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Fred strikes again


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54 minutes ago, MarkD said:

 

I've always held Fred Harrison in very high regard.

Actually his book (Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010) £17 on Amazon at the time saved me £150k on my last house purchase. Thats a return about 9000%.

Interestingly the hardback version that i have is now only available for £257 on Amazon, the paperback remains reasonable.

The only other author to help that much is Bill Bonner.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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Well my help to buy ISA has to be used by end 2030 so that's fine. Saving into that and wife's help to save isa is the same as paying off my future mortgage with the addition of income tax rebate.

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On 01/06/2021 at 13:31, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

I've always held Fred Harrison in very high regard.

Actually his book (Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010) £17 on Amazon at the time saved me £150k on my last house purchase. Thats a return about 9000%.

Interestingly the hardback version that i have is now only available for £257 on Amazon, the paperback remains reasonable.

The only other author to help that much is Bill Bonner.

Interesting. What did you do that saved so much? Assume you were buying in say maybe 2011 and hung on a little while and got a better deal?

Not a challenge but a genuine question because I can imagine what you say to be absolutely true and available to many who watch the market and buy well. 

I had been buying and selling for 25 years and watched gentle ‘ebbs and flows’ in the market which could easily impact prices by tens of thousands ie 15/20% and that was without any real shift in the market. Often waiting for winter, a sentiment change and a motivator seller was enough.

We hugely benefitted by selling our first home in 1989 (at just 21) and being gazumped so forced to move to rented for 2 years...we were devastated and then decided to buy without realising it was a crushed and crashed market in the early 90’s. At 23 we were then very lucky and no mortgage by 30.... just with lucky timing. 
 

Read the article... I like his point that rises and falls are fine. Just he wants to inform people what is coming so they can make informed decisions. Seems fair enough. 👍

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1 minute ago, Wayward said:

How can he predict all the UKGov meddling and distortions??

that's actually a central part of the prediction if I understand it correctly. You have a house price correction/financial crisis, ther immediate generation of banks and govt that survived that are a conservative careful bunch hence the measured careful recovery, give that 5 years; then new faces, managers, advisers come in who have forgotten the crisis and say let's loosen our discipline a bit, things start to get a little frothy, give that another 5 years. Then things are getting very excitable and the next bunch of management, politicians etc are incumbent now and getting carried away by the new paradigm of booming house prices and finance, they let things rip. That's another 5 years. Then it crashes, 3 years to the bottom. Rinse and repeat.

 

Give or take.

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8 hours ago, Pop321 said:

Interesting. What did you do that saved so much? Assume you were buying in say maybe 2011 and hung on a little while and got a better deal?

Not a challenge but a genuine question because I can imagine what you say to be absolutely true and available to many who watch the market and buy well. 

I had been buying and selling for 25 years and watched gentle ‘ebbs and flows’ in the market which could easily impact prices by tens of thousands ie 15/20% and that was without any real shift in the market. Often waiting for winter, a sentiment change and a motivator seller was enough.

We hugely benefitted by selling our first home in 1989 (at just 21) and being gazumped so forced to move to rented for 2 years...we were devastated and then decided to buy without realising it was a crushed and crashed market in the early 90’s. At 23 we were then very lucky and no mortgage by 30.... just with lucky timing. 
 

Read the article... I like his point that rises and falls are fine. Just he wants to inform people what is coming so they can make informed decisions. Seems fair enough. 👍

 

It was a developer that accidentally got stuck with in a part exchange. They acquired the house to help fund the original owner buy a new build. It was on the market for £950k in 2H 2007, dropped to £900k when we viewed it,  we stuck in a low offer that was refused, then Northern Rock happened. We had an offer on our old house, so took that money and moved into rented. After a year and a bit (so in to 2009), with falling prices, we phoned the developer up (who by then we knew needed the cash), and they accepted £750k.

I'll add, the book also helped me understand this current cycle, as a result I was able to make out like a bandit on my pension fund with C19.

I knew a crash then bailout was needed in 2019, so sold up my stocks and went bonds, then cash waiting for a drop. The excuse/cover of C19 was used, but a bailout did happen.  Off the back of that trade i'm now about £243k up on my pension.

 

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7 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

It was a developer that accidentally got stuck with in a part exchange. They acquired the house to help fund the original owner buy a new build. It was on the market for £950k in 2H 2007, dropped to £900k when we viewed it,  we stuck in a low offer that was refused, then Northern Rock happened. We had an offer on our old house, so took that money and moved into rented. After a year and a bit (so in to 2009), with falling prices, we phoned the developer up (who by then we knew needed the cash), and they accepted £750k.

I'll add, the book also helped me understand this current cycle, as a result I was able to make out like a bandit on my pension fund with C19.

I knew a crash then bailout was needed in 2019, so sold up my stocks and went bonds, then cash waiting for a drop. The excuse/cover of C19 was used, but a bailout did happen.  Off the back of that trade i'm now about £243k up on my pension.

 

I think those who act (and in the share market in particular) are braver than me. And well done to them (and you)  

I am very good at predicting what will happen with shares but don’t follow my instinct and end up doing nothing. I am not risk adverse rather it is a mixture of Fear of Missing Out verses Fear of Losing Hard earned Savings. Whenever I get to the end of my tether with inertia I then move and make a rash and wrong decision. Like a bad driver waiting at junction when it’s clear then pulling out in front of a double decker bus 🤦🏻‍♂️
 

To be fair I haven’t done bad overall…but if I had invested better I could have doubled where I am today. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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35 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

I think those who act (and in the share market in particular) are braver than me. And well done to them (and you)  

I am very good at predicting what will happen with shares but don’t follow my instinct and end up doing nothing. I am not risk adverse rather it is a mixture of Fear of Missing Out verses Fear of Losing Hard earned Savings. Whenever I get to the end of my tether with inertia I then move and make a rash and wrong decision. Like a bad driver waiting at junction when it’s clear then pulling out in front of a double decker bus 🤦🏻‍♂️
 

To be fair I haven’t done bad overall…but if I had invested better I could have doubled where I am today. 🤷🏻‍♂️

To be honest I'm similar. But my main moves have been selling led, knowing that i can hold on to past gains and  hopefully make some new ones when prices are cheap. 

My biggest individual pension pot has £325k in it. That was my second job which I did for 9 years, and I probably paid in £74k over that time. So in 10 years since then it  has seen roughly a 4.4x gain, basically the old adage is true - save early and take a bit of risk. I think that roughly equates to an annual return of 15%.

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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