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Every year of life saved by lockdowns has cost at least 282 years of life


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http://www.sfu.ca/~allen/LockdownReport.pdf

 

And remember, the years of life saved are those of old, unproductive tax leeches.

If you think there is going to be a recovery after CCPV, you are mistaken.

Supply chains are ruined.

People have been paid to sit at home.

Debts are mounting.

Cancer has gone undiagnosed among young, productive people

Fewer babies have been made.

The reduction of interest rates was supported by expanding worker productivity. What do you think is happening to porductivity?

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8 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Fails to consider fat tails. Take a trip to India.

Smelly, dirty country and they shield themselves from the sun as much as possible. I didn't want to go before corona; I want to go even less now.

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1 minute ago, Locke said:

Smelly, dirty country and they shield themselves from the sun as much as possible. I didn't want to go before corona; I want to go even less now.

Completely irrelevant answer dude.

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4 minutes ago, Locke said:

Smelly, dirty country and they shield themselves from the sun as much as possible. I didn't want to go before corona; I want to go even less now.

I ignore Si1 but I can see his comment in your reply…you forgot to add that India has a rate of mortality from COVID that is a 10th of the UK, being only 112 on the world COVID rankings. The healthcare system is woeful, and the population is 1.4 billion…what you see on TV is the worst of the worst, the vast majority have the snuffles or nothing and get on with life. Those who say look at India are idiots who are incapable of getting their tiny little heads around clinical data…as they have been all along hence the ludicrous and highly costly lockdowns that were a completely disproportionate and inappropriate response to a disease that mostly affected those who were going to die in the next year anyway.

Thank you Locke for original post.

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1 minute ago, HovelinHove said:

I ignore Si1 but I can see his comment in your reply…you forgot to add that India has a rate of mortality from COVID that is a 10th of the UK, being only 112 on the world COVID rankings. The healthcare system is woeful, and the population is 1.4 billion…what you see on TV is the worst of the worst, the vast majority have the snuffles or nothing and get on with life. Those who say look at India are idiots who are incapable of getting their tiny little heads around clinical data…as they have been all along hence the ludicrous and highly costly lockdowns that were a completely disproportionate and inappropriate response to a disease that mostly affected those who were going to die in the next year anyway.

Thank you Locke for original post.

I refuse to block anyone :)

I was thinking of mentioning those things, but I can't be bothered to pull numbers. India has been way dramatised and yeah, it might get pretty bad. Living in poverty, avoiding the sun and breathing in heavy pollution all day every day makes you vulnerable to respiratory ailments...who knew?

8 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Completely irrelevant answer dude.

Same to you. I am talking about whether there will be an economic recovery. 

There won't, and it is mostly because of lockdown.

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26 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I ignore Si1 but I can see his comment in your reply…you forgot to add that India has a rate of mortality from COVID that is a 10th of the UK, being only 112 on the world COVID rankings. The healthcare system is woeful, and the population is 1.4 billion…what you see on TV is the worst of the worst, the vast majority have the snuffles or nothing and get on with life. Those who say look at India are idiots who are incapable of getting their tiny little heads around clinical data…as they have been all along hence the ludicrous and highly costly lockdowns that were a completely disproportionate and inappropriate response to a disease that mostly affected those who were going to die in the next year anyway.

Thank you Locke for original post.

Somehow being criticised for not understanding data by someone who verbatim doesn't consider the inevitable weaknesses of data off t'internet is frankly laughable. And trusting in a paper from an unknown academic that hasn't even made preprint status never mind peer review is hilarious.

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I truly believe the horrendous indian figures are due to the lockdowns more than anything else. The grocery stores are open only until noon, so there is a rush for everyone to do their grocery shopping at the same time. Lockdowns mean people are cooped up inside under the sveltering heat. In a country where most people live hand to mouth, a lockdown with no furlough is a disaster waiting to happen.

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27 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Have you been there ?

Yes fascinating place

34 minutes ago, Locke said:

There won't, and it is mostly because of lockdown.

All the predictions are that there will be a recovery - went up 1.5% on March the last recorded figure.  

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36 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I ignore Si1 but I can see his comment in your reply…you forgot to add that India has a rate of mortality from COVID that is a 10th of the UK, being only 112 on the world COVID rankings. The healthcare system is woeful, and the population is 1.4 billion…what you see on TV is the worst of the worst, the vast majority have the snuffles or nothing and get on with life. Those who say look at India are idiots who are incapable of getting their tiny little heads around clinical data…as they have been all along hence the ludicrous and highly costly lockdowns that were a completely disproportionate and inappropriate response to a disease that mostly affected those who were going to die in the next year anyway.

Thank you Locke for original post.

I wouldn't believe the 'official' Indian statistics, the death toll is much higher. News Reporters are only showing what's happening in the big cities, there will be similar scenes of chaos and anarchy in the rural areas too.

Another issue is now that the virus has mutated in India to what looks likely to be more spreadable and deadly virus - lockdown may have prevented that.

Granted India is not as developed as the UK, they were woefully unprepared of this kind of COVID wave and it's a huge lesson to other countries in the region and around the world. 

