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Realistbear

Ft Index Released

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http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ad89689c-9994-11d...00779e2340.html

The recovery of house prices since the Autumn has been
extremely muted and did not gather pace at the start of 2006,
the FT House price index, the most reliable guide to prices paid in the property market, showed on Friday.
The FT house price index is now showing
a more subdued market than the figures from the lenders
, the Halifax and the Nationwide.
Revisions have decreased the estimate of house price inflation in December. The estimate of December’s average property price in England and Wales has been
revised marginally down
from £196,042 to £195,183.

:D

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http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ad89689c-9994-11d...00779e2340.html

The recovery of house prices since the Autumn has been
extremely muted and did not gather pace at the start of 2006,
the FT House price index, the most reliable guide to prices paid in the property market, showed on Friday.
The FT house price index is now showing
a more subdued market than the figures from the lenders
, the Halifax and the Nationwide.
Revisions have decreased the estimate of house price inflation in December. The estimate of December’s average property price in England and Wales has been
revised marginally down
from £196,042 to £195,183.

:D

And the same article ALSO stated:

"Even though house price inflation has fallen well below its peak of 15.2 per cent in August 2004, there is no sign that prices are about to fall. The market, across England and Wales, shows signs of stability with transactions at normal levels and prices rising at a similar pace to general inflation."

and this is what the millions out their in UK are reading in article after article......

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And the same article ALSO stated:

"Even though house price inflation has fallen well below its peak of 15.2 per cent in August 2004, there is no sign that prices are about to fall. The market, across England and Wales, shows signs of stability with transactions at normal levels and prices rising at a similar pace to general inflation."

and this is what the millions out their in UK are reading in article after article......

Its depends on what signs they're looking for.

I would say on HPC the general consesus is that they are looking at the wrong ones ...

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Guest

This may be so, but it's just stolen a lot of present and future monies away from the businesses, and is hyper-sensitive to minor interest rate increases.

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Its depends on what signs they're looking for.

I would say on HPC the general consesus is that they are looking at the wrong ones ...

Right. Fewer more expensive houses selling can wreak havoc with statistics. The best "signs" are the number of houses on the market, length of time unsold and number of mortgage applications for new purchases (ignore MEW loans).

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Its depends on what signs they're looking for.

I would say on HPC the general consesus is that they are looking at the wrong ones ...

But this was a balanced article from a source that only last week was being praised on this forum for its balanced and authoritive reports. HPC is read by a minority of UK - only approx 3600 members! + lurkers/guests etc. Type House price crash into google/serch engine and this site comes straight up...if the UK sentiment is changing why are there not thousands of new members joining up? IMO the general public is not worried about a HPC and will not be whilst they still have a job and IR stay low. Many COULD afford to knock a few £1000's of the asking price because they are sitting on equity..... Not many would consider STR and gambling money on stock market....as the "stock market crashes too" . Ask around and you will be surprised how MANY (i did not say all) people are NOT struggling yet.......it is not all doom and gloom.

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Ask around and you will be surprised how MANY (i did not say all) people are NOT struggling yet.......it is not all doom and gloom.

The majority of Britons would be unable to cope financially in the event of a minor household emergency according to the Alliance & Leicester. Just 28% said they had money put aside which could be used to replace household appliances, such as a cooker or fridge.

According to this survey 72% must be struggling. <_<

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According to this survey 72% must be struggling. <_<

The FT article ALSO stated:

"Even though house price inflation has fallen well below its peak of 15.2 per cent in August 2004, there is no sign that prices are about to fall. The market, across England and Wales, shows signs of stability with transactions at normal levels and prices rising at a similar pace to general inflation."

All i would respectfully ask you to do is ask all your friends/family/work mates etc/students/unemployed (the cross section that make up my friends) how bad things are for them....

i was surprised by what i heard.....and all i can go on is what i hear. i am not saying it will be the same for everyone.

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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According to this survey 72% must be struggling. <_<

The recent figure on car sales suggest things are not so good. Seems to me a new car is the last thing you buy when your bottle is going.

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If people (consumers, the meeja, financial services industry, estate agents etc) could accurately predict market trends then there wouldn't any crashes. I predict that no one will accurately predict the next HPC.

A small minority of people (like the ones on this forum) know something is afoot but even amongst ourselves we can't really agree on the "killer" stat. It wont happen until something big happens. Interest rates go up. An estate agency goes bust. A bomb goes off. England go out of the World Cup in the first round. Some journalist on the Daily Mail has a BTL go bad and tells the middles classes. Who knows.

