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Unemployment Shoots Up

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As a regular HPC reader, you probably already know that unemployment rises sharply at the end of a housing boom. All those easy jobs disappear, and life starts getting tough.

The low unemployment=high house prices argument is just such a load of old tosh.

Well here's a little information from our friends at the Office of National Statistics...

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12

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I cannot see any reason whatsoever why there will not be a significant drop in house prices in 2006. With the trend in umemployment up, bankruptcies and reposession orders up, debt levels way up, IR up (probably), company liquidations up, oil and gas prices up, number of properties coming on the market up, time on the market going up there must be a crash.

What, other than opinion, is holding the property market up at such a historically unsustainable level?

Gordon's "miracle?" I think not.

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unemployment is going up because the government are getting people off incapacity benefit and trying to get them back into work.

In reality the people who were moved onto incapacity benefit to bring the unemployment level down are now being moved back onto jobseakers to mask the real rising unemployment rate.

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unemployment is going up because the government are getting people off incapacity benefit and trying to get them back into work.

In reality the people who were moved onto incapacity benefit to bring the unemployment level down are now being moved back onto jobseakers to mask the real rising unemployment rate.

rubbish

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rubbish

I have to agree. Unemployment is rising as a result of consumers no longer having money they can afford to spend. This has led to a slowdown in the economy and factories to close. The credit mountain (Gordon Brown's "miracle economy) has hit the ceiling and can go no higher.

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I have to agree. Unemployment is rising as a result of consumers no longer having money they can afford to spend. This has led to a slowdown in the economy and factories to close. The credit mountain (Gordon Brown's "miracle economy) has hit the ceiling and can go no higher.

It would be interesting to see the incapacity benefit figures mind!

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I have to agree. Unemployment is rising as a result of consumers no longer having money they can afford to spend. This has led to a slowdown in the economy and factories to close. The credit mountain (Gordon Brown's "miracle economy) has hit the ceiling and can go no higher.

Sorry it seems you didnt detect the sarcasm in the first setence, if you bothered to read the rest of my post you would have seen that i mentioned "the real rising unemployment rate"

my post was to point out one of the possible excuses our current govt could come up with when unemployment starts rocketting

next time i wont bother

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Sorry it seems you didnt detect the sarcasm in the first setence, if you bothered to read the rest of my post you would have seen that i mentioned "the real rising unemployment rate"

my post was to point out one of the possible excuses our current govt could come up with when unemployment starts rocketting

next time i wont bother

Sorry, didn't spot the sarcasm! :)

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Sorry it seems you didnt detect the sarcasm in the first setence, if you bothered to read the rest of my post you would have seen that i mentioned "the real rising unemployment rate"

my post was to point out one of the possible excuses our current govt could come up with when unemployment starts rocketting

next time i wont bother

I was right there with you davep24, keep up the sarcasm.

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Sarcasm is the highest form of whit IMPO!!!

Even better when people miss it :lol::lol:

Had a bad week Realistbear? (just joshing - going out tonight and as I don't normally get out much I'm a bit over-excited :lol: )

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Unemployment data for the 4th of '05 is out on the 15th Feb. More bad news I suspect, judging by all the news of job losses that OnlyMe and others have been find.

Recession by the end of the year I fear.

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Sarcasm is the highest form of whit IMPO!!!

Even better when people miss it :lol::lol:

I think you'll find that the correct quote is

"Sarcasm is the highest form of intelligence, and the LOWEST form of wit !

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Things are starting to look rather grim aren't they?

My mum told me today that the shop she does the book keeping for (an antique furniture store) has, over the last 4 months, seen its sales volume drop 70%!!!

Staff there are having their hours cut and it is being run on a skeleton crew.

Also, during the week my company announced that it will be making compulsary redundancies - I know I'm not up for the chop YET but things are really starting to unravel fast! Thankfully I have savings and I'm debt free if I get the chop :)

I know alot of people here were hoping for the crash to begin last year, but we didn't see the falls we were hoping for. BUT it seems now, looking back, that all the ground work has been done and everything is in place. It was almost "expected" last year, and the bulls really believe the soft landing has been achieved, and are complacent because of it - it actually feels like a recession / hpc is possible in 2006, and is close.It would be unexpected to the masses. Like the calm before a storm - you can feel something is about to happen.

