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I call the top…I exchanged contracts today.


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Having not bought a home in the UK since 1997 (sold in 2003 then moved to Canada in 2011 where I bought a lovely huge house for peanuts), I have bought a home in the UK. I got something at a 2019 price. I still expect to see 10% or more knocked off, but so be it. I found a home that I love, that I can afford, that will be highly desirable once we have renovated it, so that is that. 

So being the last bear to cave, I now fully expect a housing apocalypse!

Edited by HovelinHove
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  • HovelinHove changed the title to I call the top…I exchanged contracts today.

I wish you and yours happiness in your new home. As long as you can continue to afford the mortgage payments, the 'value' does not matter.

(Even if, as I suspect, it will be higher two years by the end of 223 and not 50% lower, which is what I would prefer.) 

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What matters is you have somewhere that works for your life.  It's too hard calling the market with every prop being thrown at it.  Assuming you bought in 'Hove Actually', it's not a bad place.

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2 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

So being the last bear to cave, I now fully expect a housing apocalypse!

Not the last, but there can't be many left. After being given S21 notice and not being able to find another suitable rental in 6 months (south west), we have an offer accepted and hope to complete sometime in July. After seeing prices continue to rise throughout COVID we sadly concluded that, despite the damage to the wider economy and the insanity of it all, house prices are only going one way. With COVID delta third wave looming and the 30% discount scheme starting today it seems nothing will stop house prices (gov props) short of societal collapse.

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4 hours ago, Tenant4Life? said:

Not the last, but there can't be many left. After being given S21 notice and not being able to find another suitable rental in 6 months (south west), we have an offer accepted and hope to complete sometime in July. After seeing prices continue to rise throughout COVID we sadly concluded that, despite the damage to the wider economy and the insanity of it all, house prices are only going one way. With COVID delta third wave looming and the 30% discount scheme starting today it seems nothing will stop house prices (gov props) short of societal collapse.

Yes, the uncertainty of renting in the UK rental market is unpleasant. Congrats on your accepted offer, hope it all goes through well. The Tories have made it clear that they will do everything in their power to keep the market going up, and that is an important factor to consider as they are likely to be in power until the end of this decade.

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6 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Congrats, relax. The hard part is over. 

Yes…no more fear of being gazumped. However, we now have lots of renovation to get done. We have a reliable builder to project manage it, so not going to be too stressful hopefully.

Edited by HovelinHove
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6 hours ago, bearishonhouses said:

I wish you and yours happiness in your new home. As long as you can continue to afford the mortgage payments, the 'value' does not matter.

(Even if, as I suspect, it will be higher two years by the end of 223 and not 50% lower, which is what I would prefer.) 

After Sunak’s behaviour the past year, it is obvious that the number one economic imperative of the Tory party is to keep house prices rising, and while they may fail, unless there is massive forced selling then I think they will at the very least keep them close to current levels, even if they burn the pound in the process. I suspect in the event of rising redundancies we will see schemes in the future that transfer ownership of the properties to the banks or government backed rental corporations, with outstanding debts and shortfalls in rent payments underwritten by the taxpayer so the former owners can maintain the illusion of wealth and pay what they can until they get back on their feet. This should stop any significant massive crash, but I do suspect that we will see a 5-10% drop over the next year whatever. For me, paying max SD on 500k and nosebleed rents, a 10% drop is about the same as renting for another year, so I would gain nothing by holding out, especially as I know that I got it at a very good price (10% off Nov asking price and what it would have gone for in late 2019). 

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5 hours ago, msi said:

What matters is you have somewhere that works for your life.  It's too hard calling the market with every prop being thrown at it.  Assuming you bought in 'Hove Actually', it's not a bad place.

Agreed…no, can’t afford Hove, but only 5 miles away and can cycle there on bike paths in 30 mins, and I will be living in the downs national park, so very happy with the location.

