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Could an independent Scotland have more sensible house prices?


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20 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

Be nice to think so, but I fear otherwise.

I guess prices (outside of Edinburgh) are already more sane (relative to salaries). I suspect that the initial economic shock from independence would cause a housing market recession (but that would probably be cold comfort if you have lost a job / taken a wage cut)

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I guess that depends on the currency.

£ = financial repression and high house prices until the wider UK raises/collapses/tapers stimulous

Euro = Low rates > Boom then collapse as they cannot MMT/QE their own currency as done centrally.

S£ = High debts and commitments may well = higher rates = falls

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10 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

I guess that depends on the currency.

£ = financial repression and high house prices until the wider UK raises/collapses/tapers stimulous

Euro = Low rates > Boom then collapse as they cannot MMT/QE their own currency as done centrally.

S£ = High debts and commitments may well = higher rates = falls

can the first possibility actually happen? wouldn't there likely be a massive recession in the case of independence, with widespread job losses?

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Scottish independence is even less defined than brexit was. 

No idea on currency, tax, NHS, defence, law, regulations, etc.  

If Scottish get independence, I suspect you'll be able to pick up properties cheaper as businesses move south of the border just for the convenience. Likewise with people running away from the huge increases in tax, etc. 

However, do you want to live somewhere where you give up 60%+ of your salary?

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35 minutes ago, andrewwk said:

I guess prices (outside of Edinburgh) are already more sane (relative to salaries). I suspect that the initial economic shock from independence would cause a housing market recession (but that would probably be cold comfort if you have lost a job / taken a wage cut)

With av. income in Dundee at £26k and av. HP at £180k, not so much! With a lot of ex-council stock and decrepit tenement flats from the 1800's dragging averages down, I suspect the price for 'decent' housing is even higher. e.g. £180k is the starting price for new build shoe boxes...

57 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

Be nice to think so, but I fear otherwise.

I tend to agree, but it all depends on the length of time it takes to recover from the inevitable financial impact.

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2 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

Scottish independence is even less defined than brexit was. 

No idea on currency, tax, NHS, defence, law, regulations, etc.  

If Scottish get independence, I suspect you'll be able to pick up properties cheaper as businesses move south of the border just for the convenience. Likewise with people running away from the huge increases in tax, etc. 

However, do you want to live somewhere where you give up 60%+ of your salary?

You don't seem to know much about Scotland?

Scotland runs it's own NHS (on average, better than the other NHS organisations in the UK), has it's own legal system and it's own 'regulations' in many areas. There are several trains of thought on currency, from using Sterling for a period to using a Scottish pound as is and recalling Scottish bank deposits from the BoE vaults (Google it!). Technically Scotland has no debt, any Treasury debt that an iScotland agreed to repay to the Treasury would be negotiated, but we could walk away from it.

As for your "60%+ of your salary" nonsense, salaries in Scotland are 2nd only to London and the SE.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/416139/full-time-annual-salary-in-the-uk-by-region/

Maybe do just the tiniest bit of research before you post on something you seem to know very little about?

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17 minutes ago, AThirdWay said:

You don't seem to know much about Scotland?

Scotland runs it's own NHS (on average, better than the other NHS organisations in the UK), has it's own legal system and it's own 'regulations' in many areas. There are several trains of thought on currency, from using Sterling for a period to using a Scottish pound as is and recalling Scottish bank deposits from the BoE vaults (Google it!). Technically Scotland has no debt, any Treasury debt that an iScotland agreed to repay to the Treasury would be negotiated, but we could walk away from it.

As for your "60%+ of your salary" nonsense, salaries in Scotland are 2nd only to London and the SE.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/416139/full-time-annual-salary-in-the-uk-by-region/

Maybe do just the tiniest bit of research before you post on something you seem to know very little about?

Yes, I thought it was pretty well known that Scotland is a fair bit wealthier than UK ex London (+environs). No doubt you guys could plot a credible economic course post-independence. One issue, as I understand it, is actually the UK's trade deal with the EU - currently most of Scotland's exports go to the rest of the UK and going back into the EU would put (in effect) a hard border between Scotland and the UK (but at the same time, being in the EU is probably in the best interests of Scotland, right?). maybe the answer is to wait until a few years of hardship and mayhem force the UK into a customs union / back into the single market and then go for independence?

