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Millennials own just 3% of all Household Wealth!!!


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3 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Couples, separately while still single in their 20s with decent jobs, bought flats in the area between 2000-2007 while banks were handing out loans. Maybe bought for around £150-200k? Examples:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=70691181&sale=92333187&country=england

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=82426351&sale=92332902&country=england

Couples meet around 2012, decide to live in one of the flats for a while together, rent the other one. These people live close to their city offices, work hard, get promotions and end up on large combined income, definitely > £200k

So these would be late Gen X or early Millennials then?  Making £500k on HPI and on joint incomes only £200k ?

I see what you mean, life must be tough for them compared to their parents.

3 hours ago, dugsbody said:

People don't understand how much wealth has been "created" by low interest rates and gifted to existing asset owners. They also don't realise how many well paying jobs there are in London. The average is not an indicator of the top 10%.

I guess not.

Still thanks for the honest reply and I think we are getting somewhere now.  Basically, London is on a different planet to the rest of Britain.  So how has this come about and what can be done about it?

 

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3 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

Succinctly you have jobs paying much more in London within commutable radius than in Blackpool.

Just like idea of HS2 pushed up Brum prices as suddenly a commuter option.

There was an IT bod in London getting paid 3x equiv of a better lad in Manchester, simply a London factor and they had to offer that to get applicants. The Manchester lad was on £25k and found out, wasn't happy, but he couldn't uproot the family to go down south. Then he chatted with the new lad and found out despite that wage his quality of life was cack as everything priced accordingly for London.

I think we are getting somewhere now.   Is the real problem London compared to rest of Britain?

I would've thought nearly all native London boomers would've cashed in and moved to Essex some years ago now.  They were leaving at the rate of 200,000 a year I recall.

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29 minutes ago, kzb said:

How do you know?  If someone said prices would double 2009-2020 back in 2009 I would have thought they were nuts.  But here we are.

It is an opinion stated as a fact. What is your opinion?

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8 minutes ago, Notting Hell said:

It is an opinion stated as a fact. What is your opinion?

I'd say London prices are unsustainable and they will crash.  But I've been saying that for 20 years and I am always wrong.  It's the only thing I am ever wrong about.

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29 minutes ago, kzb said:

I think we are getting somewhere now.   Is the real problem London compared to rest of Britain?

I would've thought nearly all native London boomers would've cashed in and moved to Essex some years ago now.  They were leaving at the rate of 200,000 a year I recall.

Nope as in Blackpool vs the avg income for locals is £98k affordible, possibly not. That and as coastal towns became care dumping grounds you are competing with LL who can make a mint off the state.

Work out avg wage of an area and then try joint income on the MMR affordibility scale. London is a function of the wages offered in a vicious cycle.

Doesn't sound like a London only issue to me sounds like everything is priced to as much as people can borrow and a little bit extra to soak up the deposit.

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31 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Nope as in Blackpool vs the avg income for locals is £98k affordible, possibly not. That and as coastal towns became care dumping grounds you are competing with LL who can make a mint off the state.

Work out avg wage of an area and then try joint income on the MMR affordibility scale. London is a function of the wages offered in a vicious cycle.

Doesn't sound like a London only issue to me sounds like everything is priced to as much as people can borrow and a little bit extra to soak up the deposit.

The median income in Hackney is indeed higher than in Blackpool, but it isn't 11 times higher like the house prices.

The Nationwide affordability index shows median disposable income versus mortgage payment by region.

In most regions the affordability is about the same as 1983, the big exception being London of course.

 

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2 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

It is. Just not in housing.

Where do you think the opportunities are? My strategy is to minimise housing cost to free funds for elsewhere.

Edited by Notting Hell
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8 hours ago, kzb said:

In most regions the affordability is about the same as 1983, the big exception being London of course

Go have a look at ONS stats that do regional avg wage breakdowns. Real terms people in all regions down about 4% in wages since 2008.

2020 West Mids & NW avg wage is around £26,800 according to ONS. People under 30 are below avg generally, people in 40s over that.

Same time WM avg house price £200k and NW £171K according to Nationwide. So 6.5x for NW and as only one wage could buy house in 80s I think that blows up that little affordibility idea the same.

I do wonder why you keep persisting with notions that everyone knows aren't born out by facts and having to have them presented over and over?

Anecdotal but - cousin bought her parents house in 2017 at age 40 doing same job her mum did and a husband in a profession that would have paid more than her Dad back then.

Her folks bought in late 1970s and sold it to her under asking as she's made no secret of she couldn't have afforded a place with nice garden otherwise.

