Realistbear Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 (edited) http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=257376 By CATHERINE WILLIAMS State House News Service A statewide poll finds 87 percent of residents are concerned about housing costs in their area. * * * BOSTON - Housing prices are projected to drop 5 percent during each of the first two quarters of this year, and Bay State residents remain highly concerned over the cost of housing, market analysts said yesterday. The claims came as economic analysts released the results of a second annual housing survey during a presentation sponsored by the Citizens Housing and Planning Association and the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute. A "sharp" drop in Massachusetts housing prices has begun , said Alan Clayton-Matthews, a professor at the McCormack Graduate School of Policy Studies at UMass. "The same economic forces that led to very high and fast-growing prices here in the past are now working in reverse," he said. " The longer we avoid a correction in housing prices, the sharper that correction will be and the more steep it will be ." This, ladies and gentleman of HPC.co.uk is the model that others, including the UK, will follow. HPC 2006. LIke the Great Awakening of the 18th Century--it all began in the State of Massachusetts! IR going skyward: http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=257167 Edited February 10, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panda Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 This, ladies and gentleman of HPC.co.uk is the model that others, including the UK, will follow. HPC 2006. This, ladies and gentleman is booooooooooooooooooooootiful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 ...and the lights go out in Massachussets.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuyingBear Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 (edited) Err, Q1 isn't finished yet, so we shall see. (maybe it'll be 15%?) Edited February 10, 2006 by BuyingBear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panda Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 Wait till the lights go out on the UK housing market, i bet the VI's and the media still scream denial. I will never purchase a national rag again in my lifetime. Spin spin spin, a f@cking waste of good money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gasket37 Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 ...and the lights go out in Massachussets.... ...And Massachusetts is one place I have seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 ...and the lights go out in Massachussets.... Damn fine call! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 10, 2006 Author Share Posted February 10, 2006 And notice how quickly it went from up up and away to crash. About 3 months? This will unsettle other US markets and we can expect the same. This next crash is going to come quickly and it will shock a lot of people when it does. What happened in Massachusetts is exactly what happened here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 More bad Amercian news Jim Williams, executive vice-president of the Northern Virginia Building Industry Assn., knew the "feeding frenzy" had gotten out of hand when a waiter in a restaurant he frequents confided that he had bought four houses on spec. "I'm sitting looking at him and thinking even with tips...he must be dying on the vine." Now, investors' scramble for the exits is creating problems for owners like Omar Singh, 29, owner of a trucking company in Herndon. His townhouse in Sterling has been on the market for $525,000 since October. He's hoping to hold out without cutting his asking price until April. But, he says, "I might not be able to." http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...articlekey=1270 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuyingBear Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 More bad Amercian news .. http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...articlekey=1270 Hrm, that's from Business Week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 Easy financing fueled the buying boom: County officials say up to 40% of new mortgages this year were interest-only loans, with low payments enabling borrowers to finance higher bids. What's the % in the UK? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 Cool... a bit more of this and Brown will be able to raise rates, crash the UK housing market and claim that it wasn't his fault, it was fallout from the US crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 (edited) ...and the lights go out in Massachussets.... Damn fine call! Didn't it go: "And the lights all went down in Massachusetts" (Can't stop singing it now...) Hang on, this link is wholly based on a crude SURVEY of a few hundred local residents in MS! The claims came as economic analysts released the results of a second annual housing survey during a presentation sponsored by the Citizens Housing and Planning Association and the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute. Michael Goodman, director Economic and Public Policy at the UMass Donahue Institute, said the survey polled 500 Massachusetts residents statewide in November, when a separate survey of 450 Essex County residents was also conducted. Very scientific. Very credible. Also prices are only 'predicted' to fall (by the locals?). "Housing prices are almost certainly going to decline in the near future." Goodman is also the president of the New England Economic Partnership, which forecasts an overall 3 percent drop in housing prices over a two-year period. Goodman said this represents a mild correction being caused by a sluggish state economy, population losses and higher interest rates. He doesn't seem to be predicting much of a CRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAASSSSSSHHHH in other parts of the USA... Maybe it's just Massachusetts then. Massachusetts leads the United States in housing price increases. From 1980 to 2005 the price of homes in Massachusetts increased 618 percent, compared to 273 percent nationwide. "I've just gotta get a message to you Hold on, hold on One more hour and my life will be through Hold on, hold on " Edited February 10, 2006 by Without_a_Paddle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 (edited) Didn't it go: "And the lights all went down in Massachusetts" (Can't stop singing it now...) I defer to your superior Bee Gees knowledge. More of a Streisand fan myself Edited February 10, 2006 by muttley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 More of a Streisand fan myself Tragedy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalista Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 Well, close shave for me; I was looking at buying here in Boston in summer of 2004. My employer was offering some sweet special mortgage deals too, but I just thought don't want to pay 6% real estate agent commission in 2 years time .... lucky escape it seems. frugalista Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 Tragedy! Come to think of it I think "Woman in Love" was written by the Bee Gees Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 ...and how much of this do we think is attributable to the raising of IRs in the US of A? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BandWagon Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 (edited) ...and how much of this do we think is attributable to the raising of IRs in the US of A? Basically none. Mortgages in the States are financed off long-term (30 year) rates, which have basically remained static. Greenspan has been raising interest rates, but he only controls the short end, which don't have any effect on $ mortgages. Hence the yanks are heading for their very own inverted yield curve, as short rates rise above long rates. House bubbles can pop without interest rate rises. Get used to it. Edited February 10, 2006 by BandWagon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 10, 2006 Author Share Posted February 10, 2006 (edited) Didn't it go: "And the lights all went down in Massachusetts" (Can't stop singing it now...) Hang on, this link is wholly based on a crude SURVEY of a few hundred local residents in MS! Very scientific. Very credible. Also prices are only 'predicted' to fall (by the locals?). He doesn't seem to be predicting much of a CRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAASSSSSSHHHH in other parts of the USA... Maybe it's just Massachusetts then. "I've just gotta get a message to you Hold on, hold on One more hour and my life will be through Hold on, hold on " California does not look too healthy either--crash imminent: http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=256258 Default Notices Are on the Rise Source: The Sacramento Bee Publication date: 2006-02-06 By Andrew LePage, The Sacramento Bee, Calif. Feb. 6--It took less than eight months for Dustin Suposs' "American Dream" to become a nightmare. He and his girlfriend, both in their early 20s, got caught up in the better-buy-now mentality that fueled the Sacramento area's housing market last spring. They bought a $365,000, 1,550-square-foot home in Elk Grove with no money down. The result: A $2,300-a-month payment that was more than 2 1/2 times the rent they were paying. By December the couple were drowning in bills and debt. Now they're two months behind on the mortgage. Experts say the pair are part of a new trend -- a growing wave of distressed borrowers just beginning to hit Sacramento and across California. In December, lenders filed 321 notices of default in Sacramento County, the highest number in nearly three years, according to DataQuick Information Systems, which tracks county property records. Statewide, lenders in December filed defaults against 5,582 homeowners, the highest since March 2004. Such notices are the first step in the foreclosure process. Already, many working with distressed borrowers see ominous signs that suggest foreclosure activity is picking up fast. "We're seeing the early indicators that it's only getting worse ," said Pam Canada, executive director of the nonprofit Neighborworks Homeownership Center in Oak Park, which educates would-be homebuyers and helps existing owners stay out of foreclosure. "We're creeping into the dozens of calls per month (from owners behind on their payments), and that's higher than a year ago, when it would have been half a dozen a month." Calls from homeowners in financial distress "are rising rapidly ," said Jennifer Harris, executive director of Sacramento's Home Loan Counseling Center. How quickly the HPC is spreading--imagine the speed of a full scale crash in the UK? Too late for many to get out but its not too late for those about to jump in to rent for a few more years and let this monster crash pass. Looks like its already spread to Virginia also: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/conte...51/b3964052.htm Bubble, Bubble -- Then Trouble Is the chill in once-red-hot Loudoun County, Va., a portent of what's ahead? Psssssfffffft. That's the sound of the air finally leaking from the real estate bubble in Loudoun County, Va. Since 2000 it's been the nation's fastest-growing county, where eager homebuyers always seemed to outnumber happy sellers. Until now. What's happening in Loudoun is a rapid shift in psychology -- a classic sign of a market turn. The buoyant optimism that fueled speculation and expectations of ever-rising prices is now succumbing to the fear of being left standing when the music stops. Real estate, the hottest play of the century in Loudoun, is rapidly cooling . Edited February 10, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 