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Converted Lurker

Volume Of Sales

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I believe this understated and airbrushed stat. says far more re. current market conditions and where they are headed than prices. Volume in, for example, L`pool is down 18% (L.R. quarter comparison YoY) and yet there is massive over development there, particularly in the city centre, so therefore an argument could be put forward that the drop in volumes is massive. An analogy with car sales-commentators do not stress that average prices are still up due to a disproportionate amount of Range Rovers and BMWs selling, they complain re. the sales volume being down 13% YoY. Any thoughts on how relevant volume is?

Edited by Converted Lurker

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Volume is absolutely relevant to any trend. In short, rising volume means the trend is gaining momentum, falling volume means the trend is running out of steam.

1. Rising price, rising volume - prices likely to continue rising.

2. Rising price falling volume - prices likely to stop rising.

3. Falling price rising volume - prices likely to keep falling.

4. Falling price falling volume - prices likely to stop falling.

We're around point number 2 or 3 right now depending on what country you are in. UK seems to be at point 2, parts of Australia are at 2 or 3 with Sydney in particular being at point 3.

Take a look at the attached graph to see what stage 3 looks like. Data from the Commonwealth Bank (Oz).

Sydney_House_Price_Jan_2006.bmp

Sydney_House_Price_Jan_2006.bmp

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Well, the Land Registry has shown falling prices (1.68% since Q3) and increasing volumes since the same period last year. Maybe we are entering stage 3?

Time will tell.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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