Property Lion June 2021

[zugzwang]

Just now, adarmo said:

 No it isn't. At all. 

Borrowing isn't a cost is the first thing to say. Borrowing is borrowing. 

What is the actual expense to the nation of supporting mad house prices?

Yes, it is. The Tory bois have been promising to balance the budget since 2015. Hammond claimed to have done so in 2017/18 but all he did was outsource the subsidy operation to the Bank of England.

[Twenty Something]

1 hour ago, adarmo said:

 My main regret is not focusing on what i wanted to do education and career wise sooner. If i had is have graduated 2003 and probably been able to buy a house then. Instead it was 14 years later. I'd have half paid a mortgage in that time and not had general prices race away. 

All that said i don't see how 10% yoy can continue. 

Agree with you completely. I can’t see how the current boom can continue, and at some point it will reverse. It’s a question of when that point is though, and I am perhaps alone on here / in a small minority in thinking that it is still many years away 2025 - 2030 sort of range. Your point about time in the market not timing the market is as relevant today as it’s always been. 

[Si1]

11 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

 it is still many years away 2025 - 2030 sort of range. 

I agree. There could be some softness post covid but the medium term there is still room for stimulus.

[AThirdWay]

17 hours ago, sta100 said:

Ah I see, you're the guy that comes here to remind everyone how wrong they were a year ago. Keep up the good work, very noble.

In fairness, it's a better track record than accepting you were wrong, several times, on one thread!

[adarmo]

21 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Yes, it is. The Tory bois have been promising to balance the budget since 2015. Hammond claimed to have done so in 2017/18 but all he did was outsource the subsidy operation to the Bank of England.

What is yes it is? Borrowing is a cost?

Nope. 

You are stating that all borrowing relates to gov support for house prices. 

[zugzwang]

42 minutes ago, adarmo said:

What is yes it is? Borrowing is a cost?

Nope. 

You are stating that all borrowing relates to gov support for house prices. 

 

Sure, a chunk's been spunked on vanity projects like HS2, Cross Rail and the 2012 Olympic Games - and latterly in the UK's tatty and disorganised response to Covid-19 - but where else has the money gone? Not on the UK's threadbare public services. Not on public sector pay. Not on a nationwide program of general needs social housing.

No, the extraordinary sums that have been borrowed since 2009 have been used almost in their entirety to provide a rolling bailout and profiteering opportunity for the City of London, the construction industry and three million private landlords.

[Twenty Something]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

 

Sure, a chunk's been spunked on vanity projects like HS2, Cross Rail and the 2012 Olympic Games - and latterly in the UK's tatty and disorganised response to Covid-19 - but where else has the money gone? Not on the UK's threadbare public services. Not on public sector pay. Not on a nationwide program of general needs social housing.

No, the extraordinary sums that have been borrowed since 2009 have been used almost in their entirety to provide a rolling bailout and profiteering opportunity for the City of London, the construction industry and three million private landlords.

Except when you search for data it doesn’t back you up. Where are you drawing your conclusions from that the government has blown most of its budget on propping up housing? What I can find (below) shows housing as being a very small part of overall expenditure. Now I’m sure you feel that there are all sorts of other things that go unrecorded, but can you show any sort of evidence for your claims as asked for above? 

[Twenty Something]

And yup I know that’s not borrowing per se and is budget, but is there anything that spells out how the borrowed money has been spent other than some high level figures on supporting jobs, bailing out the airlines etc. 
 

I can find the below which shows for the C19 crisis it’s not really all been spent on housing. In fact If anything most of it has been spent on public services. 

Edited June 11, 2021 by Twenty Something

[msi]

46 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

And yup I know that’s not borrowing per se and is budget, but is there anything that spells out how the borrowed money has been spent other than some high level figures on supporting jobs, bailing out the airlines etc. 
 

I can find the below which shows for the C19 crisis it’s not really all been spent on housing. In fact If anything most of it has been spent on public services. 

