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Nationwide House Price Index July 21 Falls


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What I don't understand with any of this (and I know you guys are all so terribly informed and intelligent but sadly I am just  a pensioner looking for a home ) is HOW prices can just keep going up and up and up like but indexes can show falls. 

Things have got mad since 2020 with prices but now they are getting TRULY mad in the areas we are looking which takes in  Wales/Gloucestershire/Herefordshire/Wiltshire/Dorset/Somerset/Devon/Cornwall and more. 

For instance these terraces in Radstock at tops never sold for much more than £220,000 now on for £270,000 + with bidding wars. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109972355#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110757866#/?channel=RES_BUY


This one in Glastonbury nearly £280,000 !!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/90378838#/?channel=RES_BUY

This one in Wales bought for £140,000 in 2016 (down from its 2007 price of £157,000 the highest anything along that row has ever sold for )  and done nothing to it now £245,00.  £140,000 looks like a good price along that row. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110888291#/?channel=RES_BUY

Stoke-sub-Hamdon houses for some reason historically take ages to sell (even if they have parking) . Historically sell for around £210,000, indeed this one sold for £210,000 last year done nothing to it now £250,000 with a bidding war. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111007289#/?channel=RES_BUY

And on it goes. 

So who is buying?

Would a mortgage company lend £280,000 + for a house that was valued at  £220,000 (early 2020) ? 

From a purely personal perspective it is all very depressing and I can't see this improving only getting more and more mad if rates go negative. 
In 2019 when we foolishly put our property on the market the agent said that anything over £230,000 was difficult to shift now those properties are £280,000 + so what happened? 

Edited by Dweller
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11 minutes ago, Dweller said:

What I don't understand with any of this (and I know you guys are all so terribly informed and intelligent but sadly I am just  a pensioner looking for a home ) is HOW prices can just keep going up and up and up like but indexes can show falls. 

Things have got mad since 2020 with prices but now they are getting TRULY mad in the areas we are looking which takes in  Wales/Gloucestershire/Herefordshire/Wiltshire/Dorset/Somerset/Devon/Cornwall and more. 

For instance these terraces in Radstock at tops never sold for much more than £220,000 now on for £270,000 + with bidding wars. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109972355#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110757866#/?channel=RES_BUY


This one in Glastonbury nearly £280,000 !!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/90378838#/?channel=RES_BUY

This one in Wales bought for £140,000 in 2016 (down from its 2007 price of £157,000 the highest anything along that row has ever sold for )  and done nothing to it now £245,00.  £140,000 looks like a good price along that row. 

Stoke-sub-Hamdon houses for some reason historically take ages to sell (even if they have parking) . Historically sell for around £210,000, indeed this one sold for £210,000 last year done nothing to it now £250,000 with a bidding war. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111007289#/?channel=RES_BUY

And on it goes. 

So who is buying?

Would a mortgage company lend £280,000 + for a house that was valued at  £220,000 (early 2020) ? 

From a purely personal perspective it is all very depressing and I can't see this improving only getting more and more mad if rates go negative. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110888291#/?channel=RES_BUY

Link for the welsh house I forgot to include

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1 hour ago, Dweller said:

So who is buying?

Probably ordinary Joes who think they can do the same. After all they are surrounded by people crowing about how they bought 6 years ago and "it's gone up £80k" and "aren't you on the ladder yet?" Your house price has gone up = your money is worth less. Sadly nobody is crowing about how much more expensive will be the next house they will buy.

 

Edited by nickb1
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33 minutes ago, Dweller said:

What I don't understand with any of this (and I know you guys are all so terribly informed and intelligent but sadly I am just  a pensioner looking for a home ) is HOW prices can just keep going up and up and up like but indexes can show falls. 

Things have got mad since 2020 with prices but now they are getting TRULY mad in the areas we are looking which takes in  Wales/Gloucestershire/Herefordshire/Wiltshire/Dorset/Somerset/Devon/Cornwall and more. 

For instance these terraces in Radstock at tops never sold for much more than £220,000 now on for £270,000 + with bidding wars. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109972355#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110757866#/?channel=RES_BUY


This one in Glastonbury nearly £280,000 !!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/90378838#/?channel=RES_BUY

This one in Wales bought for £140,000 in 2016 (down from its 2007 price of £157,000 the highest anything along that row has ever sold for )  and done nothing to it now £245,00.  £140,000 looks like a good price along that row. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110888291#/?channel=RES_BUY

Stoke-sub-Hamdon houses for some reason historically take ages to sell (even if they have parking) . Historically sell for around £210,000, indeed this one sold for £210,000 last year done nothing to it now £250,000 with a bidding war. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111007289#/?channel=RES_BUY

And on it goes. 