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Greetings from down the road in Felpham.  Sounds like you exchanged quicker than us (6 months!).   You will have a lot of plates to spin with the renovation.  Even with a great builder taking to brunt of planning and co-ordination, it is very tiring and pressured to have to make simultaneous decisions about construction, drainage wiring, plumbing, lighting, floors, doors, tiling, a new kitchen, bathroom that you will have to live with for 10-50 years.  Also beware shortages - you might need to order pvc doors or a new cooker 8 weeks before you need them.

Avoid fancy new architectural features unless the existing structure makes it easy.  You will probably find that the underpinning, steelwork, non standard roof construction etc. will be unjustifiable, or just plain too expensive.  We abandoned an 18ft wide feature gable end window because we could build a big cabin in the garden and renovate the free standing garage for HALF the cost (and the kitchen will be much cheaper to heat without the "wow factor" vaulted ceiling).
All first world problems of course.  You will be very happy when you have an older place with all new services and appliances, and toasty warm in the winter.

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10 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

So being the last bear to cave, I now fully expect a housing apocalypse!

Thanks! I've been waiting for official confirmation of the top. Your sacrifice is appreciated.

I'm going to show your post to estate agents when they tell me bid over by 20% to "remain a viable potential buyer". I tell them Hovelinhove has called the top!

Crashy crashy time here we come.

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40 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

Greetings from down the road in Felpham.  Sounds like you exchanged quicker than us (6 months!).   You will have a lot of plates to spin with the renovation.  Even with a great builder taking to brunt of planning and co-ordination, it is very tiring and pressured to have to make simultaneous decisions about construction, drainage wiring, plumbing, lighting, floors, doors, tiling, a new kitchen, bathroom that you will have to live with for 10-50 years.  Also beware shortages - you might need to order pvc doors or a new cooker 8 weeks before you need them.

Avoid fancy new architectural features unless the existing structure makes it easy.  You will probably find that the underpinning, steelwork, non standard roof construction etc. will be unjustifiable, or just plain too expensive.  We abandoned an 18ft wide feature gable end window because we could build a big cabin in the garden and renovate the free standing garage for HALF the cost (and the kitchen will be much cheaper to heat without the "wow factor" vaulted ceiling).
All first world problems of course.  You will be very happy when you have an older place with all new services and appliances, and toasty warm in the winter.

Thanks for the tips and the warning. yes, I’m aware of the issues with supply chains. Also, your advise on keeping existing structure, something we recently decided and instead of a huge open plan kitchen diner we are going to have a well insulated tiled conservatory and keep the rooms divided. With the advent of so many WFH, more rooms are better, and it is cheaper too. We are lucky to be able to continue renting our current property, but at the same time it is money we’d rather be spending on the renovations, so at some point we will move in with the builders half finished.

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7 hours ago, winkie said:

Congratulations, keep paying for it as if it were rent, then turn around one day and it will be yours.;)

Who do you phone to get free repairs again?

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22 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

Having not bought a home in the UK since 1997 (sold in 2003 then moved to Canada in 2011 where I bought a lovely huge house for peanuts), I have bought a home in the UK. I got something at a 2019 price. I still expect to see 10% or more knocked off, but so be it. I found a home that I love, that I can afford, that will be highly desirable once we have renovated it, so that is that. 

So being the last bear to cave, I now fully expect a housing apocalypse!

Good. 

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On 6/5/2021 at 1:07 AM, Tenant4Life? said:

Not the last, but there can't be many left. After being given S21 notice and not being able to find another suitable rental in 6 months (south west), we have an offer accepted and hope to complete sometime in July. After seeing prices continue to rise throughout COVID we sadly concluded that, despite the damage to the wider economy and the insanity of it all, house prices are only going one way. With COVID delta third wave looming and the 30% discount scheme starting today it seems nothing will stop house prices (gov props) short of societal collapse.

This is a core driver that led me to purchasing a house recently which I didn't really want to do. Rental is sh1t.

