Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

UK inflation... where will it go within 12 months? I suspect 6-8%


Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, msi said:

What's your reasoning behind this (other than having one / thinking of one?)

Extending homes means people don't need to move thus improving supply 

New homes are VAT free

VAT on Renovations means old its cheaper to bulldoze old buildings rather then repurpose.  An old mansion was bulldozed to make new way for horrible new flats for example  

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 296
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

On 25/04/2021 at 13:14, gruffydd said:

This time I suspect the main tactic will be "this is only temporary"... until we hit 4% and it continues rising - that is when the government will move into panic mode. 

honestly, if inflation goes above 4%, the uk is stuffed. either ir's rise = hpc, or the pound is toast

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, andrewwk said:

honestly, if inflation goes above 4%, the uk is stuffed. either ir's rise = hpc, or the pound is toast

Yes, interest rates would have to rise to keep the pound worth a pound in comparison to other major currencies.....;)

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Just reading this article from the Us on house building material inflation, and I wonderered what the uk situation was . It appears to avg 1.5  mom & 6% yoy in the Uk 

 Soaring lumber prices add $36,000 to the cost of a new home, and a fierce land grab is only making it worse

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/soaring-lumber-prices-add-36000-to-the-cost-of-a-new-home.html

 

Monthly statistics of (uk) building materials and components: February 2021

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/966124/21-cs3_-_Construction_Building_Materials_-_Commentary_February_2021.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/building-materials-and-components-monthly-statistics-2012

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 26/04/2021 at 22:50, andrewwk said:

honestly, if inflation goes above 4%, the uk is stuffed. either ir's rise = hpc, or the pound is toast

Real inflation, which correctly measures how long it will take you to reach a comfortable retirement has been above 4% for years. 

They just choose not to measure it this way.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 26/04/2021 at 14:35, GenZ said:

Extending homes means people don't need to move thus improving supply 
 

People are extending now because it's cheaper than moving upwards - they can't see that the MadGainz just screws them over

On 26/04/2021 at 14:35, GenZ said:

New homes are VAT free

They are subject to SDLT.  If you wanted to build your own without VAT, simply create a shell company to do the work.

 

On 26/04/2021 at 14:35, GenZ said:

VAT on Renovations means old its cheaper to bulldoze old buildings rather then repurpose.  An old mansion was bulldozed to make new way for horrible new flats for example 

Unless you have a massive cash pile, you will need to borrow to bulldoze and rebuild at commercial rates - any VAT saving is wiped out by the gurantees and IR.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Real inflation, which correctly measures how long it will take you to reach a comfortable retirement has been above 4% for years. 

They just choose not to measure it this way.

 

yes, so imagine what real inflation would look like if the headline figure is 4%...

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 26/04/2021 at 22:50, andrewwk said:

honestly, if inflation goes above 4%, the uk is stuffed. either ir's rise = hpc, or the pound is toast

The pound being toast is already baked in. It's too late for any other options.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Si1 said:

Yahoo Finance: Warren Buffett on inflation: We're raising prices and it's being accepted.

 

Thanks for sharing - it has gone mental in my world - and I work across many sectors right now! And he's right... these price increases are being priced in. And the wage stuff follows. We are living in crazy times - and not in a good way. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 01/05/2021 at 11:11, Saving For a Space Ship said:

 

Just reading this article from the Us on house building material inflation, and I wonderered what the uk situation was . It appears to avg 1.5  mom & 6% yoy in the Uk 

 Soaring lumber prices add $36,000 to the cost of a new home, and a fierce land grab is only making it worse

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/soaring-lumber-prices-add-36000-to-the-cost-of-a-new-home.html

 

Monthly statistics of (uk) building materials and components: February 2021

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/966124/21-cs3_-_Construction_Building_Materials_-_Commentary_February_2021.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/building-materials-and-components-monthly-statistics-2012

There are actually some serious material shortages right now in the UK which will hit house building - supply chains screwed up - partly because of massive demand in places that are booming in Asia. Mental! 

And mark my words - wages will follow of there will be revolutionary change... actually we are already seeing major wage inflation in hospitality/restaurants, I suspect... and that will flow elsewhere. 

Edited by gruffydd
Link to post
Share on other sites

Tesco mobile 50% rise in price of cheap mobile phone. The IMo dash was £6.99 2 weeks ago. Today £9.99 Dont like Tesco as a shop find the prices of some things over the top. Meringue nests are 0.99 in Aldi £1.69 in  Tesco.

Edited by hughjass
Link to post
Share on other sites

the crisp investigator: 

Was in Poundland yesterday. I had never seen ‘4 packs’ of walkers (25g packs too). But they are now here, and obvs for a pound, given the location.

I haven’t seen 6 packs of walkers for a £1 deals (3 for £3 type ones)for a while - Morrison’s and the local coop used to always have them. All £1.25 (2 for £2.50) now when on offer. Which makes them a better deal than the Poundland one, but 25% inflation in crisps is here. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

the crisp investigator: 

Was in Poundland yesterday. I had never seen ‘4 packs’ of walkers (25g packs too). But they are now here, and obvs for a pound, given the location.

I haven’t seen 6 packs of walkers for a £1 deals (3 for £3 type ones)for a while - Morrison’s and the local coop used to always have them. All £1.25 (2 for £2.50) now when on offer. Which makes them a better deal than the Poundland one, but 25% inflation in crisps is here. 

I bet you're fun to sit opposite to in the office.

e4696ae3f644c74ba8a3d1f8dd69aac3.gif

 

Edited by Si1
Link to post
Share on other sites

From the last decade we know that TPTB are quite happy to 'look through' the highely massaged figure hitting around the 5% mark.

The only question is how much higher, and much more massaging they can do to make the figure look lower to begin with.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

the crisp investigator: 

Was in Poundland yesterday. I had never seen ‘4 packs’ of walkers (25g packs too). But they are now here, and obvs for a pound, given the location.

I haven’t seen 6 packs of walkers for a £1 deals (3 for £3 type ones)for a while - Morrison’s and the local coop used to always have them. All £1.25 (2 for £2.50) now when on offer. Which makes them a better deal than the Poundland one, but 25% inflation in crisps is here. 

Looking for walkers is the first mistake, Lidl snaktastic and pick up a 24 pack.

Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I bet you're fun to sit opposite to in the office.

e4696ae3f644c74ba8a3d1f8dd69aac3.gif

 

Where did you get that footage? I’m claiming a copy under the data protection act. 

Edited by Frugal Git
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

Where did you get that footage? I’m claiming a copy under the data protection act. 

It's from your work PC's webcam

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Si1 said:

It's from your work PC's webcam

That would be difficult, given the ultrawide I use doesn’t have one. And neither does either of the ones flanking it. 

declare your hidden camera or face the consequences of a claim under the act.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

That would be difficult, given the ultrawide I use doesn’t have one. And neither does either of the ones flanking it. 

declare your hidden camera or face the consequences of a claim under the act.  

It's ok I'm from the KGB

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.