News not great for vaccine efficacy for Delta is it ?

[captainb]

16 minutes ago, Dweller said:

Ah yes, so let's vaccinate the world! :O)
As I keep saying, I can see that something needed to be DONE just not sure if we are heading in the right direction. 
Did people have to keep having top up smallpox vaccines for years ? Did the vaccine create variants faster than the vaccine could be tweaked do you know? 
 

Well no. It was a different virus.

Just pointing out your statement that no vaccine has ever defeated a virus is factually incorrect.

You can also add polio and others to that list if you exclude outbreaks in very remote, rural parts of the world that haven't been vaccinated yet.

 

I don't actually think you can vaccinate this out like smallpox entirely. However you can reduce hospitalisations and deaths by 90% plus through vaccination.. which while not 100%, is remarkably better than not doing it.

Whether you need a booster shot yearly or every five years or even every 10 years plus, to achieve that, is yet to be seen.

Edited June 4, 2021 by captainb

[Dweller]

17 minutes ago, captainb said:

Well no. It was a different virus.

Just pointing out your statement that no vaccine has ever defeated a virus is factually incorrect.

You can also add polio and others to that list if you exclude outbreaks in very remote, rural parts of the world that haven't been vaccinated yet.

 

I don't actually think you can vaccinate this out like smallpox entirely. However you can reduce hospitalisations and deaths by 90% plus through vaccination.. which while not 100%, is remarkably better than not doing it.

Whether you need a booster shot yearly or every five years or even every 10 years plus, to achieve that, is yet to be seen.

Just pointing out your statement that no vaccine has ever defeated a virus is factually incorrect. 

What I actually meant to say was no vaccine has ever defeated a coronavirus . Should have learnt by now to read and read again before posting. 

[Freki]

11 minutes ago, Dweller said:

Just pointing out your statement that no vaccine has ever defeated a virus is factually incorrect. 

What I actually meant to say was no vaccine has ever defeated a coronavirus . Should have learnt by now to read and read again before posting. 

moving the goal posts? So take your chance, maybe try your luck by going directly to SA or India. 

[Dweller]

6 minutes ago, Freki said:

moving the goal posts? So take your chance, maybe try your luck by going directly to SA or India. 

Strange comment? I remain open to the what next, like everyone else I am just watching and waiting. I would be DELIGHTED if vaccine was the answer and turned out to be the silver bullet that everyone wants to believe it will be. Don't we ALL want life to get back to some kind of normal . 

[Si1]

bubonic plague, I believe, has been beaten by better hygiene and pest control, and antibiotics in a case of actual human infection at the last ditch (medical wonks feel free to correct me here); it's still out there, but we've broken the chain of infection.

same will end the covid pandemic, that is break the chain of transmission to and between humans - including but not limited to ongoing vaccinations - and also better ventilation - (I'm guessing as an amateur)

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/05/26/improving-ventilation-will-help-curb-sars-cov-2

 

[rantnrave]

3 hours ago, MancTom said:

Ramp up vaccine production and get the whole world vaccinated.

A massive, massive undertaking given the need to keep vaccines chilled in tropical countries with poor infrastructure...

[rantnrave]

7 minutes ago, Si1 said:

bubonic plague, I believe, has been beaten by better hygiene and pest control, and antibiotics in a case of actual human infection at the last ditch (medical wonks feel free to correct me here); it's still out there, but we've broken the chain of infection.

It is still out there, with Madagascar accounting for 75% of the world's cases in a typical year.

https://www.google.com/amp/outbreaknewstoday.com/madagascar-malaria-cases-up-in-2020-plague-cases-down-64815/amp/

[Si1]

Just now, rantnrave said:

It is still out there, with Madagascar accounting for 75% of the world's cases in a typical year.

https://www.google.com/amp/outbreaknewstoday.com/madagascar-malaria-cases-up-in-2020-plague-cases-down-64815/amp/

so it's something that is understood and largely controlled

[HovelinHove]

9 hours ago, Dweller said:

I guess the numbers in hospital over the next few months will tell. If this doesn't work then I don't know what the answer is other than leaving the elderly and vulnerable to die at home as it is the overwhelming of the NHS that is the issue here isn't it? If not for the elderly and vulnerable then everyone could have just got C19 there wouldn't have been a need to vaccinate would there? It was surely never worth vaccinating all the healthy and fit people (who would have had a natural immune response to whatever variant) so that the less healthy /elderly and vulnerable people wouldn't get it was it? 