So who is buying?

Would a mortgage company lend £280,000 + for a house that was valued at  £220,000 (early 2020) ? 

From a purely personal perspective it is all very depressing and I can't see this improving only getting more and more mad if rates go negative. 
In 2019 when we foolishly put our property on the market the agent said that anything over £230,000 was difficult to shift now those properties are £280,000 + so what happened? 

Don't forget these are ASKING prices. Most people and EA's will stretch the upper limits of this boom by constantly raising asking prices. What matters is what these places sell for - if they do sell at all.

 

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7 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Don't forget these are ASKING prices. Most people and EA's will stretch the upper limits of this boom by constantly raising asking prices. What matters is what these places sell for - if they do sell at all.

 

These were on last week both sold with multiple viewings, multiple offers and then best offers by Friday.   
We were booked to see the 2nd one but was phone at midday to say they already had multiple offers. Everyone who had viewed in the morning had put in an offer and agent had viewings all afternoon and next day. 
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110534522#/?channel=RES_BUY
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110416157#/?channel=RES_BUY

Contacted agent about some of the ones I listed today , all multiple viewings which will again be best offers. 

Don't get it. 

It would break my heart to have to offer £240,000 for a house in Radstock let alone £280,000 which is £60,000 over the early 2020 price and even then in 2020 would have probably (as you have said) sold for less than asking . 

Don't know where this madness ends because as you know EAs price a house by looking to see what else is on, but if these properties are starting at £60,000 over the 2020 price and then with bidding wars, where does this end? 

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I'll chuck an anecdote in. 2019 viewed cottage on at 235k. Talked surveyor friend into looking at pics and asked if would come on 2nd view. His response - its woryh £40k less than that.

When this was put to estate agent got told wrong, no way, blah blah. They had 3 other way more positive viewings, etc... yet low and behold they delisted 2020 and decided to do all the jobs I listed.

2020 post lockdown 1 they put on for £260k. Mysteriously I know someone living nearby and they haven't sold.

It briefly went up during Stamp duty cut for £270k and has since not sold. They have apparently decided its so lovely they want to stay... or so they tell everyone.

These are the people driving the asking prices - they wanted £235k for a project as if it was done. Now its done they want nearly £40k extra on what a surveyor said would be finished price

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1 hour ago, Dweller said:

What I don't understand with any of this (and I know you guys are all so terribly informed and intelligent but sadly I am just  a pensioner looking for a home ) is HOW prices can just keep going up and up and up like but indexes can show falls. 

Things have got mad since 2020 with prices but now they are getting TRULY mad in the areas we are looking which takes in  Wales/Gloucestershire/Herefordshire/Wiltshire/Dorset/Somerset/Devon/Cornwall and more. 

For instance these terraces in Radstock at tops never sold for much more than £220,000 now on for £270,000 + with bidding wars. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109972355#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110757866#/?channel=RES_BUY


This one in Glastonbury nearly £280,000 !!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/90378838#/?channel=RES_BUY

This one in Wales bought for £140,000 in 2016 (down from its 2007 price of £157,000 the highest anything along that row has ever sold for )  and done nothing to it now £245,00.  £140,000 looks like a good price along that row. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110888291#/?channel=RES_BUY

Stoke-sub-Hamdon houses for some reason historically take ages to sell (even if they have parking) . Historically sell for around £210,000, indeed this one sold for £210,000 last year done nothing to it now £250,000 with a bidding war. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111007289#/?channel=RES_BUY

And on it goes. 

So who is buying?

Would a mortgage company lend £280,000 + for a house that was valued at  £220,000 (early 2020) ? 

From a purely personal perspective it is all very depressing and I can't see this improving only getting more and more mad if rates go negative. 
In 2019 when we foolishly put our property on the market the agent said that anything over £230,000 was difficult to shift now those properties are £280,000 + so what happened? 

There's lies, damned lies and statistics.

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4 minutes ago, msi said:

...and then there's the HPC troll squad 😁

Are you saying I am a troll? 

Because I am not. 

I am a desperate pensioner looking for a home in a totally mad market having been priced out by foolishly selling our home last year. 
It helps to read what you guys have to say in what is a totally depressing situation. 

I struggle to understand the things that you are all so informed about but I do try keep up /catch up get some sense of what is happening not least because it helps with the depression. 
 

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6 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Mortgage company will lend to the value of the property. 

