't really have a voice, we scream and shout but nobody hears us here.  The odd journalist might cover an odd topic from here occasionally but other than that the population seems content and just goes with the flow.. "as long as I pay £1800 a month on my mortgage and not rent it's a good deal, even though repayment has increased from 20 years to 40 years, I can afford £1800 pm"

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As I asked in a thread last month much to some poster’s displeasure, what is a crash? Nobody here seems to be able to give any sort of definition, which given the name of the website seems bizarre. How can you measure something that isn’t defined? Like, it was really hot yesterday, far hotter than the day before. Oh yeah by how much? I don’t know, to me it felt hotter, but I can’t put a number on it in terms of degrees C. Oh, well I disagree with  you, and you can’t give me a definition of hot, so I’m right…

As per the graph at the top of this thread, is a swing of 27% or so top to bottom a crash? Would this need to happen quicker than 2 years? ‘The crash’ is a rather nebulous concept it would appear as you all seem to have different views of what you would accept. Some are calling for the end of civilisation. Others will settle for 50%. Others want homeowners crying on the streets and begging them for 50p to buy their BTL portfolio, and there are a few more realistic bears who call for a small dip / fall 10-20% range. 
 

I voted for 12 months plus because you can’t say there will never be a crash. In the next 100 years there will no doubt be a drop or two in prices, but nobody here will be alive to post I told you so version 300. Nothing happening in the short to mid term. Economy rebounding, central banks will continue to look through any short term inflation, interest rates will remain rock bottom and there is an enormous shortage of property which given very basic supply / demand economics will keep prices where they are / rising. I see this being the way of the world for a number of years before there no doubt will be a shockwave that does impact the whole thing and we will see a fall. If I’m wrong I’m wrong, but I’ve been pretty happy with my crystal ball the last couple of years…

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20 minutes ago, Debt Slaves said:

Are there any groups / protesters or politicians that are actively protesting about house prices soaring, the rigged market and government policies (QE/HtB) to increase assets prices of mainly the rich?

This seems to be the only place and we don't really have a voice, we scream and shout but nobody hears us here.  The odd journalist might cover an odd topic from here occasionally but other than that the population seems content and just goes with the flow.. "as long as I pay £1800 a month on my mortgage and not rent it's a good deal, even though repayment has increased from 20 years to 40 years, I can afford £1800 pm"

As opposed to your rent which assuming you leave home at 21 is going to be 1800 quid a month for 60-80 years, and will increase alongside the whims of a yearly rent review from your landlord? Meanwhile your mortgage owning individual sees his debt eroded by inflation, pays it down and eventually lives rent free. Even in your extreme example of a 40 year mortgage (? Really how common), I would say that yes, the property purchaser is getting a good deal. 

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36 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

(? Really how common),

They (well, 35 year ones, but that's hardly much of a difference) are the only ones going now and for the past few years. None of my peers (30 years old) have shorter mortgages than that.

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11 minutes ago, Locke said:

They (well, 35 year ones, but that's hardly much of a difference) are the only ones going now and for the past few years. None of my peers (30 years old) have shorter mortgages than that.

So your position is it’s impossible to get a mortgage for less than 35 years? Must have been a dream when I got my 25 year one 18 months back…

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44 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

As opposed to your rent which assuming you leave home at 21 is going to be 1800 quid a month for 60-80 years, and will increase alongside the whims of a yearly rent review from your landlord? Meanwhile your mortgage owning individual sees his debt eroded by inflation, pays it down and eventually lives rent free. Even in your extreme example of a 40 year mortgage (? Really how common), I would say that yes, the property purchaser is getting a good deal. 

The increasing house prices and rents are a product of government props, not a "free" market.  Everyone needs a roof over their head and has no choice but to participate in this manipulated market, even if that equals giving up ever increasing slice of their take home pay / freedom.  If you're on the ladder already, than this state of affairs is wonderful, seems to be an can't lose situation, the government has your back with a tax payer bailout ready to roll out if there's any turbulence. 

Haven't they reported houses have gone up around 10% this year? if so 10% drop to me isn't a crash, I'll throw out at least a 30% drop from the current prices.

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Strange times, who can say what will happen.  Things are upside down and back to front.  Seems the hope is we exit this pandemic with so much economic activity that there is a recovery.  Problem for the UK is there is no one left to build houses so there will be supply issues, also materials are scarce and expensive.  Banks are happy to lend and people happy to borrow, unless one of these decides to stop up and up we go.  Also there is inflation seeping in and that can have a dramatic effect on house prices.  Can’t see a crash for now which probably means there is one coming.  

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7 minutes ago, Debt Slaves said:

The increasing house prices and rents are a product of government props, not a "free" market.  Everyone needs a roof over their head and has no choice but to participate in this manipulated market, even if that equals giving up ever increasing slice of their take home pay / freedom.  If you're on the ladder already, than this state of affairs is wonderful, seems to be an can't lose situation, the government has your back with a tax payer bailout ready to roll out if there's any turbulence. 

Haven't they reported houses have gone up around 10% this year? if so 10% drop to me isn't a crash, I'll throw out at least a 30% drop from the current prices.

 But you’re muddling things up. It’s not a comment on what is fair, but you wanted to make a statement that someone buying a house was somehow not getting a good deal. Let us therefore assume they can buy that house, and I would say there is nothing you can throw at me to say it’s a bad idea. House prices fall 100%, you still reach a point whereby you own something and pay no rent as opposed to your renter who will always pay rent. Job losses, defaults, illness etc etc well you may loose your house but so would the renter. Negative equity, ah well, such is the risk in life and it will sort itself out at some point.