In the worst case scenario, about 10% of the elderly and vulnerable would die…they don’t need to be alone, or at home. But I think that with the vaccine it would be much less, but yes, we need to just get on with life now.

[zugzwang]

10 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

In the worst case scenario, about 10% of the elderly and vulnerable would die…they don’t need to be alone, or at home. But I think that with the vaccine it would be much less, but yes, we need to just get on with life now.

There are 15 million over 60s in the UK, and another 2-3 million estimated to be clinically vulnerable.

Worst case scenario 1.8 million dead?

Versus a grand total of 26 in Zero Covid New Zealand.

 

 

[scottbeard]

10 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

The vaccine should make COVID like a cold or a mild flu at worst with each new mutation. 

Exactly - what I think all of us really want us to not die of COVID.  What the government wants is for us to not overstretch the NHS due to COVID.  What we can all accept as OK are vaccines that aren’t perfect but turn a potentially long term (even fatal) disease into just a cold. 
 

So yes - “vaccine not as effective against Indian variant” sounds scary until it is translated into “you will feel a bit rough instead of nothing at all”

[Dweller]

48 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

There are 15 million over 60s in the UK, and another 2-3 million estimated to be clinically vulnerable.

Worst case scenario 1.8 million dead?

Versus a grand total of 26 in Zero Covid New Zealand.

 

 

And this surely is the point that SAGE and others are making that with so many vaccinated and the vaccine not being 100% even for the original strain let alone for Delta /Nepal etc and being even less effective for the elderly /vulnerable (not so many anti bodies )  then numbers in hospital are about to start to increase again and will be potentially higher (not least because Delta is apparently landing more people in hospital ). The whole point of what I originally quoted was that SAGE are saying that  even if vaccines work as well against Delta as they did against Kent (which they are now saying they don't) then lifting the restrictions last week could drive hospitalisations up to the grim levels seen in January whilst lifting all lockdown rules on the 21st could double that peak. Remains to be seen, but as you say, that's going to be a lot of deaths. 15 million over 60s + 2-3 million clinically vulnerable with immunity at 98% still leaves a lot of people without immunity even against the original variant. This is the issue here isn't it re the NHS being overwhelmed without lockdowns. So what is the answer ?  I guess the next few months will show if the vaccine is the answer. 

.

[zugzwang]

Just now, Dweller said:

And this surely is the point that SAGE and others are making that with so many vaccinated and the vaccine not being 100% even for the original strain let alone for Delta /Nepal etc and being even less effective for the elderly /vulnerable (not so many anti bodies )  then numbers in hospital are about to start to increase again and will be potentially higher (not least because Delta is apparently landing more people in hospital ). The whole point of what I originally quoted was that SAGE are saying that  even if vaccines work as well against Delta as they did against Kent (which they are now saying they don't) then lifting the restrictions last week could drive hospitalisations up to the grim levels seen in January whilst lifting all lockdown rules on the 21st could double that peak. Remains to be seen, but as you say, that's going to be a lot of deaths. 15 million over 60s + 2-3 million clinically vulnerable with immunity at 98% still leaves a lot of people without immunity even against the original variant. This is the issue here isn't it re the NHS being overwhelmed without lockdowns. So what is the answer ?  I guess the next few months will show if the vaccine is the answer. 

.

 

Zero Covid is the answer! Demonstrably, incontravertibly.