Well, close shave for me; I was looking at buying here in Boston in summer of 2004. My employer was offering some sweet special mortgage deals too, but I just thought don't want to pay 6% real estate agent commission in 2 years time .... lucky escape it seems. frugalista I take it you weren't one of the lucky 900 who took part in the survey, Frugalista. How did they select the 500 people from the whole state of Massachusetts? Would that be one person per town/city or what? Thought this bit was funny... Last year, Goodman said, the poll found that one in two Massachusetts residents would leave the state due to high housing costs. In 2005, the number dropped to one in four. The change could be due to emerging concerns over energy costs or the possibility that those concerned about housing have moved out, he said. ...or possibly due to the fact that Goodman didn't survey enough people to get a more accurate set of results about the state of the housing market in Massachusetts.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 10, 2006 Author Share Posted February 10, 2006 (edited) I take it you weren't one of the lucky 900 who took part in the survey, Frugalista. How did they select the 500 people from the whole state of Massachusetts? Would that be one person per town/city or what? Thought this bit was funny... ...or possibly due to the fact that Goodman didn't survey enough people to get a more accurate set of results about the state of the housing market in Massachusetts.. With a market on the knife edge it doesn't take much to spook the herd--a few hundred people panicking--a few news articles like the ones posted--especially Businessweek--and its pandamonium. The Wall Street Journal is also full of doom and gloom about property--see earlier psots today. This is the big one we have been waiting for and its just a matter of time before it reaches our shores. The Wall Street Journal: http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/m...0209-simon.html Still, the pinch is being felt in many corners of the housing market. The number of completed new homes currently on the market has risen nearly 40% over the past year, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence in Costa Mesa, Calif., a market research and consulting firm. The shift has been particularly noticeable where inventories had been thin: In central California, the inventory of new homes climbed to 238 in the fourth quarter, from just 26 a year earlier, an increase of more than 800% . As orders slow, builders are engaged in heavy discounting and promotional activity, particularly among homes for the second-time, move-up and luxury buyer. A survey conducted last month by the National Association of Home Builders found that 64% of builders are now using incentives such as offers to pay closing costs and free upgrades; 19% are cutting prices. Last week Standard Pacific Corp., a major builder, said that new orders, excluding acquisitions, fell about 20% in the fourth quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. Lennar Corp., another builder, recently offered discounts of $20,000 to $30,000, plus help with closing costs and bonuses to brokers, on selected homes in the Tampa area. Edited February 10, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalista Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 I take it you weren't one of the lucky 900 who took part in the survey, Frugalista. How did they select the 500 people from the whole state of Massachusetts? Would that be one person per town/city or what? No, I never got sampled! State population is about 3 million I think, most of which live in "Greater Boston". 500 people, if selected randomly, is easily a big enough sample size for statistically significant results, unless the trend you are trying to show is extremely marginal. frugalista Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuyingBear Posted February 10, 2006 Share Posted February 10, 2006 (edited) Basically none. Mortgages in the States are financed off long-term (30 year) rates, which have basically remained static. Greenspan has been raising interest rates, but he only controls the short end, which don't have any effect on $ mortgages. Not the case, for example the majority loans taken out in California are interest only with adjustable rates, various exotic loans have been the norm over recent years including negative amortization adjustable ARM's, loans with low introductory rates and that roll over interest (technically illegal in many states), lots of self-cert, sub-prime lending going on. Their loans look crazy compared to British lenders, if you think the US bubble is founded on fixed 30 year mortgages then think again. Edited February 10, 2006 by BuyingBear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 10, 2006 Author Share Posted February 10, 2006 Not the case, for example the majority loans taken out in California are interest only with adjustable rates, various exotic loans have been the norm over recent years including negative amortization adjustable ARM's, loans with low introductory rates and that roll over interest (technically illegal in many states), lots of self-cert, sub-prime lending going on. Their loans look crazy compared to British lenders, if you think the US bubble is founded on fixed 30 year mortgages then think again. Correct. In California "creative financing" comprised over 80% of home loans in 2005. Its as bad everywhere in the US as people cannot qualify for "conventional financing" or fixed rates loans as these require income verification and are based on LTVs. Many of these loans are falling due for refi in 2006 and 2007 which means, in some cases, a 100% uplift in mortgage payments. Its going to be an ugly crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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