Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Anger, bidding wars and spiralling prices - what it's really like for buyers right now in Manchester's 'crazy' property market


Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, quilan said:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/property/anger-bidding-wars-spiralling-prices-20520474

This is an accurate picture of the current situation in the NW. Madness. 

Manchester is an odd market and this article outlines this disparity quite well.

  • Those with decent jobs all want to live in a small handful of areas (mostly in Trafford and parts of Stockport), so these areas have always been competitive
  • Those in 'blue collar' jobs or tax credits look in Salford/Wigan/Thameside/Rochdale with a budget around 100-120K
  • No one touches the city centre flats except overseas/southern investors who view central as universally best in all cases

There is a lot of hot air from the stamp duty holiday. I've seen it first hand here. People also don't understand what is actually ending and when.  2nd time buyers and landlords are legitimately in a hurry to complete before July / October, but FTBers really should be in no rush given their 300K exemption is reinstated from July. Neither the MEN journos nor the Joe Public comments point this out to the FTBers in the article. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

@voy-por and another post to add to the extensive list I gave you on the other thread about bidding wars, sealed bids and not being able to secure viewings. 

 

@flatnose what you have posted doesn't really demonstrate any sort of trend. There are always going to be house price reductions as the tactic to selling a house is put it on for a top dollar (kite flying) price, see if anyone bites and then reduce the price. There is nothing new there whether in boom or recession, it's just the best way to discover the value that someone might pay. From Rightmove:

'Properties in Kendal had an overall average price of £232,544 over the last year.

The majority of sales in Kendal during the last year were semi-detached properties, selling for an average price of £231,104. Terraced properties sold for an average of £206,754, with detached properties fetching £352,271.

Overall, sold prices in Kendal over the last year were 1% up on the previous year and 9% up on the 2018 peak of £213,930.'

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/kendal.html

The above doesn't really paint a picture of a falling market, or one where properties aren't transacting. 

 

 

What I can find for Lancaster supports your view that there is a bit of a slowing down, but again I question what will then happen to prices if supply is lowered? Onwards and upwards I would think.

 

'There were 4.1k property sales in Lancaster postcode area in the previous twelve months and sales dropped by 27.5% (-1.7k transactions). 111 properties, 2.7% were sales of a newly built property. Most properties were sold in the £100k-£150k price range with 881 (21.5%) properties sold, followed by £150k-£200k price range with 814 (19.9%) properties sold.'

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/Lancaster-property-transactions.html

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:
10 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

@voy-por and another post to add to the extensive list I gave you on the other thread about bidding wars, sealed bids and not being able to secure viewings. 

 

@flatnose what you have posted doesn't really demonstrate any sort of trend. There are always going to be house price reductions as the tactic to selling a house is put it on for a top dollar (kite flying) price, see if anyone bites and then reduce the price. There is nothing new there whether in boom or recession, it's just the best way to discover the value that someone might pay. From Rightmove:

'Properties in Kendal had an overall average price of £232,544 over the last year.

The majority of sales in Kendal during the last year were semi-detached properties, selling for an average price of £231,104. Terraced properties sold for an average of £206,754, with detached properties fetching £352,271.

Overall, sold prices in Kendal over the last year were 1% up on the previous year and 9% up on the 2018 peak of £213,930.'

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/kendal.html

The above doesn't really paint a picture of a falling market, or one where properties aren't transacting. 

 

 

What I can find for Lancaster supports your view that there is a bit of a slowing down, but again I question what will then happen to prices if supply is lowered? Onwards and upwards I would think.

 

'There were 4.1k property sales in Lancaster postcode area in the previous twelve months and sales dropped by 27.5% (-1.7k transactions). 111 properties, 2.7% were sales of a newly built property. Most properties were sold in the £100k-£150k price range with 881 (21.5%) properties sold, followed by £150k-£200k price range with 814 (19.9%) properties sold.'

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/Lancaster-property-transactions.html

 

 

Nice summary and thanks for the link to plumpot, very good resource

Couple of points though:

The Lancaster post code area includes Kendal...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LA_postcode_area so you are contradicting yourself slightly in your post. Indeed the Lancashire postcode area covers 17 towns in Lancashire, South Cumbria and N. Yorkshire. Many of these properties are in National Parks and areas of outstanding beauty.  

As I have posted (listed above) before a fair number of properties have been on the market since 2019. 

If there is a shortage of properties for sale, where are people going to move to? How much longer is it going to take for chains to complete?  Indeed how many chains are going to complete before the stamp duty ends and then how many chains will collapse due to an overstretched offer based on completed prior to the stamp duty ending or a refusal to mortgage due to the banks valuation of the property.

No doubt time will tell...

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, flatnose said:

Nice summary and thanks for the link to plumpot, very good resource

Couple of points though:

The Lancaster post code area includes Kendal...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LA_postcode_area so you are contradicting yourself slightly in your post. Indeed the Lancashire postcode area covers 17 towns in Lancashire, South Cumbria and N. Yorkshire. Many of these properties are in National Parks and areas of outstanding beauty.  

As I have posted (listed above) before a fair number of properties have been on the market since 2019. 

