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Big_Head

Will 2006 Be The Year?

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Will 2006 be the year that it is universally expected that HP prices will fall.

Suprisingly neighbours, colleagues still think House prices are going up, but at some point the spin may lose momentum and people believe prices are on there way down.

I thought the change of sentiment would be last year but it did not happen. Of course there is a possibility that it will not happen at all! No house price drop will bring in a new econimic landscape.

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big head

the market turned in the south 2 years ago.

the north is now stagnating and with all areas likely to see drops in the current year, the spin merchants will have a difficult task pretending that prices are still rising. maybe they will find a hamlet on the orkneys where prices have risen this year and use that as an example of a rising market.

i dont think the public is fooled any more

also, with increasing job cuts, a government short of money to keep increasing public sector employment, disastrous trade figures, sky high utility bills( inc council tax) , where are the next lot of people going to come from who are stupid enough to keep the merry go round going.?

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We think maybe end of 2006 - things are struggling now. It wouldn't surprise me however, if it was still only slowing down and it hadn't happened by 2007. I'm happy to wait and watch confidently. We all want it to happen now - sometimes i forget - these things happen in very slow motion. It's only looking back that it will seem fast. It's like being pregnant - the last stage of pregnancy can feel like forever, but it's only because you're being reminded of it everyday ('cos you can't put your shoes on or see your feet or walk without waddling!)

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Guest Winners and Losers

This year will be the year that sentiment starts to turn. 2007 and people will no longer be saying that prices never go down. There will be a stunned silence.

I think 2006 will be the turning point in publics opinion, although I'm not hearing it yet down the pub, could end up being later on in the year.

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YES

Everything is in place:

Confidence down sharply

Unemployment up

IR going up

Affordability over-stretched

Bankruptcy/repossessions up sharply

I think interest rates going up would make a big impact on sentiment. Why do you think they'll be going up?

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Yes but no.. but no but yes....

I believe the Property markets in for a Spring boom that will quickly turn to a dramatic slide in prices in the third and fourth quarters.....but hey...who really knows?

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I'd be surprised if a crash came this year. The markets seem to be factoring in one more interest rate cut, and your average person seems to think that the only thing that can cause a house price crash is rocketing interest rates.. <_<

One of my mates is planning on buying this summer (FTB with gf) and he plans on taking out a 100k mortgage, and his missus will be doing the same - so assume they have 25k savings each they'll be looking at a 250k house. Ive pointed out to him hes taking a big risk, but he doesnt see the danger.

I think towards the second half of this year the market may start to look VERY shakey;

1) Interest rates will probably be starting an upwards cycle

2) People will really be feeling the effects of the big increases in utility and petrol prices

3) Council tax looks like it'll be YET ANOTHER big increase for most

4) Theres a good chance the numbers going bankrupt will continue increasing

The government have to raise taxes and BTL is a sitting duck because TV programmes make it out to be such a money-spinner that there probably wont be too much opposition from the average person who rents or is an OO.

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"I think interest rates going up would make a big impact on sentiment"

I agree. Rates turning upwards would be a big blow to sentiment. The effect on monthly outgoings may in reality be minor but the market is all about sentiment.

The bulls can make a lot of good arguments that prices should not crash. But markets do not act on reason in the short term and there has never been a soft landing.

When all the media say houses will never be a good investment again and there has been a 'paradigm shift' and house price:salary ratio is 3 or 3 1/2, then will be the best time to buy. Could be 3 - 7 years from now.

If WW3 starts in the ME, all bets are off - totally uncharted territory

Keep happy! ;)

Edited by dodgy

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I would say that the tanker is currently in process of completing the turn. Come the end of this year its going to be steamrolling towards us.

I think 2006/2007 is the most likely scenario atm.

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Who really knows?

I'd give in 2 years, if nothing seems to be happening I'll be very worried.

In that situation I think the mother of all crashes would be on the cards. :o

A kindred spirit...all I say to myself at the moment as I doubt more each day that prices will fall in the next year is that if I save hard at the moment then even if I buy in a year and prices nosedive later on hopefully I'll still have enough cash in reserve in other investements to take advantage later on.

Banking all your hopes (and money) on a HPC is looking myopic to me. For some of us we need to have a contingency in case we get the timing all wrong and the market crashes after we have bought.

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Will 2006 be the year that it is universally expected that HP prices will fall.

Suprisingly neighbours, colleagues still think House prices are going up, but at some point the spin may lose momentum and people believe prices are on there way down.

I thought the change of sentiment would be last year but it did not happen. Of course there is a possibility that it will not happen at all! No house price drop will bring in a new econimic landscape.

Er no, I think 2005 was the year of HPI ending, and that's all the 'crash' you'll get folks unless interest rates go double figured again.

Meanwhile, the Spring mini boom is already underway but that doesn't mean big price increases - it just means houses are selling in sensible times, and at near or at asking prices.

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I would think 2006 will be a wake up call.

