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What is happening post stamp duty holiday?


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Family works for a national housebuilding. His region is Surrey/Hampshire.  Last week they sold 0 !  Before they were flying, now just dried up.   

Neighbour just put house on the market. 2 weeks later 25k taken off list price (around 4%).  Very very slow,little interest.   This is a ultra popular road. 

 

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Just now, PeanutButter said:

In my area any sub 2mil houses with gardens are selling within a week. Yard instead of garden takes longer. Flats take longer still + reductions. On bright side I did see a 200k reduction from 2.5 on a semi-d. 

Since I'm only asking about the market within the past week then that's a lot to infer....?

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A house we were interested in at 400k came to the market 4 weeks ago at 450k. It did not sell immediately, but is now SSTC with no PR on rightmove. I am increasingly bearish, but local market activity does not support my view. 
 

Yet.

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All someone can really infer is what is happening in your own areas.

Browsing other 'normal' forums I think gives a good insight into the average mindset.

Remember the scaremongering of EA's saying if there was no extension of the holiday all the chains would break? On Mumsnet/MSE there is not really much talk of people complaining. To be sure there are one or two cases, and there obviously will be people whose move depended upon the saving. But I am inclined to think that this is nothing widespread.

For areas I am looking at (London/South East) in a more wider timescale (since start of year)

- Listing volumes still below pre-pandemic. This is something that has never recovered, reckon numbers are 30-40% down from pre-2019, some locations even more. Some I think explained by houses disappearing quicker, and less flats due to unsellability. Maybe this will unwind.

- Flats are really struggling. Out of the last 50 or so flats I have saved on Rightmove (dates back to start of year), 5 have sold/SSTC, 3 is under offer, 18 is removed. The others are still going. Of those sales 1 is repo, 1 shared ownership, 1 stuck at SSTC since Feb, 1 where a sale has fallen through before (mortgageability questionable). There may be sales hidden in the removed but I look at the list regularly so I am inclined to think most of these have been just taken off market. The under offer ones I feel are not sales at all, maybe an investor leaving a low-ball offer in.

- Houses are flying. Using the same time period virtually all the houses listed I saved sold (18 sold, 2 taken off). There is not a single stale listing, even stuff I added recent (some of which this month) is SSTC.

So I am inclined to think that the stamp duty holiday was great for houses, but did feck all for flats, even the ones where the saving was the maximum. Too early to see if there will be any changes to this. 

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On 24/07/2021 at 16:35, Si1 said:

Your observations please. Anything happening since 24th July. Let us know what you see.

 

7 hours ago, Si1 said:

Bounce

Any anecdotes from this week? Are buyers still queuing up to buy stuff?

Emphatically yes. 
These two both had bidding wars. Couldn't get to see the first one too many people already booked with offers, booked to see the 2nd one but phoned at midday to be told they had already had 7 offers in. 
Agent said a semi the week before 16 viewings and then best offer by Saturday. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110416157#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/110534522#/?channel=RES_BUY

This is what we are finding even on properties  £60,000 + over what would have been the asking price in 2020, all with bidding wards. 


Linked some on this thread. 
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/241204-nationwide-house-price-index-july-21-falls/&tab=comments#comment-1103764076

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Saw a decent place (4 bed house) on at £800k. Called EA and said we had a max budget of £750k and that we would be interested to view if there was any flexibility on price. EA called back in 5 mins and said when did we want to view. 

Whilst supply is still ridiculously low, I suspect the number of buyers has also drastically reduced post-SDLT holiday in this area. (SW London/Surrey).

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This is interesting. So some parts of the market are dead and some are still crazy. In particular it could be that the craziest part of the market is kinda mid priced family homes. Maybe. We'll see what transpires.

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I understand that some completion periods can be as short as 5 weeks if it's a simple transaction, no chain etc. So deffo this could explain why mid priced family houses are still hot.

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Market still buoyant near me but the frenzy seems to be slowing according to some EAs. Those kite flying are having to real things in and may have been too ambitious to get the very best price. 

BBC mention today that market slowing. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57997492

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22 minutes ago, fuzzy_bear said:

As ever, anecdotes are unlikely to be helpful & clearly subject to bias 

 

Will be some time before data emerges

This is an internet forum 😁  Empirical data and analysis isn't as good as my gut feel and talking to Dave at 'spoons.

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The market for family homes in South Manchester where I am is still frenzied. Anything decent 3-5 beds is wild. Wife viewed a 4 bed today. Told they are having 2 open days. 3 bids in immediately this morning. Agent stated normally have 30 houses in inventory but currently have less than half. Speculated elderly boomers are still reluctant to have strangers in their house. 