Personally, i moved up to the West Mids 6 months ago and in the two offices i've worked so far NO ONE could afford a house in my home town. People were looking miles away in shi* towns. No way will that last. I know it, you all know it but the meeja arn't going to report on gut feelings. When it slides it will move fast and gather its own momentum but we ain't there yet - not by a long shot.

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HPC is read by a minority of UK - only approx 3600 members! + lurkers/guests etc. Type House price crash into google/serch engine and this site comes straight up...if the UK sentiment is changing why are there not thousands of new members joining up? IMO the general public is not worried about a HPC....

If you really have "been hearing this for years" then you would know that during the last crash there was a complete state of denial across the media and general public until the very hard, painful truth smacked the masses in the face.

This 'realisation' stage was reached way after the smart money had left the market. There is an awful lot of hype and wishful thinking on this web site but there are also a lot of people who can see the signs of trouble to come. Only a minority of people have experienced the difficulties of the housing market in the last 12 months but that doesn't mean that there is no longer a threat. The threat is looming, growing and sooner or later it will ***** the conscience of the masses.

I think the housing market is poised to slide away with the slightest nudge. What would happen if interest rates rose by 0.5%? We all know the consequences.

If the general public isn't worried about a crash in house prices caused by a small hypothetical adjustment to the base rate then I would suggest the general public aren't a great model for financial excellence.

Xil.

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If you really have "been hearing this for years" then you would know that during the last crash there was a complete state of denial across the media and general public until the very hard, painful truth smacked the masses in the face.

This 'realisation' stage was reached way after the smart money had left the market. There is an awful lot of hype and wishful thinking on this web site but there are also a lot of people who can see the signs of trouble to come. Only a minority of people have experienced the difficulties of the housing market in the last 12 months but that doesn't mean that there is no longer a threat. The threat is looming, growing and sooner or later it will ***** the conscience of the masses.

I think the housing market is poised to slide away with the slightest nudge. What would happen if interest rates rose by 0.5%? We all know the consequences.

If the general public isn't worried about a crash in house prices caused by a small hypothetical adjustment to the base rate then I would suggest the general public aren't a great model for financial excellence.

Xil.

Many also lost their jobs AND had their mortgage interest rates doubled last time. i was around last time, lost my job.........so i can speak from experience....

many influential city reports are discussing IR's to fall or remain stable this year. i am looking at the whole picture and although many on this board desperately want a crash it does not mean it will happen...IMO only. My definition of a crash is sustained reductions of 30-50% across all types/locations. Some properties will be reduced but not IMO A1 property in good locations. But if i was 100% sure i wouldn't be reading reports on this site and trying to get a balanced picture. (and altho the general consensus may not be balanced i get to see excellent informative articles i may not othwerwise see ) But anything can happen. More bombs in London and to be honest i will want to get out. last time it was terrifying and the fear in peoples faces on every train/bus...not sure i want to experience that again.........so NO i can not be sure prices will not crash here.........

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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Many also lost their jobs AND had their mortgage interest rates doubled last time. i was around last time, lost my job.........so i can speak from experience....

During the early 90s a lot of people lost jobs and were put under severe financial pressure. A truly unpleasant time.

However interest rates only started rising after house prices had fallen for a sustained period. Lots of people weren't taking the hint that trouble was on the way and then Norman Lamont pulled a master stroke with the ERM and interest rates shot up overnight. Reposession, reposession, reposession.

Looking back, that period where house prices were quietly sliding away before general public awareness and concern reminds me of............ .......um......

...now.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Total personal debt around 1993 was ONLY about £400 billion and now is £1.158 trillion growing at a rate of 10.2% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of £100bn.

. :rolleyes:

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My definition of a crash is sustained reductions of 30-50% across all types/locations.

Halifax stated Somerset was down 10% last year, that's across all property types. And 2005 will hardly be seen as the worst year of the crash.

Look a little closer at the fall, (page 4 and 5 of link).

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/UKQ42005.doc

Seems to me it is the A1 locations that are bombing, soon to be followed by the rest if history repeats itself.

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Halifax stated Somerset was down 10% last year, that's across all property types. And 2005 will hardly be seen as the worst year of the crash.

Look a little closer at the fall, (page 4 and 5 of link).

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/UKQ42005.doc

Seems to me it is the A1 locations that are bombing, soon to be followed by the rest if history repeats itself.

I noticed Somerset and also the areas that rose too. it is obvious that people on this forum who are bears will see things differently to me.......and i thought the consensus here was to discount Halifax statistics as they are VI and biased.....?? oh.........i get it not when it supports your argument.................. <_<

i am going to wait and see what happens.....

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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