Misleading graph.  Those 'public services' include

70Bn+ on PPE contracts ( to private suppliers, who just happen to be Tory mates)

30Bn+ on TrackNTrace ( to private companies, who just happen to be Tory mates)

 

Actual additional spend on NHS services circa 20Bn - so the 'Front Line' gets < £1 in £6 out of that lovely Blue Bar.

Source: COVID Spending

 

 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2021 by msi
Typos

[zugzwang]

2 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Except when you search for data it doesn’t back you up. Where are you drawing your conclusions from that the government has blown most of its budget on propping up housing? What I can find (below) shows housing as being a very small part of overall expenditure. Now I’m sure you feel that there are all sorts of other things that go unrecorded, but can you show any sort of evidence for your claims as asked for above? 

 

The 2020/21 budget included at least £60bn of furlough spending, a huge chunk of which has been consumed by the mortgage industry. There was also a £40bn increase in the social protection budget; most of that will have disappeared in rent. Debt interest of £56bn (none of which would have been incurred without the GFC). Housing and environment £32bn.

In addition, the Bank of England's asset purchase facility has done a huge amount of lifting. The TFS (2016-18) was a £127bn helicopter drop on City lenders and other financial institutions with love from Mark Carney. Aggregate drawings from its successor the TFSME (likewise, a helicopter drop) currently stand at £85bn. The Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme accounts for a further £20bn.

So that's £350bn in the last 4 years before we even begin to tally the fallout from 2008.

The NAO reported in 2011 that the UK govt had needed to raise £124bn in cash to cover its loans and share purchases over the preceding two years. A further £70bn was added to the national budget during that period in additional unemployment/housing benefit expenditure paid for partly by George Osborne's VAT hike.

I don't have a breakdown of the original Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) or what Help to Buy has cost in its various iterations but the sums are huge. There are something like £800bn of Gilts currently outstanding.

 

[Twenty Something]

So I think for both of the above, I can accept that there has undoubtedly been money spent on propping up various housing schemes. I just don't accept that it is the only thing that money has been spent on, or even that it is the majority of what money has been spent on. I also personally take the line that every politician is doing something to line their own pockets, labour, conservative, green whatever. Those in power have more ability to do so, but I was neither shocked nor bothered that contracts had gone to mates of whoever - as it was, as will it always be. Cash for honours under labour in 2006, Jowellgate the year or so before, Cameron and his 60 million Saudi gig, the Blairs and their enormous BTL property empire. 

All I'm saying is there are far wider considerations than the property market - jobs, economy, housing yes, and so on. Who knows what the plan is, and that probably goes for those enacting it too.

[sta100]

On 6/9/2021 at 10:33 PM, Twenty Something said:

You’re certainly very angry about house prices given you are someone who has 700 grand of cash in the bank and a hugely successful business. Some might say suspiciously angry. 
 

I’m going to pay my house off with a mortgage just like many others in this country. <semi sarcasm>

Why would I not be angry about it? I stick my money into overpriced property, or take my pick from volatile/overpriced assets. Meanwhile the costs to service my business go up and my margins become lower. The country is the wrong way up and nothing good will come of it. What's the incentive to continue with my business?

If I feel f*cked how does the rest of the country get by?

[Twenty Something]

4 hours ago, sta100 said:

Why would I not be angry about it? I stick my money into overpriced property, or take my pick from volatile/overpriced assets. Meanwhile the costs to service my business go up and my margins become lower. The country is the wrong way up and nothing good will come of it. What's the incentive to continue with my business?

If I feel f*cked how does the rest of the country get by?

I would imagine the incentive to carry on with your business is that it has made you three quarters of a million quid in cash? Seems a little strange to question why you should carry on if you are that successful? Just as it seems a little strange to be quite so angry about house prices given that you could buy in cash pretty much anywhere you want barring a few exclusive postcodes. Indeed, if your reality is the same as that which you post on here, I would suggest that the vast majority of people would be quite the opposite to you - very happy and grateful that they are in a reasonably exclusive group of high net worth individuals. 

