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Halifax May 2021 :9.5%


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4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Property Lion data out today....the market is ****ed.


Listing volumes plummeting, market is dead. 

See, thats what I see.

Sure, a few of the more expensive houses have transacted -properly sold.

Id guess that the SDT thang incentivising people to buy. Whetehr theyll regret is later is another thing.

But the numbers are on the floor.

Theres so little selling, just sat in chains.

 

 

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So what happens on 30 June when the stamp duty holiday benefit is reduced and then on 30 September when it ends entirely.

Is this a mad panic which will subside in the autumn and winter - when many find rural living and 2 hour train journeys to office taxing. Or does the madness continue for a year or two yet?

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18 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

So what happens on 30 June when the stamp duty holiday benefit is reduced and then on 30 September when it ends entirely.

 

The 30th June deadline is already dead for new listings.  For older listings, some will still make that date.

Word on the street is that even if you sell now you wont make the 30th Sept deadline.

So effectively the stamp duty holiday is over...the market is on it's backside now.

The one thing that can revive it is lower prices.  MUCH lower prices.

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55 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

So what happens on 30 June when the stamp duty holiday benefit is reduced and then on 30 September when it ends entirely.

Is this a mad panic which will subside in the autumn and winter - when many find rural living and 2 hour train journeys to office taxing. Or does the madness continue for a year or two yet?

Well in Scotland they had a crack up boom after it ended up there. 

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31 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Well in Scotland they had a crack up boom after it ended up there. 

Our stamp duty changes only impacted the first couple of bandings - representing a maximum saving of about £1600 if I recall correctly.

Properties above 200k were still subject to the tax meaning a couple I know paid 20k last summer on something that was 450k.

So it’s not clear how big an impact that small saving has had on prices. 

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

...the market is on it's backside now.

Look I really want this to be true for the sake of the young uns, but a quick check on a mile radius of where we live shows several completions a month at 4x 1999 prices.  And this is true in Glos. where we used to live & Wanstead where lived on the week until recently.  How many locations do I need to check before I see this failed market?  Are leafy locations populated by managers, specialists, business owners etc. more resilient? I'm genuinely confused.  I understand why you expect collapse but I'm just not seeing it.

It does take a long time to exchange though.

Edited by hotblack42
Speling
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48 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

Look I really want this to be true for the sake of the young uns, but a quick check on a mile radius of where we live shows several completions a month at 4x 1999 prices.  And this is true in Glos. where we used to live & Wanstead where lived on the week until recently.  How many locations do I need to check before I see this failed market?  Are leafy locations populated by managers, specialists, business owners etc. more resilient? I'm genuinely confused.  I understand why you expect collapse but I'm just not seeing it.

It does take a long time to exchange though.

It's as sure as the sun coming up tomorrow - a new month's figures show that property continues its upward trajectory and the count of nowhere and property lion are seeing huge falls, market dead, no listings etc etc. I honestly don't know why people even engage with him anymore? 

From Feb 2021 - listings at their lowest volume ever, people on here have noticed that there is nothing coming to the market, chuckle chuckle....

 

I told you so version 2 from October of 2020 - numbers have been crunched, the market has stalled, summer of 2020 is the peak of the market, it's all downhill from here. Always of course lots of anecdotes, I know a teacher who this, I know a gardener who that, I know an estate agent who the other. 

 

July 2019 - Predicting a fall of 15% real terms by April 2020. Property lion says this, property lion says that, we could see 20% down by April - oh but yes you're right, you've always predicted that prices will go up. Anyone else confused? 

 

I could go on. It's sadly what happens when you long with every sinew of your being for something to happen and it repeatedly doesn't. Like a broken clock, he will eventually be right, and prices will fall. There will then be a load of self-congratulating posts about how he called it, and all those idiot trolls are quiet now. How many years / decades will that time be from here however? I have a horrible recollection that this bloke claims to be engaged in some sort of financial services / advisor job too. Oh ye gods.

