Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Could an independent Scotland have more sensible house prices?


Recommended Posts

Could an Independent Scotland have lower house prices?

Its a very difficult question because there are too many unknowns. Not quite as speculative as saying after Humans colonised Mars, would the price of houses on Mars be higher or lower than on Earth? But still too many factors to consider.

1. Scotland is wealthier than the rest of the UK apart from London - the accounting of how much money gets sent South and how much sent north is complete male cow ordure, since so much is not accounted for. e.g. VAT reciepts are accounted for at company HQ (often in London), Scottish exports are often trucked through England to the Channel ports, etc. etc. so headline rates of income tax and Barnett expenditure are totally spurious. Best estimates seem to be that Scotland has higher GDP per head, and also higher costs per head because of the lower population density. All in all its probably about evens...

2. Scottish banking and legal systems are as old and independent as English ones so no problem there... Scottish land law is quite a different thing.

3. Scottish public culture is different from England's, generally more "lefty" to use crude phrases... who knows how that plays out though. Probably a lot more public support for social housing etc.

4. Massive depopulation in the North and West of Scotland - you could shovel immigrants up there as fast as they crossed the border and it would only be a good thing. A few hundreds of years ago the population was pretty evenly spread Highlands and Lowlands, until wealthy landowners cleared everyone off the land and sent them overseas, to convert the land into sporting estates or low-maintenance hill farms. There is public appetite for serious land reform, new towns could be built in the North West, there is huge scope for development up there. Anecdotally I heard of places desperate for immigrants to be given leave to stay to run businesses, but immigration policy is set by English ministers who naturally look to English constituents when setting policy, so people who would rightly be seen as excess immigrants in England are deported out of Scotland even though they are wanted there.

5. Scottish people seem to be as much in denial about the total dislocation of the financial system vs. the real economy. That suggests to me that an independent Scotland would stay part of the global fantasy funny money QE system and so there would be trillions of new money sloshing around that would be looking for home => bid up assets => high house prices.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 96
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

22 hours ago, gp_ said:

Immigration is something of an issue because 1) the "small overcrowded island" myth, and 2) unskilled immigrants driving down wages.

it is not a myth it is a small overcrowded island 

I do nit want houses built everywhere the uk is home to wildlife who matter more to me than most immigrants

We do not need unskilled migrants to work in tesco

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, crescent said:

it is not a myth it is a small overcrowded island 

I do nit want houses built everywhere the uk is home to wildlife who matter more to me than most immigrants

Whilst it's true that the UK as a whole is badly overcrowded Scotland isn't, except maybe around the central belt.

It's not true that it's a small island though, Great Britain is the ninth largest island in the world (depending on what you count as an island - ninth counts Australia as a continental landmass rather than an island). At any rate it's pretty big as far as islands go.

Edited by Riedquat
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

I wish we were in the Schengen Area.

Is that because there is a fantastic job that you would get in Nice, if only you were allowed to work there?

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, crescent said:

it is not a myth it is a small overcrowded island 

I do nit want houses built everywhere the uk is home to wildlife who matter more to me than most immigrants

We do not need unskilled migrants to work in tesco

Have you ever ben to the West of Scotland?

Half the country is desolate and abandoned, no people no wildlife, just sheep grouse and abandoned villages:

https://www.scotsman.com/whats-on/arts-and-entertainment/7-villages-emptied-highland-clearances-1447472

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, erat_forte said:

Have you ever ben to the West of Scotland?

Half the country is desolate and abandoned, no people no wildlife, just sheep grouse and abandoned villages:

https://www.scotsman.com/whats-on/arts-and-entertainment/7-villages-emptied-highland-clearances-1447472

Where's the "no wildlife" claim come from?

Restore the Highlands to pre-clearance levels of population and the population density there would still be way, way below the UK average.

And I'd say somewhat deserted but not desolate.

Edited by Riedquat
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Young Turk said:

The USA have this to an even greater extent.

 

I said developed 

aside: pointing that us is also bad doesn’t make this crime committed by 11 years of Tories any worse, at least Biden is trying to do something about these issues 

Edited by yelims
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, yelims said:

I said developed 

Economists consider countries developed if GDP per capita exceeds $25,000. Highly developed countries like the USA exceed $40,000.

I think the fact that these are expressed in US dollars is a clue.

There are some other developed countries which are very unequal in the middle east and the far east.

10 minutes ago, yelims said:

aside: pointing that us is also bad doesn’t make this crime committed by 11 years of Tories any worse, at least Biden is trying to do something about these issues 

Agreed. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

There is unequal and then there is having to use food banks to survive, that’s a failure 

here in Ireland there’s plenty of inequality but you wouldn’t starve or have to avail of food banks as welfare (about 3x more generous thank us) covers food

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/10/2021 at 6:04 PM, Pmax2020 said:

Scotland would be a great place if we didn’t subsidise the royal family, vanity projects in the south, Boris’ flat, Olympic Games and trident. 

This is as true for Wales, Northern Ireland and most of England as it is for Scotland. If the UK got rid of the things you mentioned, would there still be an advantage to an independent Scotland? Or if most of England wanted to keep things the same, but northern England valued the same things as Scotland (as the northern independence movement seems to), would there be an argument for northern England to join an independent Scotland?

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Young Turk said:

This is as true for Wales, Northern Ireland and most of England as it is for Scotland. If the UK got rid of the things you mentioned, would there still be an advantage to an independent Scotland? Or if most of England wanted to keep things the same, but northern England valued the same things as Scotland (as the northern independence movement seems to), would there be an argument for northern England to join an independent Scotland?

I think the fundamental argument for independence is Scotland and England are just too different to share a union. 

Throughout my whole adult life I’ve been ruled by Westminster governments that don’t share the same ideals of our own parliament. 