Now of course you are one of many on this site who claim to have vast sums of money in stocks, shares, cash etc etc, and who also like to point out you are sticking a finger up to the property owning classes and bankers by not buying into their 'Ponzi scheme'. But assuming we take you at face value, that's a choice you are making rather than an enforced way of living. If you had a low income job and were working 14 hours a day 7 days a week, and seeing all your money swallowed by London rents then yes, I would understand a large amount of anger and frustration. This is the situation that some of my team members are in at work, and they live hand to mouth each month as they have little / no spare cash to do anything with. If however you are in a position whereby you could buy a decent property in most of the country for half of your cash wealth, and then still have £350k in reserve just incase, then I still don't understand why you are so angry. 

[sta100]

10 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

I would imagine the incentive to carry on with your business is that it has made you three quarters of a million quid in cash? Seems a little strange to question why you should carry on if you are that successful? Just as it seems a little strange to be quite so angry about house prices given that you could buy in cash pretty much anywhere you want barring a few exclusive postcodes. Indeed, if your reality is the same as that which you post on here, I would suggest that the vast majority of people would be quite the opposite to you - very happy and grateful that they are in a reasonably exclusive group of high net worth individuals. 

Now of course you are one of many on this site who claim to have vast sums of money in stocks, shares, cash etc etc, and who also like to point out you are sticking a finger up to the property owning classes and bankers by not buying into their 'Ponzi scheme'. But assuming we take you at face value, that's a choice you are making rather than an enforced way of living. If you had a low income job and were working 14 hours a day 7 days a week, and seeing all your money swallowed by London rents then yes, I would understand a large amount of anger and frustration. This is the situation that some of my team members are in at work, and they live hand to mouth each month as they have little / no spare cash to do anything with. If however you are in a position whereby you could buy a decent property in most of the country for half of your cash wealth, and then still have £350k in reserve just incase, then I still don't understand why you are so angry. 

What are you on about?

I made a lot of money from property

I made a lot from my business

Not buying into the ponzi scheme? I just bought another house.

It's your generation that's screwed you muppet.

Just because you place a value on wealth doesn't mean that other people don't.

You have no idea why I'm angry about it because you're not wealthy.

 

[sta100]

Let me put it another way for you

If someone robs a tenner off you, do you feel happy because they didn't nab 40 quid?

Or do you feel violated and angry that they robbed you

What do you think is actually happening right now?

 

[Twenty Something]

3 hours ago, sta100 said:

What are you on about?

I made a lot of money from property

I made a lot from my business

Not buying into the ponzi scheme? I just bought another house.

It's your generation that's screwed you muppet.

Just because you place a value on wealth doesn't mean that other people don't.

You have no idea why I'm angry about it because you're not wealthy.

 

Gonna keep this short for you...

What is my generation? 

So you have 700k cash and a house, and then however much extra lying around? And you're still this angry?

I do place a value on wealth yes. Most people do. Not sure that sentence makes any sense? Take a deep breath and give it another go?

As per the above, no I don't have an idea why you're so angry, but angry you most certainly are. Raging angry. Instead of chucking insults around you could have a go at explaining why you're so angry so that the underclass such as myself can understand? (Little bit of sarcasm there FYI).

 

Then onto the second post to keep it all together....

What is the tenner and what is the forty quid? Is the tenner the extra that you feel property is overpriced by at the moment? In that case I am happy that I have the £30 (equity?) that I wouldn't have otherwise had in my pocket without having a mortgage on a home, and in the future that £30 I bet you will be worth at least £60, so I have in the grand scheme of things lost a tenner, but gained £50? I'm probably pretty happy depending on whether or not knives and guns were involved and I'm left with PTSD? Has the government, sorry the mugger forced me to carry £40 in my pocket, or have I carried it at my own free will? What if I had put that £40 into a business and it was one of the 80% that fail in year 1? Would I be more upset at having £0 in my pocket? 

What if actually I just like the feeling of the £40 in my pocket and don't really care about losing a tenner in the supermarket or on some scratch cards? What if having the £30 that I'm left with just makes me feel warm and fluffy inside so I don't burst a blood vessel trying to 'win the internet'?