It was written on here once that the recession / hpc is like a rollercoaster. You slowly travel to the top, reach the summit, then all hell breaks loose!!

I think we've just started the descent, and picking up some speed now!!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

hpc is possible in 2006, and is close.It would be unexpected to the masses. Like the calm before a storm - you can feel something is about to happen.

The trough should be reached by 2010 to 2011.

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I take any statistics on employment levels with a pinch of salt.

There are ways to skew the figures either way.

For example I could quote you the statistic that the number of people in EMPLOYMENT has gone UP YOY as well.

The number of people in employment was 28.76 million, down 22,000 over the quarter but up 221,000 over the year.

This means there are more workers/taxpayers than last year.

Then again I suppose it depends what you mean by 'employed'

Some of those 221,000 are probably better described as unemployed than employed. They are probably on some crappy scheme that makes the figures look better.

Also, don't forget the impact of the minimum wage.

This has the downside that a lot of firms can't afford to pay it during lean spells. Therefore unemployment tends to rise because of it and the business suffers a loss too.

But then again, staff on minimum wage can't afford a house anyway. So any effects of this are longer term rather than immediate on overall house sales/prices.

Probably best to ignore small changes in official employment stats in other words...

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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With larger numbers of employees on short term contracts, it's possible that unemployment could rise quietly and without many headline grabbing job losses. I've had quite a few CVs sent to me over the last couple of months from redundant IT workers in the Thames valley - that's never happened before. Outsourced I suspect.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
There are ways to skew the figures either way.

Are there really WaP?

:lol::lol::lol:

Sorry but I'm not finished yet.

:lol::lol::lol:

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I cannot see any reason whatsoever why there will not be a significant drop in house prices in 2006. With the trend in umemployment up, bankruptcies and reposession orders up, debt levels way up, IR up (probably), company liquidations up, oil and gas prices up, number of properties coming on the market up, time on the market going up there must be a crash.

What, other than opinion, is holding the property market up at such a historically unsustainable level?

Gordon's "miracle?" I think not.

No. If anything IRs will be dropping. Yes, oil & gas are up but I think we are at the point where it is more deflationary than inflationary. In other words, people will probably start spending even less in the shops.

...number of properties coming on the market up, time on the market going up...

yes but, try telling a vendor this, unless they are being forced to sell (and most aren't) they will probably hang on.

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Guest X-QUORK

I work for a large UK telecoms company and a large number of our short term contract staff are about to get the chop, so that seems to follow the same trend as the IT people Bear Goggles refers to.

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I live near Evesham in the W Midlands and there has been a large number of shops closing over the past few weeks following desperate 50-70% sales. I wonder how long it will take for the VIs to recognise that we are in a recession and that HPI is dead?

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unemployment is going up because the government are getting people off incapacity benefit and trying to get them back into work.

In reality the people who were moved onto incapacity benefit to bring the unemployment level down are now being moved back onto jobseakers to mask the real rising unemployment rate.

Hes not far from it but there is a major reason why the figures jumped after September.

People who were on Jobseekers were sent on New Deal training schemes which then removed them from the unemployment figures for either 13 or 26 weeks depending on their circumstances. The reason they were removed was they would not be looking for work during this training time. Although they were still receiving Jobseekers they were removed from the figures and their P45 returned. As soon as they finished the course their course they had a rapid reclaim and rejoined the figures.

In September last year the Government cancelled all New Deal schemes without any warning to either the Jobcentres or Training providers. Some very reduced schemes will start from about June this year so expect to see the numbers fall artificially once again.

I know this from having the misfortune of working on one of these schemes.

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I live near Evesham in the W Midlands and there has been a large number of shops closing over the past few weeks following desperate 50-70% sales. I wonder how long it will take for the VIs to recognise that we are in a recession and that HPI is dead?

Very big health club called Healthland in Wolverhampton - 2 stories, swimming pool, 1000's of members. Went bust 2 days ago. Now I've got a genuine excuse for not going.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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