No greater is the disparity evident than with Brexit. A Tory government elected with a paltry 36.9% vote share claim to have a mandate for an EU referendum that sees Scotland vote distinctly to remain, but England leave. We exit on whim with no plan and amidst a pandemic. Meanwhile our Holyrood elections see a majority (52.1%) vote share for pro-independence parties but guess what... Boris says ‘not a mandate’.

One day we will become independent. It’s only a matter of time when you slap 2 million people in the face the day after their vote is counted.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said:

I think the fundamental argument for independence is Scotland and England are just too different to share a union. 

Throughout my whole adult life I’ve been ruled by Westminster governments that don’t share the same ideals of our own parliament. 

No greater is the disparity evident than with Brexit. A Tory government elected with a paltry 36.9% vote share claim to have a mandate for an EU referendum that sees Scotland vote distinctly to remain, but England leave. We exit on whim with no plan and amidst a pandemic. Meanwhile our Holyrood elections see a majority (52.1%) vote share for pro-independence parties but guess what... Boris says ‘not a mandate’.

One day we will become independent. It’s only a matter of time when you slap 2 million people in the face the day after their vote is counted.

37% voted for Brexit and I agree that wasn't a mandate for Brexit.

33% voted for pro-independence parties in 2021 and I don't think that is a mandate for independence or another vote on independence. 

 

I still wonder why the argument applies to Scotland and not regions of England. The majority of the areas most opposed to Brexit were in London! London should demand independence from Westminster.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/05/2021 at 10:42, micawber said:

I wouldn't fancy your chances of international funding in this instance.

Why not? 

Legally as it's not Scotland's debt there is nothing to walk away from, so no default and Scotland becomes an independent country with zero debt.  I think they would find it very easy and cheap to borrow up to say 70% of GDP.

The rest of the UK on the other hand would find its debt to GDP ratio has just jumped another 10%, not something the markets would be happy about.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why assume the will join the EU, joining the EEA may be a better option. 

The EEA still requires freedom of movement.  The only difference is, there is supposedly an emergency brake, and we've been round that circle before.  Also, I've never heard Gnasher mention the EEA.  The Pipple uh Scawlun demand full EU membership in her world.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, kzb said:

The EEA still requires freedom of movement.  The only difference is, there is supposedly an emergency brake, and we've been round that circle before.  Also, I've never heard Gnasher mention the EEA.  The Pipple uh Scawlun demand full EU membership in her world.

Scotland wants FoM and I assume they will have learnt to use the available controls to make it work for them, so that's not a problem.

You are right about no mention of EEA but they should be considering it, even if only to have some leverage in the EU entry negotiations.  I think Scotland would be more comfortable in the EEA than the EU and the entry negotiations would be far simpler.

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Scotland wants FoM and I assume they will have learnt to use the available controls to make it work for them, so that's not a problem.

You are right about no mention of EEA but they should be considering it, even if only to have some leverage in the EU entry negotiations.  I think Scotland would be more comfortable in the EEA than the EU and the entry negotiations would be far simpler.

Maybe the fact they have not even mentioned the EEA tells us how clueless they really are.  Alternatively (and this is my preferred theory) Gnasher and Salmond have seen the figures and they are both clever enough to know leaving the UK is a non-starter.  It suits them just fine blaming England whilst extracting more and more money off us.

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, kzb said:

 ...clever enough to know leaving the UK is a non-starter.  It suits them just fine blaming England whilst extracting more and more money off us.

I have never understood why the Conservatives especially are so keen to keep Scotland.

Let Scotland go and they are virtually guaranteed to be in government in RumpUK forever. 

Add in all the money they would apparently save by not paying the Scots.  So it's a win/win situation. 

The question then is, what is so important about Scotland that they don't welcome the chance to let them go?  It can't be about defence - I'm sure there are many places in England that would love to host the Faslane subs.  Is it some psychological disorder in the Conservative leadership which can only be sated by dominating another country that doesn't go along with their mantra?  Is the seat on the UN security council that important, would it even be lost if Scotland seceded?

One of the great mysteries.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ignorantbliss said:

One of the great mysteries.

I guess it is really.  Maybe it is a loss of territory and population, seen as reducing their importance.  Or access to fishing and grouse shooting?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kzb said:

I guess it is really.  Maybe it is a loss of territory and population, seen as reducing their importance.  Or access to fishing and grouse shooting?

Plus loss of the Trident base/facilities would mean the end of the Nuclear deterrent and the UK's membership of the UN Security Council.     

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why not? 

Legally as it's not Scotland's debt there is nothing to walk away from, so no default and Scotland becomes an independent country with zero debt.  I think they would find it very easy and cheap to borrow up to say 70% of GDP.

The rest of the UK on the other hand would find its debt to GDP ratio has just jumped another 10%, not something the markets would be happy about.  

It's all hypothetical. We'll just have to guess at what the markets will make of a country walking away from it's obvious obligations. I suspect that the EU would also take a dim view of a country that finds it so easy to stiff a neighbour. They'll wonder whether they should let in a country which considers itself so exceptional. Lastly, the UK might just exact revenge through monetary strategy and border controls on Scottish exports. So not a wise move.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Ignorantbliss said:
10 hours ago, kzb said:

 

I have never understood why the Conservatives especially are so keen to keep Scotland.

Let Scotland go and they are virtually guaranteed to be in government in RumpUK forever. 

Add in all the money they would apparently save by not paying the Scots.  So it's a win/win situation. 

 

The whole being more than the sum of its parts perhaps?  
 

As a Scottish descendent brought up in southern England and educated in the north, I can testify that all parts of the U.K. are different. That does not mean we will be better of without each other. 

Edited by 14stFlyer
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.