I can agree with you that the situation has got out of hand. I can agree with you that it’s not particularly fair on the younger or less monied. Such is life and such has it always been stretching back the beginning of civilisation whereby one of my ancestors had a bigger cave than his neighbour. I would accept your definition of a crash by the way in that 30% is the figure I have in my head of when I would take notice. Having brought 18 months ago and based on a few recent sales in my street, that takes me personally back to about where I started financially. Crazy times indeed. 

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22 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

So your position is it’s impossible to get a mortgage for less than 35 years? Must have been a dream when I got my 25 year one 18 months back…

I don't know what your position was regarding LTV and income ratio.

I'm saying that for someone with a 10-20% deposit, they are not getting a shorter than 35 year mortgage, if they can even get one.

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1 hour ago, Twenty Something said:

So your position is it’s impossible to get a mortgage for less than 35 years? Must have been a dream when I got my 25 year one 18 months back…

Are there 15+ year fixed rate mortgages in the UK. These are pretty much the norm in Germany.

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37 minutes ago, Locke said:

I don't know what your position was regarding LTV and income ratio.

I'm saying that for someone with a 10-20% deposit, they are not getting a shorter than 35 year mortgage, if they can even get one.

Depends where in the country they buy and what expectations they have. 25year mortgage with 10-20% deposit is still feasible in part is the Midlands, up North, Scotland etc.

Edited by ucnvpe0
.
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44 minutes ago, Locke said:

I don't know what your position was regarding LTV and income ratio.

I'm saying that for someone with a 10-20% deposit, they are not getting a shorter than 35 year mortgage, if they can even get one.

I’d suggest you probably need to look further than your group of friends before making sweeping statements like that and you know it because all five of your friendship circle are in the same situation. I know plenty of people in the 25 - 45 age range myself included who have got properties in all corners of the south east with a 5 - 10% deposit and a mortgage. I might try to dig up some stats over lunch. 

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1 hour ago, Locke said:

I don't know what your position was regarding LTV and income ratio.

I'm saying that for someone with a 10-20% deposit, they are not getting a shorter than 35 year mortgage, if they can even get one.

And here you go (December 2019):

https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/system/files/The-changing-shape-of-the-UK-mortgage-market-FINAL-ONLINE-Jan-2020.pdf
 

Roughly 60% of FTB’s have terms greater than 25 years, 40% of home movers and 20% of remortgagers. The market as a whole therefore has about 40% of purchases supported by terms greater than 25 years, so you can’t even say that the majority of the mortgage market is long term. Some perhaps have big deposits, but it’s not going to be all. You may be able to find more recent stats to support your viewpoint, but I suspect you can’t. I suspect you have not to looked beyond the end of your nose / this website, and think that is representative of the world at large. 

 

E3D4F9D3-95C2-4B93-BB25-BF61863BAA30.jpeg

Edited by Twenty Something
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2 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

enormous shortage of property

😂

2 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

I would say that yes, the property purchaser is getting a good deal. 

😂

31 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

I know plenty of people in the 25 - 45 age range myself included who have got properties in all corners of the south east

😂

2 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

what is a crash? Nobody here seems to be able to give any sort of definition

I bet they have but you might have glossed over them. It happens in the Big Reman Thread and The Big Anti-Vax Thread all the time on here too so it's quite common.

In answer to the question, from this exact moment, a crash is 50% off today's average in less than 3 years. The percentage may or may not change tomorrow. I know for a fact it's 50% within three years as that is the level I will buy a house at in that time, and at the moment I will not buy if there is no crash.

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1 hour ago, Huggy said:

😂

😂

😂

I bet they have but you might have glossed over them. It happens in the Big Reman Thread and The Big Anti-Vax Thread all the time on here too so it's quite common.

In answer to the question, from this exact moment, a crash is 50% off today's average in less than 3 years. The percentage may or may not change tomorrow. I know for a fact it's 50% within three years as that is the level I will buy a house at in that time, and at the moment I will not buy if there is no crash.

I’m not entirely sure I get your chuckles, but I suspect in your mind you’ve made some sort of point which you’re happy with? 
 

As for the main part, I strongly suspect you will be very disappointed with the outcome of the next three years, but at least you can define the crash. Not really sure I get the knowing for a fact bit - is this the fact that you won’t be buying, or the fact that prices will drop 50%? 

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It’s like a thunderstorm. You may have all the ingredients, but no storm. Right now we have all the ingredients, but where’s the trigger action? For a storm to develop there needs to be a trigger.

I can’t see one, so no crash.

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4 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

I’m not entirely sure I get your chuckles, but I suspect in your mind you’ve made some sort of point which you’re happy with?

Yes Laura, it really cracks me up.

4 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

As for the main part, I strongly suspect you will be very disappointed with the outcome of the next three years, but at least you can define the crash. Not really sure I get the knowing for a fact bit - is this the fact that you won’t be buying, or the fact that prices will drop 50%? 

The 50% might change to another number at any and every point over the next 3 years. After a 50% drop after 2 years, I will only happy with a further 60% YoY in the news the year after. The acceleration down to an ultimate 80% off today's price would be my expectation for that.

Or nothing much will happen to houses, Bitcoin will hit £250k, and I'd accept a 10% increase. Who knows?

If neither, then maybe three years after 2022 will be my gleeful purchase :)

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2 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

Anyone think the BoE will finally raise the base rate next month? Even just 0.1%?

 

4 minutes ago, MarkD said:

I can’t see one, so no crash.

Situations do come and surprise us sometimes 😄 As I'm assuming no one with any real power or knowledge frequent these boards, I am uplifted by all these unbelievable situations.

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