No long Covid. No variant strains. Deaths measured in tens not tens of thousands. Minimal economic disruption.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/

[lie to bet]

11 hours ago, Si1 said:

bubonic plague, I believe, has been beaten by better hygiene and pest control, and antibiotics in a case of actual human infection at the last ditch (medical wonks feel free to correct me here); it's still out there, but we've broken the chain of infection.

same will end the covid pandemic, that is break the chain of transmission to and between humans - including but not limited to ongoing vaccinations - and also better ventilation - (I'm guessing as an amateur)

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/05/26/improving-ventilation-will-help-curb-sars-cov-2

 

Bubonic plague is a bacterial infection treated with antibiotics. Not a virus.

Not comparable to Covid 19.

Edited June 5, 2021 by lie to bet
Auto correct.

[Si1]

55 minutes ago, lie to bet said:

Bubonic plague is a bacterial infection treated with antibiotics. Not a virus.

Yes

Quote

Not comparable to Covid 19.

No. It's a transmittable disease, hence covered by the broader topic of epidemiology.

Edited June 5, 2021 by Si1

[Dweller]

8 hours ago, zugzwang said:

 

Zero Covid is the answer! Demonstrably, incontravertibly.

No long Covid. No variant strains. Deaths measured in tens not tens of thousands. Minimal economic disruption.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/

Thanks for the link. 

I have previously read  predictions that vaccines wont prove to be the silver bullet and zero covid will become the buzz word. I read an article a while back in which Paul Hunter a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia said " People in general tend to think in binaries: it stops infection or it doesn't but the reality is the vaccine stops many infections but not all. The vaccines available in the UK vary in whether they stop infection, stop symptomatic infection (ie. stop you getting ill) and stop severe disease."   
So when I read at the  link provided: "all governments and public health authorities will need to remain open to new ideas for controlling the pandemic"  I immediately feel there is  little chance of that happening here with a  government who encourages thinking in binaries and are heavily invested in vaccines. 

Thus lockdown is bad vaccine is good.  Brexiteers are good, remainers are bad. Vaccine is good people who don't want to be vaccinated are bad. Open borders are good anyone who questions the government is biased (BBC for instance). , Brexit is good, EU is bad, immigration is bad but to get a trade deal with India the UK will have to open their borders to immigration. 

Having brainwashed the people into vaccine vaccine vaccine being the answer for lockdown liberation very few would want to hear that it doesn't completely stop infection (even for the Kent variant) doesn't stop transmission, and when it comes  to variants becomes potentially  less and less effective. In my experience all people want to hear is that the vaccine works and will keep them safe and they get  their lives back and can go on holiday and it's all over. When the government says something is safe they want to believe it is safe. Most people don't want the complexity. Thus GET BREXIT DONE and other slogans have proven to be a great success. 

Time will tell if the governments get Covid done strategy is going to work no matter how many vaccines they throw at it whilst Mr Serum rents his £50,000 a week home in Mayfair (rented from a Polish billionaire). https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9401201/Boss-Indian-vaccine-firm-making-jabs-UK-agrees-rent-50k-week-Mayfair-mansion.html

[nightowl]

6 hours ago, Dweller said:

Thanks for the link. 

I have previously read  predictions that vaccines wont prove to be the silver bullet and zero covid will become the buzz word. I read an article a while back in which Paul Hunter a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia said " People in general tend to think in binaries: it stops infection or it doesn't but the reality is the vaccine stops many infections but not all. The vaccines available in the UK vary in whether they stop infection, stop symptomatic infection (ie. stop you getting ill) and stop severe disease."   
So when I read at the  link provided: "all governments and public health authorities will need to remain open to new ideas for controlling the pandemic"  I immediately feel there is  little chance of that happening here with a  government who encourages thinking in binaries and are heavily invested in vaccines. 

Thus lockdown is bad vaccine is good.  Brexiteers are good, remainers are bad. Vaccine is good people who don't want to be vaccinated are bad. Open borders are good anyone who questions the government is biased (BBC for instance). , Brexit is good, EU is bad, immigration is bad but to get a trade deal with India the UK will have to open their borders to immigration. 

Having brainwashed the people into vaccine vaccine vaccine being the answer for lockdown liberation very few would want to hear that it doesn't completely stop infection (even for the Kent variant) doesn't stop transmission, and when it comes  to variants becomes potentially  less and less effective. In my experience all people want to hear is that the vaccine works and will keep them safe and they get  their lives back and can go on holiday and it's all over. When the government says something is safe they want to believe it is safe. Most people don't want the complexity. Thus GET BREXIT DONE and other slogans have proven to be a great success. 