Same no of kids just had later, not out like her parents were in 20s down Working Mens club and her week in Spain probably equiv relative cost to the folks doing the UK hols to places like Ilfracombe back then. They do have 2 cars but one is a cheap runabout because both kids are in schools miles apart and that same job as her mum is now a 25 min commute not a 10 min walk away.

So there is an example of people not able to afford the parental home and not because they bought expensive toast toppings and a Costa coffee instead.

Another example near where grew up 2 good paid walkable manufacturers in 80s. Now both are housing estates since early 2000s. Another opportunity gone for the millennials to go into a job like their folks straight out of school into a job for life, many Gen X-ers were made redundant.

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13 hours ago, kzb said:

How do you know?  If someone said prices would double 2009-2020 back in 2009 I would have thought they were nuts.  But here we are.

Because interest rates have a floor and we're near the floor. The plummeting interest rates of the last few decades has sent house prices skyrocketing. 

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13 hours ago, kzb said:

So these would be late Gen X or early Millennials then?  Making £500k on HPI and on joint incomes only £200k ?

I see what you mean, life must be tough for them compared to their parents.

I guess not.

Still thanks for the honest reply and I think we are getting somewhere now.  Basically, London is on a different planet to the rest of Britain.  So how has this come about and what can be done about it?

 

The people that I am speaking about are the lucky Gen-X'ers. They bought at the right time, just like I could have done, in my 20s. I never did and have paid the price of years of extra work to get to the same wealth as them. 

This path was still available for early Gen-X, but has been continuously cut off for later generations. Boomers who owned a house (which is the vast majority) have profited from this entire thing. And by profited, I simply mean they lived in their nice house throughout their working lives which a millennial may actually never afford, even in retirement.

The flat that was bought by someone in their 20s with a reasonable salary (say top 30% London), is now cut off to that equivalent person today. They can no longer afford it. If everyone was equal and each generation had the same opportunities this would not be the case.

I don't know why I bother explaining all of this to you. It is so incredibly obvious, but you will not understand because you're motived to not understand.

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2 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

Same time WM avg house price £200k and NW £171K according to Nationwide. So 6.5x for NW and as only one wage could buy house in 80s I think that blows up that little affordibility idea the same.

I do wonder why you keep persisting with notions that everyone knows aren't born out by facts and having to have them presented over and over?

Yes but the index uses mortgage payments, not the house value.  Because the interest rate is a lot lower now than in 1983 the payment per unit of money borrowed is also lower.

So yes, the house value has gone up by more than incomes, but your monthly mortgage payment has not. 

2 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

Another example near where grew up 2 good paid walkable manufacturers in 80s. Now both are housing estates since early 2000s. Another opportunity gone for the millennials to go into a job like their folks straight out of school into a job for life, many Gen X-ers were made redundant.

Again people are forgetting about the Thatcher years.  The early 1980's were the very definition of what you are talking about here.  There was mass unemployment.  Large cities like Liverpool and Sheffield were virtually destroyed.

Unemployment was on the increase pre-Thatcher of course and the late 1970's were no bed of roses for jobs.  Jobs for life were over with earlier than you think. 

Basically all I recall is one long recession with no jobs between about 1977 and Tony Blair.

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1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

Because interest rates have a floor and we're near the floor. The plummeting interest rates of the last few decades has sent house prices skyrocketing. 

They've been on the floor since 2009 but London prices have doubled since then.

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28 minutes ago, kzb said:

Yes but the index uses mortgage payments, not the house value.  Because the interest rate is a lot lower now than in 1983 the payment per unit of money borrowed is also lower.

So yes, the house value has gone up by more than incomes, but your monthly mortgage payment has not. 

Interest rates have successively fallen for Boomers, for Gen-x or Millennials the only way is up or flat.

I mean come on you are really dragging up some ancient ground that has been torn apart years ago. 

The affordibility is also skewed by longer mortgages and if a 20 something boomer bought at 25 yr they were done by 45. Avg buyer no 36... on 25 yr or longer mortgage so thats going to be fun when earnings potential drop in 60s

 

Edited by Staffsknot
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7 minutes ago, kzb said:

They've been on the floor since 2009 but London prices have doubled since then.

If only we knew of something that happened that increased cheap loans and borrowing... sure there was something that pumped money into global asset prices and sent investors looking for yield. That's the Q... E wonder what

I mean come on this is borderline trolling now

Edited by Staffsknot
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6 minutes ago, kzb said:

They've been on the floor since 2009 but London prices have doubled since then.

Mortgage rates have trended down, they didn't instantly hit 1.4%

I know, because I viewed a flat in 2009 and was offered ~4% mortgage rate. A few years later I bought my first house at 3% interest rate. It's now 1.4%.