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On 28/07/2021 at 09:16, Smiley George said:

Saw a decent place (4 bed house) on at £800k. Called EA and said we had a max budget of £750k and that we would be interested to view if there was any flexibility on price. EA called back in 5 mins and said when did we want to view. 

Whilst supply is still ridiculously low, I suspect the number of buyers has also drastically reduced post-SDLT holiday in this area. (SW London/Surrey).

Speaking to someone selling a similar home similar price, large front and rear gardens, downstairs extension. Had three offers in the first week of viewing.....went for the one with nothing to sell, already sold, moved to live locally, actively looking ready to move fast.;)

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57 minutes ago, quilan said:

The market for family homes in South Manchester where I am is still frenzied. Anything decent 3-5 beds is wild. Wife viewed a 4 bed today. Told they are having 2 open days. 3 bids in immediately this morning. Agent stated normally have 30 houses in inventory but currently have less than half. Speculated elderly boomers are still reluctant to have strangers in their house. 

South Manchester is always 'frenzied' because the entire working population of manc is trying to squeeze into Didsbury/Chorlton/Sale/Alty. It's more mental than London was in its mental years. 

I'm guessing if you looked a few hundred metres away in Wythenshawe you'd find something decent and the agent would bite your hand off for an offer - however it'll be outside of the grammar catchment area and that's really the only reason people look to buy houses there. 

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25 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

South Manchester is always 'frenzied' because the entire working population of manc is trying to squeeze into Didsbury/Chorlton/Sale/Alty. It's more mental than London was in its mental years. 

I'm guessing if you looked a few hundred metres away in Wythenshawe you'd find something decent and the agent would bite your hand off for an offer - however it'll be outside of the grammar catchment area and that's really the only reason people look to buy houses there. 

It wasn't frenzied in 2019. It was busy but manageable up to the pandemic. Since the end of the first lockdown it has been very busy. It became frenzied when the stamp duty holiday started and reached mega frenzy in March/April this year when stamp duty was extended. It is still frenzied but perhaps a notch or two below the craziness of March/April but not enough to help. 

I'm actually not limited by school catchment but I prefer the areas with good schools as they are just nicer in general.

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What they saved in SD tax they paid for in higher prices.....keeps the money and debt flowing, one day all gains made might have to be spent on living, when work and health dries up?.....born with nothing, die with nothing.;)

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2 minutes ago, quilan said:

It wasn't frenzied in 2019. It was busy but manageable up to the pandemic. Since the end of the first lockdown it has been very busy. It became frenzied when the stamp duty holiday started and reached mega frenzy in March/April this year when stamp duty was extended. It is still frenzied but perhaps a notch or two below the craziness of March/April but not enough to help. 

I do remember pre-covid work colleagues being ever so particular about where they could accept buying. Their rightmove search area was exceptionally detailed down to individual street level, with many seemingly ok streets not making the cut. This level of pickiness is bound to increase competition for those tiny acceptable areas.

Post-covid yes i imagine is far worse. A work colleague has just bought a very basic 30's semi in Alty for .5 mil. I viewed an almost identical house in 2017 in south London for the same price. Manc is catching up to London levels of crazy. 

3 minutes ago, quilan said:

I'm actually not limited by school catchment but I prefer the areas with good schools as they are just nicer in general.

Fair enough. I don't actually like Wythenshawe either, but i find it odd that this horrible area is surrounded by good areas yet still manages to remain horrible. If it was in London people would have settled for here and it would have become 'gentrified' by now - for better or worse. 

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22 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

I do remember pre-covid work colleagues being ever so particular about where they could accept buying. Their rightmove search area was exceptionally detailed down to individual street level, with many seemingly ok streets not making the cut. This level of pickiness is bound to increase competition for those tiny acceptable areas.

Post-covid yes i imagine is far worse. A work colleague has just bought a very basic 30's semi in Alty for .5 mil. I viewed an almost identical house in 2017 in south London for the same price. Manc is catching up to London levels of crazy. 

Fair enough. I don't actually like Wythenshawe either, but i find it odd that this horrible area is surrounded by good areas yet still manages to remain horrible. If it was in London people would have settled for here and it would have become 'gentrified' by now - for better or worse. 

You're absolutely right about Wythenshawe. My brother told me not to touch it even though on paper it's great value by comparison. 

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20 hours ago, Si1 said:

 So deffo this could explain why mid priced family houses are still hot.

That would be my experience (Kent / SE England). 2017/18 3-bed semi money now might possibly maybe get you a '3' bed terrace with no parking. Anything family-sized with a drive doesn't last long although there are some weak signs of market stagnation if not price falls.

Really I'd suggest it's too early to say as those on both sides of the transactions still seem to think the prices are reasonable or at least acceptable.

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