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On 04/06/2021 at 22:40, HovelinHove said:

Having not bought a home in the UK since 1997 (sold in 2003 then moved to Canada in 2011 where I bought a lovely huge house for peanuts), I have bought a home in the UK. I got something at a 2019 price. I still expect to see 10% or more knocked off, but so be it. I found a home that I love, that I can afford, that will be highly desirable once we have renovated it, so that is that. 

So being the last bear to cave, I now fully expect a housing apocalypse!

Some ‘Bullish’ responses around the fact the government will do everything in their power etc….house price crashes occur when the natural flow is beyond the power of government, like trying to stop the tide coming in.

So i like the initial post….yep you have done it, yep you expect a crash, yep if that happens you will live with it and bought as well as you could in a balmy market. And I think that’s the absolute right attitude.

Many of those near us who are buying now and expecting further market rises have bought carelessly and whilst the market may well catch them up…if the market evens softens slightly they are way way over.

Those (like you) who are tired of waiting and decided to take the step and are expecting the worst are far more likely to have tried to buy some value and protect against potential falls. You may have bought at the top but with some value you can often do ‘okay’ even in a falling market.

My son bought for £248k an extended house over Christmas and exchanged end of March….in summer these were £275k and beyond unextended and they are again now. The odd example at £325k with wood burner and grey curtains 🤦🏻‍♂️.

These others buyers may well be lucky if the market rises but even a removal of froth and no fall will see £250k for extended and £225k unextended. For some that’s a wasted opportunity.

You have done the right thing for you….and expecting not to do well is the right mentality. I hope however will the prudence you have taken and the renovations you actually do very well 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
 

 

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11 hours ago, sta100 said:

This is a core driver that led me to purchasing a house recently which I didn't really want to do. Rental is sh1t.

Amen to that. Heating is shite, we can't decorate or install a dishwasher, the landlord thinks the garage is their personal storage and the agent doesn't give a monkeys as long as they get 10%. Having said that there is hope on the horizon. Ending Section 21 will be a massive change (albeit with a large amount of upheval for renting families) but can't see it happening this parliament. COVID is the perfect excuse to drag their heels.

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On 06/06/2021 at 15:38, Pop321 said:

Some ‘Bullish’ responses around the fact the government will do everything in their power etc….house price crashes occur when the natural flow is beyond the power of government, like trying to stop the tide coming in.

So i like the initial post….yep you have done it, yep you expect a crash, yep if that happens you will live with it and bought as well as you could in a balmy market. And I think that’s the absolute right attitude.

Many of those near us who are buying now and expecting further market rises have bought carelessly and whilst the market may well catch them up…if the market evens softens slightly they are way way over.

Those (like you) who are tired of waiting and decided to take the step and are expecting the worst are far more likely to have tried to buy some value and protect against potential falls. You may have bought at the top but with some value you can often do ‘okay’ even in a falling market.

My son bought for £248k an extended house over Christmas and exchanged end of March….in summer these were £275k and beyond unextended and they are again now. The odd example at £325k with wood burner and grey curtains 🤦🏻‍♂️.

These others buyers may well be lucky if the market rises but even a removal of froth and no fall will see £250k for extended and £225k unextended. For some that’s a wasted opportunity.

You have done the right thing for you….and expecting not to do well is the right mentality. I hope however will the prudence you have taken and the renovations you actually do very well 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
 

 

Thank you. Yes, I wish I was buying with more confidence in the market, but I am sufficiently confident about the house, location, and personal circumstances to take the risk.

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On 05/06/2021 at 05:53, HovelinHove said:

For me, paying max SD on 500k and nosebleed rents, a 10% drop is about the same as renting for another year, so I would gain nothing by holding out, 

Very good point. And congrats.

I completed a few months back after a few years out of the market and after taking advantage of the full SD cut it felt good telling my nightmare landlord where to go. Maybe I got unlucky with my last landlord but after that renting experience I wouldn’t wish renting on my worst enemy.

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