Also, terms have gone outward. 25 years was the norm, then 30, now 35.

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6 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Interest rates have successively fallen for Boomers, for Gen-x or Millennials the only way is up or flat.

I mean come on you are really dragging up some ancient ground that has been torn apart years ago. 

The affordibility is also skewed by longer mortgages and if a 20 something boomer bought at 25 yr they were done by 45. Avg buyer no 36... on 25 yr or longer mortgage so thats going to be fun when earnings potential drop in 60s

 

kzb is up there with the biggest trolls or cooks on this site. He's basically arguing flat earth stuff right now. He refuses to acknowledge what is accepted wisdom now.

We won't convince him, but there may be value in highflying the obstacles the younger generation has to face with people like him in charge.

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37 minutes ago, kzb said:

So yes, the house value has gone up by more than incomes, but your monthly mortgage payment has not. 

Yes, exactly!!!

But from there you have to understand further why this isn't a good thing. Our generations will still be paying off those houses for years longer than the boomer generation had to and we are just completely priced out of owning the same quality that boomers did at the same age.

Edited by dugsbody
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1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

This path was still available for early Gen-X, but has been continuously cut off for later generations.

If they were in their 20's in 2000-2007 they were late Gen X/early Millennial.

1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

he flat that was bought by someone in their 20s with a reasonable salary (say top 30% London), is now cut off to that equivalent person today. They can no longer afford it. If everyone was equal and each generation had the same opportunities this would not be the case.

That should be true in London given the prices, but not in many regions of the country.

But there is still the fact that people in London are actually buying these things.  There is reportedly large demand and they seem to afford the ridiculous prices, and I've already said I don't understand what is going on in London. 

You seemed to understand, and your explanation is that a lot of young people have done very well for themselves, the opposite of what is being argued on this thread.

I was expecting the explanation to be foreign investors playing BTL and/or immigrants supported by benefits.  But no, you are saying it is because people are well-off.

BTW, not only is London cut off from the poorer young natives, it is also cut off for older non-Londoners like me.  The majority of the population in fact.

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16 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Interest rates have successively fallen for Boomers, for Gen-x or Millennials the only way is up or flat.

I mean come on you are really dragging up some ancient ground that has been torn apart years ago. 

The affordibility is also skewed by longer mortgages and if a 20 something boomer bought at 25 yr they were done by 45. Avg buyer no 36... on 25 yr or longer mortgage so thats going to be fun when earnings potential drop in 60s

 

Well I've only just paid off my mortgage last year.  I certainly was not done by 45, I couldn't have paid it off then.

Interest rates, well that's always been a gamble for every generation.  Nothing new there.  But is anyone predicting large interest rate increases in the foreseeable future ?

As I say, stop looking at it like a financial investment vehicle.  Older people never thought of it like that when we bought.  This is a relatively recent mindset that has developed.  The way to thing about it is, is my rent more than my mortgage.  In most cases that will be yes.

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18 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

kzb is up there with the biggest trolls or cooks on this site. He's basically arguing flat earth stuff right now. He refuses to acknowledge what is accepted wisdom now.

We won't convince him, but there may be value in highflying the obstacles the younger generation has to face with people like him in charge.

So what exactly are you trying to convince me of?

That boomers' houses or pensions should be confiscated?  That seems to be the message.

Let me assure you I am not in charge of anything.  If I was things would indeed be very different.  Like I keep saying, no-one ever voted for high house prices, tuition fees, exporting jobs or doing away with DB pensions.  These things were outside democratic control.

OK the estate agents would vote for high house prices but that is true of every generation.

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23 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Yes, exactly!!!

But from there you have to understand further why this isn't a good thing. Our generations will still be paying off those houses for years longer than the boomer generation had to and we are just completely priced out of owning the same quality that boomers did at the same age.

Yes and for the younger generations it will be even worse!

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3 minutes ago, kzb said:

Older people never thought of it like that when we bought

Strange the older gen seem to be the ones popping up with 'my home is my pension' and being BTLs so pls just stop chucking out the hey ho its you guys routine or we don't think like you.

25 yr mortgage at 25 means 50. Its still earlier than 60s as for a 36 yr old doing same.

I'll be blunt - people have chucked out a wealth of evidence and backed up their statements repeatedly. Your counter claims keep getting picked apart so either this is deliberate or just denial on a Trumpian scale.

Were you paid off your mortgage within 25 years of taking it out / prior to 60 without remortgaging or other such deflections? If not was it because you bought later than 30?

As a milennial I fear for the poor sofs behind us unless things crash and that probably means even more pain in our gen anyway - those who've taken massive debt getting wiped out / that boomer inheritance we keep hearing about evapourating but damage pre-done

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