 

 

 

[sta100]

1 hour ago, Twenty Something said:

Gonna keep this short for you...

What is my generation? 

So you have 700k cash and a house, and then however much extra lying around? And you're still this angry?

I do place a value on wealth yes. Most people do. Not sure that sentence makes any sense? Take a deep breath and give it another go?

As per the above, no I don't have an idea why you're so angry, but angry you most certainly are. Raging angry. Instead of chucking insults around you could have a go at explaining why you're so angry so that the underclass such as myself can understand? (Little bit of sarcasm there FYI).

 

Then onto the second post to keep it all together....

What is the tenner and what is the forty quid? Is the tenner the extra that you feel property is overpriced by at the moment? In that case I am happy that I have the £30 (equity?) that I wouldn't have otherwise had in my pocket without having a mortgage on a home, and in the future that £30 I bet you will be worth at least £60, so I have in the grand scheme of things lost a tenner, but gained £50? I'm probably pretty happy depending on whether or not knives and guns were involved and I'm left with PTSD? Has the government, sorry the mugger forced me to carry £40 in my pocket, or have I carried it at my own free will? What if I had put that £40 into a business and it was one of the 80% that fail in year 1? Would I be more upset at having £0 in my pocket? 

What if actually I just like the feeling of the £40 in my pocket and don't really care about losing a tenner in the supermarket or on some scratch cards? What if having the £30 that I'm left with just makes me feel warm and fluffy inside so I don't burst a blood vessel trying to 'win the internet'?

 

 

 

The tenner is devaluation of the  cash in my business which is there to protect the business, that instead has been given away for cheap mortgages for the likes of yourself.

Wind down the business, get the cash out at 10% tax, stop bothering, because what's the point.

 

 

[sta100]

So yeah basically I'm angry because there is no system in which to operate anymore.

Which is a natural emotion.

The reason I've had a successful business is because I'm honest with myself.

Burying your head in the sand a singing la la la like yourself leads to trouble.

 

 

[Twenty Something]

44 minutes ago, sta100 said:

So yeah basically I'm angry because there is no system in which to operate anymore.

Which is a natural emotion.

The reason I've had a successful business is because I'm honest with myself.

Burying your head in the sand a singing la la la like yourself leads to trouble.

 

 

If you want to wind your business down because it’s not worth it anymore then nobody is going to stand in your way. One of your competitors will gladly pick up the slack I’m sure. That’s capitalism for you, nobody is forcing you to do something. 
 

As for burying my head in the sand? Based on what? I’m fully aware houses could drop in price, I’ve said as much many times on here. I’m cognisant that QE has happened, debt has increased and so on so forth. You’ appear to just be angry fullstop. Nothing you’ve put above really makes any sense. Lots of vagaries and then your usual make something up and go ha as per earlier in this thread. Are you able to construct a coherent argument? If you want to provide specifics of my head burying then we can engage in a grounded debate. If you’re just going to continue with being childish then there is little point. 
 

 

[yodigo]

16 hours ago, sta100 said:

So yeah basically I'm angry because there is no system in which to operate anymore.

Which is a natural emotion.

The reason I've had a successful business is because I'm honest with myself.

Burying your head in the sand a singing la la la like yourself leads to trouble.

 

 

You should go on A Place in the Sun, Escape to the Country, or (cough, cough) Location, Location Location, then you can be the twonk that rejects a lovely detached house because the kitchen isn't "open plan", or the bedroom isn't the size of a Saudi Prince's, or 3 acres just isn't enough for your (non-existent wannabe) horse.

Or you could live in a 2 bed Victorian terrace with neighbour noises.

[sta100]

On 6/12/2021 at 9:58 PM, Twenty Something said:

If you want to wind your business down because it’s not worth it anymore then nobody is going to stand in your way. One of your competitors will gladly pick up the slack I’m sure. That’s capitalism for you, nobody is forcing you to do something. 
 

