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urban_hymn

Toll Brothers

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I'm trying to educate myself a little about TA and I noticed that this chart for US house builder Toll Brothers looks like one of the classic potential short charts out of a TA book.

Can anyone spare a minute to agree/disagree.

I notice that the charts of UK housebuilders don't look as far advanced.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TOL&t=5y

Edited by urban_hymn

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TOL been getting hammered in particular, but all US builders have been getting smashed in the last few weeks. Careful if you're shorting. I think they're oversold and due a bounce...

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2398/2261/1600/kbh.jpg

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2398/2261/1600/bzh.jpg

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2398/2261/1600/hov.jpg

2 year charts of the US builders look like a classic bump and run:

barr-intl.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/barr.html

Edited by Van

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TOL been getting hammered in particular, but all US builders have been getting smashed in the last few weeks. Careful if you're shorting. I think they're oversold and due a bounce...

2 year charts of the US builders look like a classic bump and run:

Thanks for the reply VAN.

I have a book "How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short" by William O'Neil. He stresses repeatedly that the ideal shorting point can be several months after the top and that there can be several rallies back through the 50 day MA before the stock finally breaks significantly.

Your observation "oversold and due a bounce" fits perfectly with that pattern of behaviour I referred to above.

From your posts VAN I thought you were bullish on markets in 2006. If TOL has exhibited a classic head and shoulders formation then that must bode badly for the rest of the market?

What is a "bump and run"???

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I'm trying to educate myself a little about TA and I noticed that this chart for US house builder Toll Brothers looks like one of the classic potential short charts out of a TA book.

Can anyone spare a minute to agree/disagree.

I notice that the charts of UK housebuilders don't look as far advanced.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TOL&t=5y

just had a look at your chart........yes does look like a sell signal.

..the trend has broken and it has failed when it tried to re-test it......you'll need to keep a close eye on this one to see if it's a head and shoulders....normally you would see better defenition.Personally I don't think the pattern looks right.reversal for sure,but I don't see armageddon just yet.

Edited by oracle

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check this chart far clearer and more bearish, I dont like the yahooo chartz

lower low lower high, another even lower low. yep thats bearish.

rising US interest rates for you aint it. hastens the day of reakoning.

TOL.gif

post-2251-1140997102.gif

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no right shoulder yet, distorted scale

I quite agree with you jonpo, my mistake. However, if we look closer to home, Bellway (BWY) looks like it's really forming a textbook head and shoulders.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/...asp?symb=UK:bwy

I suppose you could short down to the neckline or wait a few months for the real opportunity when it finally rolls over.

If BWY is forming a head and shoulders then is this a bellwether for the ftse250 generally???

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  • 335 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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