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30 minutes ago, crescent said:

Yes fascinating place

All the predictions are that there will be a recovery - went up 1.5% on March the last recorded figure.  

I loved it opened a small office in Hyderabad - I want to see more of the country commuted for two weeks on a Royal Enfield across the city that was interesting !

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Of course while around 3 million people have died from Covid globally since last March nearly 100 million people have died from other things. Even in the UK there were nearly five times as many people who died from other things than Covid last year than died from Covid.

The UK total death toll is equivalent to the total number of children globally under 5 who die globally from disease and malnutrition in a typical week. At least two thirds of those kids are in Africa. 

Odd there seems to be very little interest these days in any deaths that aren’t due to Covid unless perhaps a US or British police officer is responsible.

Clearly some lives matter more than others - and some lives clearly don’t matter at all!

Edited by MARTINX9
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1 hour ago, Locke said:

Cancer has gone undiagnosed among young, productive people

There is no evidence of that and even if true would affect a tiny number of workers in an overpopulated nation.

My experience is I was at the dentist last Tuesday.  He saw something he was mot happy about on my tounge and said he will contact the hospital.

I had a call Friday asking if I could attend on Monday which I did. Saw a consultant who had a look said it was nothing to worry about.


A buddy of mine who is 30 was diagnosed with throat cancer 4 months, within  2 weeks of a visit to his GP.  Had radio every day for 4 weeks and was given the all clear.

I think that is an incredible service.  

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Is this like the bat stuff you posted where basically you'd been on Google and I had to explain line by line how you were posting nonsense, and then when you posted more I explained all the bat research and interactions, differing species, etc... and got no reply.

India is actually a wonderful place, been there many times, but then travel is the cure for ignorance and experiencing things is more valuable than seeing it on a web page or just having read about it.

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1 hour ago, Locke said:

Polling in Britain suggests a majority support lockdown (I think it was generally around 70-80%). This suggests that for these individuals it passed their subjective cost-benefit analysis.

But Allen argues that people have a lot of reasons why lockdowns aren't in their interest.

Allen notes Bryan Caplan's estimate, based on his twitter poll

Bryan Caplan on Twitter: "Suppose you could either live a year of life in the COVID era, or X months under normal conditions. What's the value of X that makes the AVERAGE AMERICAN indifferent?" / Twitter

If Caplan's result is representative, why was there such strong support for lockdown? (They are probably not - just a few hundred responding to that twitter poll)

 

After giving a list of costs of lockdown, Allen acknowledged that those "who are older, professional, have no children at home, live in a large house with a garden, dislike travel, and have poorer health, lockdown might have given them comfort and been no inconvenience. These folks might sacrifice nothing to avoid lockdown."

Clearly many people would not merely "sacrifice nothing to avoid lockdown" but would prefer lockdown. He would need to acknowledge this if wanted to attempt a cost-benefit analysis.

 

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Spent six months in India in 2006...great experience.  I don't remember it being particularly clean or fragrant.  You soon adopt different standards / expectations and look through it, particularly in hindsight when it all is recalled through a rosy lens.

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1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

Of course while around 3 million people have died from Covid globally since last March nearly 100 million people have died from other things. Even in the UK there were nearly five times as many people who died from other things than Covid last year than died from Covid.

I would have thought most of the other deaths in the UK were not easily preventable. In less developed countries millions of deaths would have been preventable (i.e. they would have survived if they lived in a more developed country), but how many would have been preventable? Could we simply save millions of lives with enough aid, or is it more complicated than that?

1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

The UK total death toll is equivalent to the total number of children globally under 5 who die globally from disease and malnutrition in a typical week. At least two thirds of those kids are in Africa. 

What were we doing about this in 2019? Were we not solving it because we didn't value those lives, or we didn't know how to solve the problem?

1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

Odd there seems to be very little interest these days in any deaths that aren’t due to Covid unless perhaps a US or British police officer is responsible.

Clearly some lives matter more than others - and some lives clearly don’t matter at all!

Were the anti-lockdown people making a big fuss about deaths due to domestic violence, drugs, alcohol, despair and unemployment before 2020?

 

 

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There are people living in India that are much happier than us having far less than us materially....the caste system means they have a certain expectation and know their place and standing in society.....always tomorrow, always hope.;)

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8 minutes ago, winkie said:

There are people living in India that are much happier than us having far less than us materially....the caste system means they have a certain expectation and know their place and standing in society.....always tomorrow, always hope.;)

Much as I don't have a particularly high opinion of the modern world I'm in no hurry to go back to "know your place and be happy with it peasant!"

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1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

Much as I don't have a particularly high opinion of the modern world I'm in no hurry to go back to "know your place and be happy with it peasant!"

Must be quite convenient to have people think they know and accept their lower place...... society in other places we are led to believe we are all entitled with rights, not everyone can be at the top of the tree, an inverted triangle......the bough will break the triangle will topple over, the earth couldn't support it all.😉

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1 hour ago, Social Justice League said:

Corona virus has been a massive over reaction by idiotic politicians the world over imo.

I have my first jag on Monday by the way.  Felt fine before the jag, feel fine after it too.

What you gone for e-type ??

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