Meanwhile from a couple of weeks ago:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-9616199/Property-sales-rise-highest-level-2007-market-peak-says-Zoopla.html

"Property sales of 1.5million would mark 2021 down as not just the most active market since the peak that preceded the financial crisis, but also one of the 10 busiest years since 1959."

But no, friends have been spoken to, estate agents have been questioned en mass, property lion says it's all lies and the market is stalling, seeing it on the ground, chuckle chuckle blah blah blah. And then from the last discourse we had in April about March's Halifax figures - guess what @TheCountOfNowhere's prediction was?

"I'm certainly saying now that we'll see prices fall, the prices are extreme now and there will be no economic bounce, any inflation will destroy peoples ability to pay their debts."

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/238645-halifax-mar-21/&do=findComment&comment=1103720278

In all seriousness, why do people engage with this? Is it just confirmation bias? I can understand that to an extent, as I can get that there is justified anger about what is going on at present, but I would suggest you all need to go and find yourselves a new messiah.

Edited by Twenty Something
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1 hour ago, Twenty Something said:

It's as sure as the sun coming up tomorrow - a new month's figures show that property continues its upward trajectory and the count of nowhere and property lion are seeing huge falls, market dead, no listings etc etc. I honestly don't know why people even engage with him anymore? 

From Feb 2021 - listings at their lowest volume ever, people on here have noticed that there is nothing coming to the market, chuckle chuckle....

 

I told you so version 2 from October of 2020 - numbers have been crunched, the market has stalled, summer of 2020 is the peak of the market, it's all downhill from here. Always of course lots of anecdotes, I know a teacher who this, I know a gardener who that, I know an estate agent who the other. 

 

July 2019 - Predicting a fall of 15% real terms by April 2020. Property lion says this, property lion says that, we could see 20% down by April - oh but yes you're right, you've always predicted that prices will go up. Anyone else confused? 

 

I could go on. It's sadly what happens when you long with every sinew of your being for something to happen and it repeatedly doesn't. Like a broken clock, he will eventually be right, and prices will fall. There will then be a load of self-congratulating posts about how he called it, and all those idiot trolls are quiet now. How many years / decades will that time be from here however? I have a horrible recollection that this bloke claims to be engaged in some sort of financial services / advisor job too. Oh ye gods.

Meanwhile from a couple of weeks ago:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-9616199/Property-sales-rise-highest-level-2007-market-peak-says-Zoopla.html

"Property sales of 1.5million would mark 2021 down as not just the most active market since the peak that preceded the financial crisis, but also one of the 10 busiest years since 1959."

But no, friends have been spoken to, estate agents have been questioned en mass, property lion says it's all lies and the market is stalling, seeing it on the ground, chuckle chuckle blah blah blah. And then from the last discourse we had in April about March's Halifax figures - guess what @TheCountOfNowhere's prediction was?

"I'm certainly saying now that we'll see prices fall, the prices are extreme now and there will be no economic bounce, any inflation will destroy peoples ability to pay their debts."

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/238645-halifax-mar-21/&do=findComment&comment=1103720278

In all seriousness, why do people engage with this? Is it just confirmation bias? I can understand that to an extent, as I can get that there is justified anger about what is going on at present, but I would suggest you all need to go and find yourselves a new messiah.

He's also always one post away from moving to France. 🤣

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2 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

Look I really want this to be true for the sake of the young uns, but a quick check on a mile radius of where we live shows several completions a month at 4x 1999 prices.  And this is true in Glos. where we used to live & Wanstead where lived on the week until recently.  How many locations do I need to check before I see this failed market?  Are leafy locations populated by managers, specialists, business owners etc. more resilient? I'm genuinely confused.  I understand why you expect collapse but I'm just not seeing it.

It does take a long time to exchange though.

I never said I expected  collapse, I said it's on it's backside.

