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non-FTBer

Cpi - What Do You Think?

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I'd like to guage peoples reactions to the ONS data on what is having the largest effect on the CPI inflation rate at present (graph below), and also see whether people think costs are rising or falling in the various parts of the CPI basket.

CPIgr1.jpg

Comments on the graph please.

Transport costs falling - that stands out to me as a load of crap. Petrol prices are increasing, road tax stays the same, insurance flat/rising. Public transport costs rising well above CPI inflation rate.... what gives?

Breakdown of CPI basket contents, along with my own comments:

  • 1 Food & non-alcoholic beverages - My shop at Tescos just seems to get more expensive
  • 2 Alcohol & tobacco - Fags aren't getting any cheaper... been buying all my Vodka in Poland
  • 3 Clothing & footwear - Not getting any cheaper but for the perpetual sales
  • 4 Housing & household services - House prices are very high, rent is relatively cheaper. Household bills are rocketing
  • 5 Furniture & household goods - Not really any opinion on this as I avoid buying new (prefer old things)
  • 6 Health - Don't know, not had to have a kidney transplant privately this year.
  • 7 Transport - Up, up and away. Petrol price increase, Rail/Bus fare increases
  • 8 Communication - Down. Cheaper mobile calls (competition), Skype, competitive broadband market.
  • 9 Recreation & culture - On the up IMHO. Not much that is cheaper that I've noticed.
  • 10 Education - Don't know.
  • 11 Restaurants & hotels - Flat/Down due to less demand. Most restaurants I've visited recently have been eerily quiet... Hotels cheaper on late deals due to plenty of empty rooms.
  • 12 Miscellaneous goods & services - Overall I think my £ buys far less than last year unless I buy something in one of these perpetual sales.

Overall my impression is that disposable income is being squeezed out of Joe Public.

If this is entirely down to debt repayment then it will obviously only affect those with debt.

post-692-1139832692.jpg

Edited by non-FTBer

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Transport costs falling - that stands out to me as a load of crap.

LOL. I took the train into London last week. Five years ago it was 30p for parking by the station and about 4.50 for a return ticket... now it's 80p for parking and about 11.50 for a return ticket: over a 150% increase in five years of 'low inflation'. Also, in return for passengers paying 2.5x as much, they've reduced the number of trains!

Needless to say, I rarely go into London anymore, whereas I used to go there 2-3 times a week.

As far as I'm concerned, the CPI is utter garbage.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

# 1 Food & non-alcoholic beverages No major changes evident, but I do use the Tesco £5 off vochers available on the web quite a lot.

# 2 Alcohol & tobacco - Don't smoke, hardly ever drink (Mr Exciting eh?)

# 3 Clothing & footwear - Cheapo stuff still cheapo (£10 for a pair of trousers)

# 4 Housing & household services - Electric and gas definitely on the up, rent (Council) still OK, not looking forward to new council tax bill though!

# 5 Furniture & household goods - Don't buy much in this line very often

# 6 Health - Due some new glasses this year, will have to time it with a Specsavers sale

# 7 Transport - Bus fares in South Yorkshire are far higher than comparable regions. Tram fares are better value in comparison, but the tram doesn't go everywhere alas.

# 8 Communication - Plan to downgrade my Telewest connection (they're upping the speeds on all tariffs soon anyway)

# 9 Recreation & culture - Cinema about the same, food and drink in the foyer is overpriced but it's ALWAYS overpriced.

# 10 Education - Not affected by this.

# 11 Restaurants & hotels - Get 2 for one meals on the rare occasion I go out. :)

# 12 Miscellaneous goods & services - Escort services seem to be getting cheaper! (only kidding) .

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The CPI stats are a lie. The BOE are as bad as the crooks at the ONS. The BOE are the last line of defence against incompetent economic management and they have failed the public very badly.

Edited by OnlyMe

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That graph is scandalous and there to completely mislead.

Reran the calcualtions myself and agree with the numbers, but what it is saying is that Transport had 0.2% less impact in November than it did in December, so despite what a quick glance at the graph tells you it is Transport that is having the biggest POSITIVE effect on the December data

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The graph shows November to December changes, does it not?

Month on month economic data is dubious, in my opinion.

I personally feel quarterly data is dubious. The sample is too small and subject to noise.

It is good to immerse yourself in data to the point where you have a genuine feel about what’s going on.

I feel at the moment our domestic economy is weak, energy cost are high and look set to go higher. Exports are low and looking weaker.

There is talk of job cuts in the news which will not help the retail sector as consumers dry up.

Expect lay offs in the manufacturing sector this spring. Any company with high energy consumption is likely to see poor growth possibly with the exception of Chorus as they have a huge Asian market willing to pay more for construction materials.

The North Sea tax revenue forecast is £7billion.

There are 28 billion barrels left in the North Sea (from 62bil), production is currently 1.86 million barrels per day and falling steadily by 200,000 barrels per year. GB can expect this particular tax revenue to shrink every year, unless he raises taxes every year but that would accelerate production falls and increase our dependence on foreign oil.

GB needs a clever way to fill this hole, but where the hell can he raise £7billion per annum?

The energy crisis looks to be a fairly reliable trigger for a coming slump. What the UK needs right now is a smaller government.

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The timing of the next move on interest rates should become clearer this week as the Bank of England issues its growth and inflation forecasts and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes a raft of data for January. While inflation is expected to fall back in coming months, the impact of seasonal food prices and higher gas and electricity prices will push the figure for January up by 0.2 per cent to 2.2 per cent, said Philip Shaw of Investec.

The ONS inflation figure tomorrow will be followed a day later by a rise in unemployment for the 11th month in a row. And on Thursday there will be more gloom from the high street with Investec forecasting a 0.2 per cent drop in sales volumes for January.

http://www.westpress.co.uk/displayNode.jsp...&folderPk=75885

If there is no cut in March, the chances of the next move being up increase significantlty.

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GB needs a clever way to fill this hole, but where the hell can he raise £7billion per annum?

Tax on BTL?

Tax on 2nd Homes?

CGT on primary residence?

Anything related to the 'free money' that people got from their houses.... surely they don't mind being taxed on it as it was 'free' after all?

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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