But what is the value when the indexes are saying one thing and the properties are on for 25% over early 2020 prices and even then there are bidding wars?

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1 hour ago, Dweller said:

From a purely personal perspective it is all very depressing and I can't see this improving only getting more and more mad if rates go negative. 
In 2019 when we foolishly put our property on the market the agent said that anything over £230,000 was difficult to shift now those properties are £280,000 + so what happened? 

...two effects have driven that change: first, the direct effects it has had on saving and borrowing behaviour; and second, the indirect effects on the value of household balance sheets through asset price changes. In aggregate, households have increased nominal savings by around £125billion more than would have been expected absent the pandemic and at the same time, non-credit card consumer debt has fallen by around £10 billion.



https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/wealth-gap-year/

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1 hour ago, highcontrast said:

Don't pay much attention to Nationwide/Halifax indexes as there is a clear agenda IMO, but is 0.5% one of the bigger % (reported) falls?

 

They're regulated. If they fiddled the figures for publishing an index like this they'd receive extremely large fines and potential jail sentences.

I'm not saying it doesn't happen, it has in the past, but the incentive to do so is nonsense compared to the consequences.

Additionally, they probably publish all the raw data so it can be checked.

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2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

They're regulated. If they fiddled the figures for publishing an index like this they'd receive extremely large fines and potential jail sentences.

I'm not saying it doesn't happen, it has in the past, but the incentive to do so is nonsense compared to the consequences.

Additionally, they probably publish all the raw data so it can be checked.

Also the academic economics and statistics communities would be on their backs, the British society statistical society etc.

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19 minutes ago, Dweller said:

Are you saying I am a troll? 

Because I am not. 

I am a desperate pensioner looking for a home in a totally mad market having been priced out by foolishly selling our home last year. 
It helps to read what you guys have to say in what is a totally depressing situation. 

I struggle to understand the things that you are all so informed about but I do try keep up /catch up get some sense of what is happening not least because it helps with the depression. 

Are you in touch with agents? What I mean by this is are you going in and having a pleasant chat with them at a quiet time, explaining your situation (don't underestimate the value of a sob story), and asking them to keep you in mind when something in your budget comes up? This includes places that have fallen through, tricky deceased estates, those places that they just want a patient buyer who will shut up and wait for everything to get sorted without nagging them. 

My feeling is there will be another burst before winter sets in (people want to be in their new houses for Xmas) and then the overpriced places that didn't sell in summer might start to consider reasonable offers. 

Edited by PeanutButter
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1 minute ago, PeanutButter said:

Are you in touch with agents? What I mean by this is are you going in and having a pleasant chat with them at a quiet time, explaining your situation, and asking them to keep you in mind when something in your budget comes up? This includes places that have fallen through, tricky deceased estates, those places that they just want a patient buyer who will shut up and wait for everything to get sorted without nagging them. 

My feeling is there will be another burst before winter sets in (people want to be in their new houses for Xmas) and then the overpriced places that didn't sell in summer might start to consider reasonable offers. 

But there's almost no inventory in the first place....

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17 minutes ago, ucnvpe0 said:

...two effects have driven that change: first, the direct effects it has had on saving and borrowing behaviour; and second, the indirect effects on the value of household balance sheets through asset price changes. In aggregate, households have increased nominal savings by around £125billion more than would have been expected absent the pandemic and at the same time, non-credit card consumer debt has fallen by around £10 billion.



https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/wealth-gap-year/

And there's the billion dollar question, where is all this spare consumer cash going to end up.

If we have all this inflationary spending on houses and other stuff ongoing, then eventually either (1) it will stop like the BoE say it will or (2) it won't and they'll raise rates.

Either way it will stop being funneled into property somehow. But exactly how and when I cannot say.

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Just now, Si1 said:

But there's almost no inventory in the first place....

Even more reason to keep cozy with agents. And I detest agents, promise. But they are a valuable resource and in this market need to be treated as such. My favourite types are the jaded old ones who've seen everything and just want a quiet life. :D 

 

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8 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Even more reason to keep cozy with agents. And I detest agents, promise. But they are a valuable resource and in this market need to be treated as such. My favourite types are the jaded old ones who've seen everything and just want a quiet life. :D 

 

What do I do then, just pop in and have a chat at a quiet time?

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16 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Even more reason to keep cozy with agents. And I detest agents, promise. But they are a valuable resource and in this market need to be treated as such. My favourite types are the jaded old ones who've seen everything and just want a quiet life. :D 

 

😁  When I venture into an EA's, I try to avoid the perma-smile in a suit and look to the corner to find the jaded face

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