If there is a shortage of properties for sale, where are people going to move to? How much longer is it going to take for chains to complete?  Indeed how many chains are going to complete before the stamp duty ends and then how many chains will collapse due to an overstretched offer based on completed prior to the stamp duty ending or a refusal to mortgage due to the banks valuation of the property.

No doubt time will tell...

 

 

 

As with all these things, time will tell indeed. My personal feeling is that the end of stamp duty is going to make very little difference to anything. There will be some collapsed sales just as there always are, but I don't foresee any sort of mad rush for the door. Once you get  into the back end of the buying process there is already a lot of money invested in legal fees, conveyancing etc etc, so walking away is going to hurt. If I were making an offer today, I would do so under the supposition that I am not going to beat the stamp duty holiday, and anyone with any sense will think similarly, therefore I don't think this is going to be a cliff edge come the end of next month. Indeed for many properties it will make no difference as they aren't going to pay stamp duty anyway. 

As per previous posts, for me it is another two months of strong growth and then a flattening of figures for the rest of the year. I predicted a 5% rise at the start of this year, and we are currently approaching 10. It has to slow down at some point, and for me autum and into xmas will be largely flat, maybe even slightly down, but I don't see the rises to date being reversed. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

 

There is a lot of hot air from the stamp duty holiday. I've seen it first hand here. People also don't understand what is actually ending and when.  2nd time buyers and landlords are legitimately in a hurry to complete before July / October, but FTBers really should be in no rush given their 300K exemption is reinstated from July. Neither the MEN journos nor the Joe Public comments point this out to the FTBers in the article. 

Doesn't surprise me if FTBrs are engaging in the mania, people are like that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, flatnose said:

I guess it's very localised. There are some crazy hot spots in the wider region but perhaps have to be careful of such generalisation. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

Manchester is an odd market and this article outlines this disparity quite well.

  • Those with decent jobs all want to live in a small handful of areas (mostly in Trafford and parts of Stockport), so these areas have always been competitive
  • Those in 'blue collar' jobs or tax credits look in Salford/Wigan/Thameside/Rochdale with a budget around 100-120K
  • No one touches the city centre flats except overseas/southern investors who view central as universally best in all cases

There is a lot of hot air from the stamp duty holiday. I've seen it first hand here. People also don't understand what is actually ending and when.  2nd time buyers and landlords are legitimately in a hurry to complete before July / October, but FTBers really should be in no rush given their 300K exemption is reinstated from July. Neither the MEN journos nor the Joe Public comments point this out to the FTBers in the article. 

Agree. I had to read the details on the different brackets and different dates to understand what's happening when. It is a confusing situation around SDLT. Perhaps government intended that? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

No good is going to come from this. Seems crazier than the mid-late 2000s. What was 1988 like?

1988 felt like this, a crazed end of days panic. My parents sold our house during the ramp up and couldn't find anywhere to move to (long story), resulting in us having to move into a flat for a year and needed lump sum from grandparents to cover cost of our next house as it had gone up so much in the interim. Lucky we had that option.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

No good is going to come from this. Seems crazier than the mid-late 2000s. What was 1988 like?

The Fed will tighten policy a bit to dampen the frothy markets. They will aim to do it just a little to avoid a recession.

Yelen had pretty much said this is what will happen. And Andrew Bailey has said no-one will be protecting crypto owners when this happens.

Edited by Si1
Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The Fed will tighten policy a bit to dampen the frothy markets. They will aim to do it just a little to avoid a recession.

Yelen had pretty much said this is what will happen. And Andrew Bailey has said no-one will be protecting crypto owners when this happens.

Another thread derailed into crypto. What does crypto have to do with a housing market in manchester? 🤣

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Another thread derailed into crypto. What does crypto have to do with a housing market in manchester? 🤣

The fact you don't know that is telling.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Oh no I know Baileys comment has absolutely nothing to do with the housing market in Manchester. There was no need to add that sentence.

Straw man. Not even a good try.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Si1 said:

The Fed will tighten policy a bit to dampen the frothy markets. They will aim to do it just a little to avoid a recession

Possibly. But if I had £1 for every time TPTB said they would raise tighten policy/IRs...

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, dryrot said:

Possibly. But if I had £1 for every time TPTB said they would raise tighten policy/IRs...

True. There's a very wide concensus now that we will see some inflation. This isn't even a debate any more. The debate centres around whether it will be manageable with careful tightening or not. I can cite Janet Yellen, Paul Krugman and Bootle saying it will be manageable and that IR rises could be limited. But no-one has really said they can't happen. And some people say the ensuing inflation will not actually be manageable. There isn't even a debate over whether inflation is coming or not 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Si1 said:

True. There's a very wide concensus now that we will see some inflation. This isn't even a debate any more. The debate centres around whether it will be manageable with careful tightening or not. I can cite Janet Yellen, Paul Krugman and Bootle saying it will be manageable and that IR rises could be limited. But no-one has really said they can't happen. And some people say the ensuing inflation will not actually be manageable. There isn't even a debate over whether inflation is coming or not 

This is the key point. Inflation is coming and will emerge even in the (fiddled) official figures. What we need is a nice, old fashioned IR increase. I’ll believe it when we see it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.