Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

UK inflation... where will it go within 12 months? I suspect 6-8%


Recommended Posts

Inflation of what though......asset prices, goods and services or wages?

Inflation requires people to borrow money, to invest in growth......where is the demand for debt and growth going to come from?;)

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 296
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

10 minutes ago, winkie said:

Inflation of what though......asset prices, goods and services or wages?

Inflation requires people to borrow money, to invest in growth......where is the demand for debt and growth going to come from?;)

Ask the Gov and Bank of England... building back better, apparently, by re-running the house price bubble that delivered a huge crash last time around. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, gruffydd said:

Ask the Gov and Bank of England... building back better, apparently, by re-running the house price bubble that delivered a huge crash last time around. 

Selling houses is the most efficient way to print money, bankers put a number on their loan book ending in lots of zeros and put it on the balance sheet as an asset. Hence why the government is so keen on housing inflation!

Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought stocks were a hedge against inflation...why are my steady Eddie stocks down so much today.  Most businesses should be able to ride out inflation...isn't that true anymore???

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

Time to start shorting builders and estate agents? And possibly banks/lenders?

Toilet paper stocks soon, I have no doubt about it.  Printy printy money machine go wirr, monkey see monkey buy.  Monkey go bankrupt 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Wayward said:

I thought stocks were a hedge against inflation...why are my steady Eddie stocks down so much today.  Most businesses should be able to ride out inflation...isn't that true anymore???

they are in the long term but not in the short term

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Wayward said:

I thought stocks were a hedge against inflation...why are my steady Eddie stocks down so much today.  Most businesses should be able to ride out inflation...isn't that true anymore???

Some, not all. See cyclical and defensive stocks as a reference point to beat inflation. But i hear some II's are bullish on consumer and commodities this time. Trick is to find good value companies avoid overvalued tech stock. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 24/04/2021 at 08:04, bodgittandscarper said:

We have never been busier and it's the same for all trades I know. Everyone is doing up their house, everyone is fighting to get a tradesman and materials. I'm in a rich area, and it's like the pandemic never happened.

This is what a lot of posters on here miss - the pandemic has decimated some people and business but others - many others - are booming.

It has widened inequalities - but for the luckier half they have more money than they have ever done.

The post pandemic landscape is very complex - but as always HPC overstates the doom and gloom and then everyone gets shocked when reality doesn’t pan out as badly. 🙄

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/05/2021 at 17:12, Wayward said:

I thought stocks were a hedge against inflation...why are my steady Eddie stocks down so much today.  Most businesses should be able to ride out inflation...isn't that true anymore???

Depends upon the source of the inflation.  

They are a hedge against money printing because they own and do real things : a quarry is still full of valuable stone whether the government prints money or not.

However, real economy supply side issues hurt them : for example, a hurricane that destroys crops pushes up food prices but that causes problems for businesses that find supply problems and can’t pass on the costs.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

This is what a lot of posters on here miss - the pandemic has decimated some people and business but others - many others - are booming.

It has widened inequalities - but for the luckier half they have more money than they have ever done.

The post pandemic landscape is very complex - but as always HPC overstates the doom and gloom and then everyone gets shocked when reality doesn’t pan out as badly. 🙄

It's very difficult to predict how governments might respond... in this example, the stimulus has been overdone, so however busy some may be, the result (inflation and higher IRs) is rather doomy and gloomy! 

Link to post
Share on other sites

"Last week, Haldane was the only member of the Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee in favour of reining in stimulus, casting a lone vote to cut the overall size of the Bank’s £895bn bond-buying scheme by £50bn." due to concerns over inflation. 

The Bank of England failing as usual... nothing new there then. It really is nothing but the same old story with that bunch... where stolid thinking dominates whereas it should be systemic thinking. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Crisp inflation is something I have also noticed. Six pack of Walkers Max used to often be on offer for a quid, won't find it for less than £1.25 offer price. Poundland four pack makes me laugh.

Also I know this place is boiled rice and veggie central but takeaways are very expensive. Noticed it in curry particularly. Eat in price of a standard Rogan Josh at one place near me in small town £14! Swear the standard curries would be eight or so quid a few years ago. Got two takeaway menus for local place, one maybe three years older, price differences in some cases around 20 percent.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Jolly Roger said:

Crisp inflation is something I have also noticed. Six pack of Walkers Max used to often be on offer for a quid, won't find it for less than £1.25 offer price. Poundland four pack makes me laugh.

Also I know this place is boiled rice and veggie central but takeaways are very expensive. Noticed it in curry particularly. Eat in price of a standard Rogan Josh at one place near me in small town £14! Swear the standard curries would be eight or so quid a few years ago. Got two takeaway menus for local place, one maybe three years older, price differences in some cases around 20 percent.

Stop buying or buy less of......or find other better ways......I am finding ingredients are being replaced with cheaper ingredients, shrinkage like smaller packets, less weight and volume all becoming so obvious now in almost every product......time to think about growing food and creating own dishes.......there becomes a point when people will refuse to pay the price and will never go back.😉

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, gruffydd said:

It's very difficult to predict how governments might respond... in this example, the stimulus has been overdone, so however busy some may be, the result (inflation and higher IRs) is rather doomy and gloomy! 

Yes - but HPC posters don’t live in a world of slightly higher inflation, they prefer to start a poll with the question “when will the hyperinflationary collapse happen?” With the only options “2022, 2023 or it’s already started”

Over the 14 years I’ve been on this site I have lost count of the number of predications of complete economic collapse and starvation, always 12-18 months away and never happened…

Link to post
Share on other sites

We wont have a Venuzuela type situation scottbeards just get used to more shrinkflation and tax rises. Ive expected a 70s Scenario for at least 15 years but its not happened, thevplates havent stopped spinning yet. I have just seen a Vodafone advert and it says CPi +3.9% increase . Who allows this ? Is it Ofcom ?

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Jolly Roger said:

Crisp inflation is something I have also noticed. Six pack of Walkers Max used to often be on offer for a quid, won't find it for less than £1.25 offer price. Poundland four pack makes me laugh.

Also I know this place is boiled rice and veggie central but takeaways are very expensive. Noticed it in curry particularly. Eat in price of a standard Rogan Josh at one place near me in small town £14! Swear the standard curries would be eight or so quid a few years ago. Got two takeaway menus for local place, one maybe three years older, price differences in some cases around 20 percent.

Our currency has devalued a lot against other international currencies since 2016, so you'd expect this to filter through to inflation over the subsequent years. It can't not do so.

However, the BoE will look through it, mostly. Maybe a few bps here or there but we won't be raising rates all that much in a hurry.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Our currency has devalued a lot against other international currencies since 2016, so you'd expect this to filter through to inflation over the subsequent years. It can't not do so.

However, the BoE will look through it, mostly. Maybe a few bps here or there but we won't be raising rates all that much in a hurry.

Pound is currently a whisker below pre Brexit vote levels.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Pound is currently a whisker below pre Brexit vote levels.

GBP was just recovering from the 2008 crisis which impacted our currency a lot more than others. In 2015 it was finally beginning to claw back some ground towards the pre 2008 levels. Then the referendum was announced and it was downhill from there.

You don't get to devalue your currency for free, it must come with inflation, otherwise everyone would do it a lot more.

Edited by dugsbody
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.