As for burying my head in the sand? Based on what? I’m fully aware houses could drop in price, I’ve said as much many times on here. I’m cognisant that QE has happened, debt has increased and so on so forth. You’ appear to just be angry fullstop. Nothing you’ve put above really makes any sense. Lots of vagaries and then your usual make something up and go ha as per earlier in this thread. Are you able to construct a coherent argument? If you want to provide specifics of my head burying then we can engage in a grounded debate. If you’re just going to continue with being childish then there is little point. 
 

 

House prices dropping in price? Are you serious?

Try mass unemployment,  social unrest, no ability to get medical attention. Just for a start. Been banging on about this since last year, and momentum is building. House prices are the least of the worries. You're so economically illiterate you don't understand the implications when an Entrepreneur tells you it makes no sense to run a business in this country anymore, and I am far from alone in this.

No I'm not angry fullstop, life is good, I'm angry about this situation and I think you're a tool.

[sta100]

On 6/12/2021 at 9:58 PM, Twenty Something said:

 If you want to provide specifics of my head burying

 

 

Try going on an hpc forum telling everyone you're buying a house and then getting annoyed when a lot of people give you an opinion you don't like,and then getting upset because they're all massively wealthier than you.

[sta100]

11 hours ago, yodigo said:

You should go on A Place in the Sun, Escape to the Country, or (cough, cough) Location, Location Location, then you can be the twonk that rejects a lovely detached house because the kitchen isn't "open plan", or the bedroom isn't the size of a Saudi Prince's, or 3 acres just isn't enough for your (non-existent wannabe) horse.

That sounds like a good idea, I'm going to need a new way of filling my time that involves something completely pointless and unproductive to fit in with the new normal.

[Twenty Something]

8 hours ago, sta100 said:

House prices dropping in price? Are you serious?

Try mass unemployment,  social unrest, no ability to get medical attention. Just for a start. Been banging on about this since last year, and momentum is building. House prices are the least of the worries. You're so economically illiterate you don't understand the implications when an Entrepreneur tells you it makes no sense to run a business in this country anymore, and I am far from alone in this.

No I'm not angry fullstop, life is good, I'm angry about this situation and I think you're a tool.

So you remain unable to create a coherent argument, and your narrative is I’m an entrepreneur and I’m telling you this so you’d better believe it as I’m right and you’re wrong? And of course being so incapable of creating any sort of argument, out you come with the insults again because that strengthens your argument how? What sort of timescale does your Armageddon have where healthcare collapses and people are rioting on the streets? Or should I not question the validity of that because you said so and you’re an entrepreneur and stuff? 
 

As for the second bit, I don’t know if you are intentionally being ironic (I doubt it), but there is only one person in this dialogue getting upset and chucking insults around because someone disagrees with them, and it’s not me. As for wealth, again, I’d ask you to point me to the post I’ve made where I’ve got upset because some bloke on the internet is (supposedly) richer than I am. You can’t can you? You’ve got numerous people laughing at you on this thread, but you are going to win the internet if it’s the last thing you do…

[sta100]

On 6/14/2021 at 10:41 AM, Twenty Something said:

So you remain unable to create a coherent argument, and your narrative is I’m an entrepreneur and I’m telling you this so you’d better believe it as I’m right and you’re wrong? And of course being so incapable of creating any sort of argument, out you come with the insults again because that strengthens your argument how? What sort of timescale does your Armageddon have where healthcare collapses and people are rioting on the streets? Or should I not question the validity of that because you said so and you’re an entrepreneur and stuff? 
 

As for the second bit, I don’t know if you are intentionally being ironic (I doubt it), but there is only one person in this dialogue getting upset and chucking insults around because someone disagrees with them, and it’s not me. As for wealth, again, I’d ask you to point me to the post I’ve made where I’ve got upset because some bloke on the internet is (supposedly) richer than I am. You can’t can you? You’ve got numerous people laughing at you on this thread, but you are going to win the internet if it’s the last thing you do…

Do you get it now?

Do you?

Everyone else gets it now

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4697166-are-things-in-the-uk-as-bad-as-it-sounds-in-the-news