The housing market as was is dead, it's being fueled by an ever decreasing sub prime debt/ponzi MEWing/Criminal tory schemes fuelled greedy/desperate/scared idiots. Those 4x 1999 prices are a bargain if you were handed several hundred 1000s of £ of free money in London, doesn't matter that no one working can actually afford to buy them.

The housing market's not going to collapse now until the £ collapses, or mortgage rates are forced up and then it'll most likely be in real terms.  

I'm sure you're sure of what you are seeing but economic reality/real reality says this market is a contrived fraud.

The only way it can get  back to any normality is an all out collapse of something, they're not going to let nominal prices fall so expect a currency problem.

It's mental.

It's predictable

It's terrifying

But whatever it is, please dont put words in my mouth.

If you look at the property lion thread you can clearly see the number of properties all around the country up for sale has collapsed, apart from London, where people are desperately trying to sell and join MSM propaganda led escape to the over priced country.

 

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I never said I expected  collapse, I said it's on it's backside.

From barely six days ago:

 

 Infact, searching for the word 'Collapse' and your username shows 1,727 results, but you have never said that you expect a collapse of course and it's all words being put into your mouth 🤣

Edited by Twenty Something
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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I never said I expected  collapse, I said it's on it's backside.

OK sorry for interpretation. I'll tread more carefully & avoid the 'C' word.

Perhaps where I look the market is about to be on its backside, or has been on it's backside and has got up again. I think it's the latter as many places that weren't shifting in 2018-2020 & have now sold for higher prices so we have to be honest - the greedy vendors who refused to haggle got it right.

Of course they have no real comprehension of why they were right. But they were right.

Concerning a currency problem, that might well happen (is already happening?) in the guise of selective payrises for sought after workers.  This happened in the 80s when financial & IT staff had what appeared to be huge payrises, but in reality they were being kept just ahead of inflation while the incomes of pensioners & workers in factories, health, retail & education steadily withered.

Edited by hotblack42
Punktuation
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25 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

OK sorry for interpretation. I'll tread more carefully & avoid the 'C' word.

Perhaps where I look the market is about to be on its backside, or has been on it's backside and has got up again. I think it's the latter as many places that weren't shifting in 2018-2020 & have now sold for higher prices so we have to be honest - the greedy vendors who refused to haggle got it right.

Of course they have no real comprehension of why they were right. But they were right.

Concerning a currency problem, that might well happen (is already happening?) in the guise of selective payrises for sought after workers.  This happened in the 80s when financial & IT staff had what appeared to be huge payrises, but in reality they were being kept just ahead of inflation while the incomes of pensioners & workers in factories, health, retail & education steadily withered.

the trouble is we generalise about the UK housing market as a whole but clearly we have several different markets now across the country but at the prices I see listed on RM ultimately the driving forced behind any large sales volumes has to be London/London salaries because the money is just not in those areas.    The NW/NE were booming 6 months ago, the NW has not started to fall even with drastically reduced inventory.  

The listing volumes have clearly collapsed by any measure now so what comes next is going to be very interesting.

Given the support/money/QE/Term Funding the tories have thrown at keeping up prices there can be no good end to this now either way, I'd hope even the selfish trolls can see that.

 

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25 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

the trouble is we generalise about the UK housing market as a whole but clearly we have several different markets now across the country but at the prices I see listed on RM ultimately the driving forced behind any large sales volumes has to be London/London salaries because the money is just not in those areas.    The NW/NE were booming 6 months ago, the NW has not started to fall even with drastically reduced inventory.  

The listing volumes have clearly collapsed by any measure now so what comes next is going to be very interesting.

Given the support/money/QE/Term Funding the tories have thrown at keeping up prices there can be no good end to this now either way, I'd hope even the selfish trolls can see that.

 

Even if people take that as fact, that's reduced supply...

If hanging around and waiting you'll be better off seeing high listing volumes as people panic and forced to sell..

Edited by captainb
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