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Are house prices mentioned at all in the SNP Manifesto?  Has HPI ever been addressed as a  campaigning issue in Scotland?

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37 minutes ago, AThirdWay said:

...any Treasury debt that an iScotland agreed to repay to the Treasury would be negotiated, but we could walk away from it.

I wouldn't fancy your chances of international funding in this instance.

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1 hour ago, Trampa501 said:

Be nice to think so, but I fear otherwise.

Houses would be dirt cheap in a few years. Do you know any 3rd world countries with expensive property? 

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22 minutes ago, markyh said:

Houses would be dirt cheap in a few years. Do you know any 3rd world countries with expensive property? 

to be fair, if you think independent Scotland would be a 3rd world country, the same is probably true of post-Brexit UK as a whole.

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28 minutes ago, markyh said:

Houses would be dirt cheap in a few years. Do you know any 3rd world countries with expensive property? 

UK? I mean what sort of a developed country has food banks everywhere?

Edited by yelims
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I think Scottish house prices (outside of posh Edinburgh tourist hotspots) are extremely sensible. I've been to Perth many times and marveled at the houses available walking distance to the centre, with country access, good size gardens, parking, river views. 

If anything independence might push prices up, especially if they adopt a low tax system to encourage inward investment. Look at Guernsey house prices. 

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1 hour ago, AThirdWay said:

You don't seem to know much about Scotland?

Scotland runs it's own NHS (on average, better than the other NHS organisations in the UK), has it's own legal system and it's own 'regulations' in many areas. There are several trains of thought on currency, from using Sterling for a period to using a Scottish pound as is and recalling Scottish bank deposits from the BoE vaults (Google it!). Technically Scotland has no debt, any Treasury debt that an iScotland agreed to repay to the Treasury would be negotiated, but we could walk away from it.

As for your "60%+ of your salary" nonsense, salaries in Scotland are 2nd only to London and the SE.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/416139/full-time-annual-salary-in-the-uk-by-region/

Maybe do just the tiniest bit of research before you post on something you seem to know very little about?

The big issues seem to me: 1. Can Scotland be economically viable as an independent nation (given the current £2,500 subsidy per head) and 2. Can they get permission to do whatever they want up there without getting independence?  

That's just my down south take on it, so do please correct me. 

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1 hour ago, AThirdWay said:

There are several trains of thought on currency, from using Sterling for a period to using a Scottish pound as is and recalling Scottish bank deposits from the BoE vaults (Google it!). Technically Scotland has no debt, any Treasury debt that an iScotland agreed to repay to the Treasury would be negotiated, but we could walk away from it.

That'd theoretically suck for you guys though right? If I were a Scottish voter I'd prefer union over becoming an economic colony of the Bank of England with no say (even if just for a period), also you'd then be banking on the EU cutting you a 'special case' deal to rejoin given their stipulation that states seeking to become members have central bank/Interest Rate independence, they (the EU) also would presumably want you to take the Euro? I'm not wholly against that myself but not sure about Scottish voters broadly?

The other argument I've heard touted by the SNP is running a surplus thus raising enough reserves over time to form their own central bank though again given the current level of public spending I'm not sure many Scots would vote for 5-10 years at least of austerity (economic research backed by the SNP showing that sort of timeframe)

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1 hour ago, kzb said:

Are house prices mentioned at all in the SNP Manifesto?  Has HPI ever been addressed as a  campaigning issue in Scotland?

Not really. As in most things, they pretty much follow the UK.gov line with the odd nod to land reform and UBI.... Nothing ever comes of it.

The SNP are a means to an end. Don't get me wrong, they perform well as a government in comparison to the other UK parliaments (although every parliament in the UK has a different party in control, mostly you can't get a fag paper between 'em!) but I require them to deliver another independence vote as a priority. Once we've got a vote for independence, THEN we've got a chance to change how the country is run. The cost of housing could be right up there, but it's not a given.