"My guess is that a lot of this overbuilding is the result of the pre-SIPPs anticipation. The builders were anticipating a bonanza of BTL sales this Spring when SIPPS kicked in. Long range plans had to be laid including spending 100's of thousands on planning permissions, signing contracts with architects, QS's, various contractors and so forth. Materials had to be ordered months in advance and loans arranged. Then the Axe fell and SIPPs was no more. But it was too late for the builders as all that logistical momentum was already moving and it was too great to stop it on a dime. The result: a glut of unwanted properties. A disaster of momentous proportion and one which may well trigger the HPC this Spring."

quote realistbear

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ic=21318&st=40#

A lot of new apartment blocks are nearing completion, yet it appears their will not be an economy to support asking prices. Jobs are going down the pan, busineses are in a contraction, Sipps u-turn. It will be mild panic first.

Edited by notanewmember

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2005 was they year sentiment changed IMO.

Noone I speak to about housing (and thats quite a few people) are ramping the market, which was the case 2004 and earlier.

No one I speak to, and it's my favourite topic of conversation, (and has been for two years) knows anything about any impending crash. I have not met one person socially, or at work, who accepts a bubble exists or even knows what a bubble is, although a few have a vague recollection of something about tulips taught at school. I have failed to convert anyone to HPC, or bubble, theory. :(:unsure:

From my perspective sentiment is positively rock solid. We need a shock, something to accelerate matters. Prices reverting to their historic average in 10 years will not help FTB' in their 30s waiting to buy. :angry:

My hope: btl landlords, 'investors' and builders dumping tens of thousands of properties on the market this Spring, combined with further increases in US interest rates forcing up ours. The dumping has already started as illustrated by threads showing Rightmove sales of 'portfolio's. Never seen that before and I must say they do look ominous. :)

I do not believe it an unreasonable expectation for dumping to start this Spring. Btls, investors and builders have been showing signs of financial stress for some time. We know yields have not made financial sense. There is evidence of significant increases in inventories already, as illustrated in recent threads. Landlords are now realising there are far greater returns to be had elsewhere.

Even one 25 points increase in UK rates this year will rock sentiment to its core IMO. It would be totally unexpected because mainstream news media is not discussing the likely impact of further hikes in US rates on ours. For me, (right or not) the central issue for our economy is US interest rates. If they continue to rise, as appears likely, then ours must follow suit at some point. I've heard little or no debate of this issue on TV, radio, or the newspapers I read. It seems inevitable to me that US rates will continue rising and we will follow. Once that gets into the mainstream, (combined with the first UK rate rise), sentiment will fold. Then we shall hear about it down the pub, I guarantee.

Will 2006 be the year that it is universally expected that HP prices will fall.

To answer Big Head's question.

If my dream scenario happens (dumping +increase in interest rates) then 2006 will be the year, the year in which sentiment will dramatically change and when it will be universally accepted HPC prices will fall.

Why?

Because faced with the spectre of further interest rate rises, and tens of thousands of unsold properties, the mainstream press will have no choice but to print stories of distressed landlords selling their portfolios and the likely impact of even modest interst rate rises on the already distressed and indebted mewed up consumer. Sentiment will fold IMO and then we'll see some real action. :o

But what do I know.... :ph34r:

lander22ey.gif

landlord.jpg

post-67-1139748204.gif

post-67-1139748255.jpg

Edited by Baz63

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Er no, I think 2005 was the year of HPI ending, and that's all the 'crash' you'll get folks unless interest rates go double figured again.

6% IRs ( our historical neutral )are enough to totally screw the debtors, and double figures, well I would advise you to leave the country. ;)

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Er no, I think 2005 was the year of HPI ending, and that's all the 'crash' you'll get folks unless interest rates go double figured again.

Meanwhile, the Spring mini boom is already underway but that doesn't mean big price increases - it just means houses are selling in sensible times, and at near or at asking prices.

:lol::lol::lol:

Keep taking the tablets, love ;)

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My guess is that in the south and the midlands we might well see a stagnant market with slowly decreasing house prices in 2006 [maybe 2 - 4%].

For house prices to drop by any larger amount we need a change in public sentiment, media coverage, PM and a nudge upwards on interest rates.

The tide is turning now but we need Scotland and Northern Ireland to complete their price hikes before the media will get interested.

I'm going to keep saving.

HD

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Well I viewed at house a few months ago which was on for £249k, it sold for £227k.!! So I think prices are dropping. Now a house in the same row has come up at £299k. I think just crazy it won't sell but guess what its under offer.!!!!. Its a most odd time.

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I couldn't give a flying ****** as to what the media report. I have enough common sense to realise that the housing market is about to fall.

I see people people posting on these forums saying "prices in my area are rising". I'll grant them that, there are some areas that prices have gone up. But take away the few hotspots of activity and what do do see? Gloom setting in. More houses with For Sale than Sold on them.

This weekend I took my motorbike over the pennines into Manchester and guess what I saw? A lot more For Sale signs up. Ancedotal is much more powerful to me than the media. I still go for 2006/2007 HPC

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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