So Should You Wait To Buy? Maybe.

[Realistbear]

Given that the UK and US markets share much the same history of booms and busts it pays to get a wide perspective even though the VI spin tends to be the same in both countries (soft landing blah blah).

http://www.realestatejournal.com/columnist...0-fletcher.html

Wall Street Journal

Is the Party Really Over

For the Housing Boom?

By June Fletcher

Anyone who has been reading the newspaper these days has to be nervous about the state of the housing market. Let's look at the statistics: According to the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales are expected to decline 4.7% to 6.74 million this year, down from a record 7.07 million units in 2005. New-home sales are expected to fall 8.5% to 1.17 million from a record 1.28 million last year. The trade group predicts housing starts, or the number of new homes built, will reach 1.87 million units this year, down 9.3% from the year earlier.

Sort of sounds like the party is over, doesn't it?

But wait, there's more: Data keepers in your part of the world aren't too cheery, either. DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla, Calif., information provider, recently reported that

foreclosure activity is on the rise throughout the state. In the Bay area, foreclosures rose 10.5%

in the fourth quarter of 2005 over the year before, due to slowing housing-price appreciation.

People can no longer expect rising home equity to bail them out when they lose their jobs, divorce or suffer other kinds of financial reversals,

the company says. The California Association of Realtors reported that existing

home sales in the state decreased 17.6% in

December from the same month a year earlier.

So should you wait to buy? Maybe

.

If nothing more is fueling the bidding wars in your neighborhood than fear and habit, then it makes sense to wait. Unless a big local employer leaves town, real-estate markets rarely change overnight.

It usually takes several months for sellers to realize a market has shifted and to lower their prices,

and for buyers to understand that they finally have choices and negotiating room.

More on the subject of the falling market:

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/m...0209-simon.html

Highly influential Businessweek say the profits on houses is behind us:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/conte...52/b3965477.htm

Another one from Businessweek--dramatic bubble pops:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/conte...51/b3964052.htm

Edited February 10, 2006 by Realistbear