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1 hour ago, micawber said:

I wouldn't fancy your chances of international funding in this instance.

It's a matter of legal commitment isn't it? The simple fact is that the Treasury issues UK debt, none of that can be transferred to an iScotland legally. We CAN agree to fund some of the repayment of that debt, but it would be via some agreement between the Scottish and UK Treasuries. THAT will need to be negotiated.

So how about this argument... Scotland will take on a percentage share of historical UK debt MINUS any historical surplus Scotland has contributed to the Treasury over the years. Sound fair?

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44 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

The big issues seem to me: 1. Can Scotland be economically viable as an independent nation (given the current £2,500 subsidy per head) and 2. Can they get permission to do whatever they want up there without getting independence?  

That's just my down south take on it, so do please correct me. 

The Barnett formula is often quoted as a reason for Scotland being better off in the UK, but it's full of holes. What is not taken into account? The cost of hard projection of power. The majority of Scotland don't want nukes, don't want foreign wars and don't want to bomb the $h!t out of countries via 3rd parties. Supporting the huge infrastructure projects in England (I highlight projects in England as, well, I can't see many in Wales or Ireland atm, so no cries of anti-English please!), etc. etc.

As per previous post, Scotland is in no way the basket-case it's made up to be, with the highest wages and GDP of any area in the UK outside of London and the SE.

The final point is, given that the above is the case for a Scotland IN the union, isn't that making a case to LEAVE the union?

On your 2nd point... It appears we have to ask Boris to even have a referendum and he's already threatened to knock back some Holyrood legislation, essentially because it might mean WM will be impacted. The short answer is no, we can't change anything that is not devolved.

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1 hour ago, yelims said:

UK? I mean what sort of a developed country has food banks everywhere?

Sorry but 90% people at foodbanks are feckless.  If we had a Digital blockchain £ already and the foodbank could do an assessment if the person is illegible to use the food bank via blockchain analysis, it would go like this . 

1) Spent money of fags not food, ****** off

2) Spent money on booze not food, ****** off

3) Spent money of drugs not food, ****** off

4) Spent money on Sky TV, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Apple Tv, Disney TV , Playstation online, Xbox live, any other subscription entertainment service, ****** off

5) Spent money on new mobile contract and lots of Data, not food, ****** off

6) Spent money on fashion clothing, not food, ****** off

7) Spent money on fast food / takeaways not basic foods to cook with, ****** off. 

Basically if it could be determined using chain analysis, you lifestyle didnt consist of only, shelter and heating, freeview TV and TV licence, basic internet , and basic mobile, economical food shopping, anything else is feckless to waste instead of feeding yourself, then the foodbank should turn you away for 1 week. 

Once you are really really starving, you wont waste money on stuff you cant afford.  

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43 minutes ago, CityLAD88888 said:

That'd theoretically suck for you guys though right? If I were a Scottish voter I'd prefer union over becoming an economic colony of the Bank of England with no say (even if just for a period), also you'd then be banking on the EU cutting you a 'special case' deal to rejoin given their stipulation that states seeking to become members have central bank/Interest Rate independence, they (the EU) also would presumably want you to take the Euro? I'm not wholly against that myself but not sure about Scottish voters broadly?

The other argument I've heard touted by the SNP is running a surplus thus raising enough reserves over time to form their own central bank though again given the current level of public spending I'm not sure many Scots would vote for 5-10 years at least of austerity (economic research backed by the SNP showing that sort of timeframe)

I don't support using Sterling myself, but I can understand how the more risk-averse would go for it. I don't even buy the premise that Scotland WOULD rejoin the EU and adopt the Euro. Lets face it, after 4-5 years of being outside the EU, the Scots people might be more inclined to align itself financially with the UK than the EU. Especially given the performance of UK negotiating teams of late!

There could be a way forward though, and that is simply to make every Scottish pound note legal tender in Scotland and kick start Scottish Treasury reserves with the amount of Sterling currently deposited with the BoE, which is equal to the value of Scottish banknotes in circulation..

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/banknotes/scottish-and-northern-ireland-banknotes

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