Time will tell if the governments get Covid done strategy is going to work no matter how many vaccines they throw at it whilst Mr Serum rents his £50,000 a week home in Mayfair (rented from a Polish billionaire). https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9401201/Boss-Indian-vaccine-firm-making-jabs-UK-agrees-rent-50k-week-Mayfair-mansion.html

Yes the "message" is very polarised and believers assume if you're not 110% in agreement get assigned a label of being an extremist the other way🤔.  Living in a world imperfect grey areas and making subjective assessments is too hard for many.

Anyways, I would t normally quote the BBC but NHS arent seeing any increase in patients that correlates with the casedemic:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

On 04/06/2021 at 12:12, reddog said:

I find it interesting to hear journalists/people who know nothing about virology throwing around "the R rate" and other terms like they know what they are talking about in this pandemic.

I also find it interesting to watch virologists who no nothing about geometric progression and network/graph theory postulating on transmission.

[zugzwang]

50 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I also find it interesting to watch virologists who no nothing about geometric progression and network/graph theory postulating on transmission.

 

You don't need to know network theory to talk about transmission. The SIR model is borrowed from the study of chemical reactions.

I'm pretty sure every virologist knows what a geometric progression is.

[andrewwk]

5 hours ago, zugzwang said:

 

You don't need to know network theory to talk about transmission. The SIR model is borrowed from the study of chemical reactions.

I'm pretty sure every virologist knows what a geometric progression is.

but graph theory sounds much cooler...

[Gbob]

Data for May. Does this suggest 2 doses of the vaccines is stopping transmission? Assuming most of the people in the 60+ age group have had 2 jabs now compared to the under 60s who have had one or none. (sorry for the long list, didn't have time to format it or make a table)

BOLTON

31 May: Age 0-59: 141 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 116 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 110 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 109 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 156 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 210 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 158 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 166 cases. Age 60+: 10cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 122 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 117 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 142 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 149 cases. Age 60+: 10cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 137 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

BLACKBURN AND DARWEN

31 May: Age 0-59: 100 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 62 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 106 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 101 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 112 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 87 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 90 cases. Age 60+: 9 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 57 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 74 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 60 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 77 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

KIRKLEES

31 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 52 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 54 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 63 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 94 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 86 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 74 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 63 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 62cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 44 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 73 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 65 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 81 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

ROSSENDALE

31 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 20 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 16 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 30 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 43 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 40 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 24 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 20 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 13 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 5 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

HYNDBURN

31 May: Age 0-59: 37 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 7 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 22 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 23 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 33 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 10 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 21 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 11 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 4 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 15 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 12 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 7 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

BEDFORD

31 May: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 36 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 35 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 42 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 33 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 52 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 38 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 31 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 38 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 54 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 72 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

MANCHESTER

31 May: Age 0-59: 140 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 108 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 118 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 102 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 120 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 99 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 96 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 98 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 51 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 40 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 47 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 57 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 46 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases
 

[slawek]

1 hour ago, Glenn said:

Data for May. Does this suggest 2 doses of the vaccines is stopping transmission? Assuming most of the people in the 60+ age group have had 2 jabs now compared to the under 60s who have had one or none. (sorry for the long list, didn't have time to format it or make a table)

BOLTON

31 May: Age 0-59: 141 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 116 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 110 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 109 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 156 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 210 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 158 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 166 cases. Age 60+: 10cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 122 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 117 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 142 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 149 cases. Age 60+: 10cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 137 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

BLACKBURN AND DARWEN

31 May: Age 0-59: 100 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 62 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 106 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 101 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 112 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 87 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 90 cases. Age 60+: 9 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 57 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 74 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 60 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 77 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

KIRKLEES

31 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 52 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 54 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 63 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 94 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 86 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 74 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 63 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 62cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 44 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 73 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 65 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 81 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

