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UK Interest rates... where will it go within 12 months? I suspect 2-4%


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29 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

There are already multiple threads covering inflation and interest rates. Why do you keep starting more?

Why do the bankers keep printing more...same reason, insanity

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"Feds asleep at the wheel".  That's not actually true, this is what they want, this is deliberate.

The "markets" aint having it though and IRs will have to rise and they'll have to tighten quicker than they expected or all hells is going to break loose.

People might be shocked how quickly IRs have to rise if push comes to shove.

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This might come in handy for a few people in the next couple of years

 

http://www.n-ram.co.uk/helpful-tools-calculators/rate-rise-calculator

 

e.g.

image.png.692dad22986b0777299c6d1095b15ab0.png

 

image.png.871063a04b7df8b888330e789f9b6c64.png

 

£200 a month increase if rates go up 2%, that 3% rise is more meaty though, £300.

That's not bad at all.  The Boe have been refusing to up rates all this time and that's all it would affact people ?

If anyone is that close to being unable to afford their mortgage they shouldn't be allowed to borrow quite frankly.

Gonna be a lot of upset people 2023 onwards.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

"Feds asleep at the wheel".  That's not actually true, this is what they want, this is deliberate.

The "markets" aint having it though and IRs will have to rise and they'll have to tighten quicker than they expected or all hells is going to break loose.

People might be shocked how quickly IRs have to rise if push comes to shove.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the recovery is "uneven and far from complete." While he noted that inflation pressures could rise in the coming months, these "one-time increases in prices are likely to only have transitory effects on inflation." April 2021. -- So they are expecting an initial rise to peak and drop back below 2%!

Whereas Berkshire Hathaway are reporting seeing inflationary impacts to their supply chains on the ground already,  "supply shortages" in commodities such as oil, timber etc are producing a shortage in finished, semi-finished goods elongating lead times for supply. Combine supply shortages with increased stimulus (helicopter money), government infrastructure spending and interest rates at 0% (igniting consumerism) will escalate inflation out of control. -- inflation can only be brought under control if interest rates rise, hence tip the balance back to saving rather than spending. 

So allow me to disagree, this is what the fed want! Since the very last thing the Fed want is to raise interest rates. Markets don't set interest rates via the bond market (Fed has done this via QE); but the fed will be forced to in the event of inflation rising out of their control. 

I do agree with your point IRs will probably need to rise quickly in this scenario. But a caveat, inflation figures are fudged to the point that what happens on the ground isnt reflected in public sector pay packets. So I doubt we will ever know the true extent of actual inflation nor an appropriate IR setting. To end this madness we need IRs to be kept above 2% to drive investors away from speculative asset bubbles and into more safer inflation beating returns (bond market). 

 

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3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Oh, what have the U.S. spivs done, they've gone and broken the system.

Your title

UK Interest rates... where will it go within 12 months? I suspect 2-4%

the "2" was a typo surely?

"UK Interest rates... where will it go within 12 months? I suspect -4%

Sounds more likely :(

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15 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This might come in handy for a few people in the next couple of years

 

http://www.n-ram.co.uk/helpful-tools-calculators/rate-rise-calculator

 

e.g.

image.png.692dad22986b0777299c6d1095b15ab0.png

 

image.png.871063a04b7df8b888330e789f9b6c64.png

 

£200 a month increase if rates go up 2%, that 3% rise is more meaty though, £300.

That's not bad at all.  The Boe have been refusing to up rates all this time and that's all it would affact people ?

If anyone is that close to being unable to afford their mortgage they shouldn't be allowed to borrow quite frankly.

Gonna be a lot of upset people 2023 onwards.

 

 

I like your optimism but if there is a way around it you can be sure the government will use it.  As someone said they will just fudge the inflation figures as it's by design and given the amount of backslash they will get if interests go up significantly they will move heaven and earth to stop it or soften the effects somehow.

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13 hours ago, dryrot said:

Your title

UK Interest rates... where will it go within 12 months? I suspect 2-4%

the "2" was a typo surely?

"UK Interest rates... where will it go within 12 months? I suspect -4%

Sounds more likely :(

image.png.6e13c26f537d1321df414f42e3227c35.png

 

Doesn't sound likely at all.

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7 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

IR's should be at least 5% today imo.

Mortgage rates will keep heading highrer now, if IRs go negative a financial bloke has told me they'll go up even more.

Counter intuitive, I know but that's where we are.

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12 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Mortgage rates will keep heading highrer now, if IRs go negative a financial bloke has told me they'll go up even more.

Counter intuitive, I know but that's where we are.

Your financial bloke yearns for the years of when the 3-6-3 Rule applied in banking. 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, tep1 said:

Your financial bloke yearns for the years of when the 3-6-3 Rule applied in banking. 

 

 

 

 

No, he yearns for people to stop being financially illiterate.

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

No, he yearns for people to stop being financially illiterate.

 

Ah he's a good guy in finance, they are rare! Most prefer golf! 🤑

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The next interest rate will be down.  Although fixing into a good low rate deal would be a good idea, 

 

Halifax 10 year fixed rate 1.48% is basically free money- shop around lots of great deals around  

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