ROSSENDALE

31 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 20 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 16 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 30 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 43 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 40 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 24 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 20 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 13 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 5 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

HYNDBURN

31 May: Age 0-59: 37 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 7 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 22 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 23 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 33 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 10 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 21 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 11 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 4 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 15 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 12 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 7 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

BEDFORD

31 May: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 36 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 35 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 42 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 33 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 52 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 38 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 31 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 38 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 54 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 72 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

MANCHESTER

31 May: Age 0-59: 140 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 108 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 118 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 102 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 120 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 99 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 96 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 98 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 51 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 40 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 47 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 57 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 46 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases
 

60+ are around 25% of the population, but their share of cases is only a few percent. This is consistent with the vaccines being around 90% effective after the second dose.  

[slawek]

On 04/06/2021 at 12:07, Dweller said:

Looked for an old vaccine thread but couldn't find one so thought I would add this separately. 
So had Boris yesterday  read the latest  data from the Francis Crick Institute and National Institute of Health Research UCLH Biomedical Research Centre when he contd to say he could no reason not to lift all restrictions on the 21st? 

According to the report and  Prof Neil Ferguson this morning the Delta variant is potentially up to 60% more transmissible, people are more likely to have severe disease and  end up  in hospital and : 

According to the research, in people who had received two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, levels of neutralising antibodies were more than five times lower against the Indian variant when compared to the original strain, upon which current vaccines are based. 

This antibody response was even lower in people who had only received one dose.

After a single dose of the Pfizer jab, 79% of people had a quantifiable neutralising antibody response against the original strain, but this fell to 50% for B.1.1.7, 32% for B.1.617.2 and 25% for B.1.351 (South Africa).

A new study has revealed that the Pfizer vaccine produces fewer antibody levels against the Indian variant of the coronavirus than those against previously circulating strains.

The so-called Legacy study, which was released on Thursday, also suggested that these levels are lower with increasing age and that they decline over time.

So even if vaccine was the answer (and I get we all need an answer) then HOW can anyone keep up with an ever evolving virus? 2 doses not enough so 3rd dose now needed and then what? What if that isn't enough? And has anyone worked out yet whether people can continually be given MRNA vaccines? Liking this to the flu isn't a great comparison given that the flu vaccine is only 40-50% effective (due to an ever evolving virus) and flu is a lot less contagious than even the Alpha variant! It has taken 9 months so far to vaccinate the UK and those vaccinated in December (and later by the sounds of it) already need a booster. Does anyone know how protected people will be with a booster? And now there is the Nepal variant.  Not great news is it? How much have the government already spent on vaccine passports to confirm immunity? 

Five times lower neutralisation antibodies doesn't mean that vaccine provide five times lower protection. It mean that you have to dilute serum five times less (e.g. 200 instead 1000 times) to get the same effect in neutralising virus.  

Pfizer stops 88% symptomatic cases of Indian variant after the second dose. That is around 10% less than for the previous variants (97%).

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57214596 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-pfizer-covid-vaccine-effective-symptomatic.html

The relation between neutralisation antibodies and immunity is non-linear and scales with logarithm of neutralisation antibodies for lower values like on the schematic graph below

 

The only way to stop the virus is to vaccine the world. That will practically stop virus mutating (new doses won't be needed or needed rarely). maybe even get rid of it completely.  

Link to the research.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01290-3/fulltext

At the bottom there is a link to a PDF with interesting graphs like those

Edited June 6, 2021 by slawek

[Dweller]

Re Daily Mail article about mix and match, does the article say people get more side effects with mix and match, or am I missing something? 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9655861/Mix-match-plan-vaccine-likely-offered-Britons-autumn.html#comments

One in ten volunteers who were given two AstraZeneca jabs four weeks apart reported feverishness, but the proportion rose to about 34 per cent when they received one AstraZeneca jab and one Pfizer. Half of those given two AstraZeneca shots experienced fatigue, but it rose to almost 80 per cent for those who had AstraZeneca followed by Pfizer.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

I'm waiting for the Lamba Variant.

Hail Sparta!!!